Birmingham Hall Green
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16799 (38%)
Liberal Democrat: 12608 (28.5%)
Conservative: 7892 (17.8%)
Other: 6931 (15.7%)
Majority: 4191 (9.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10590 (30.7%)
Labour: 16304 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6682 (19.3%)
UKIP: 960 (2.8%)
Majority: 5714 (16.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11401 (34.5%)
Labour: 18049 (54.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 2926 (8.8%)
UKIP: 708 (2.1%)
Majority: 6648 (20.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13952 (33.4%)
Labour: 22372 (53.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4034 (9.6%)
Referendum: 1461 (3.5%)
Majority: 8420 (20.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Stephen McCabe(Labour) Will contest Birmingham Selly Oak at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Jo Barker (Conservative) Born 1968, Banbury. Educated at Liverpool University. Managing Director of family property business.
Roger Godsiff (Labour) born 1946, London. Educated at Catford Comprehensive School. Former bank clerk and trade union official. Lewisham councillor 1971-1990. Contested Birmingham Yardley 1983. First elected as MP for Birmingham Small Heath 1992. MP for Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath since 1997.
Jerry Evans (Liberal Democrat) Self employed archaelogical consultant. Birmingham councillor.
Salma Yaqoob (Respect) Born 1971, Bradford. Birmingham councillor. Contested Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 108908
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 29.9%
Over 60: 15.7%
Born outside UK: 28.3%
White: 47.2%
Black: 4.9%
Asian: 43.5%
Mixed: 3%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 37.4%
Hindu: 4.2%
Muslim: 35.7%
Sikh: 3.9%
Full time students: 6.2%
Graduates 16-74: 22%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36.8%
Owner-Occupied: 62.1%
Social Housing: 21.6% (Council: 10.8%, Housing Ass.: 10.8%)
Privately Rented: 12.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 21.1%
The increasingly positive mood in the Respect Party camp in this seat referred to by PragueTory as misplaced is based on the fact that they believe they have the best candidate and who is attracting the most momentum.
Respect delivered 40,000 leaflets across the constituency promoting Yaqoob’s appearance on QT, which it did with some trepidation as her appearance could have backfired. In the event it was highly successful and there has been good feedback across the constituency, new contacts made and activists coming together. The traditional models of voter behaviour simply do not apply in this constituency. Respect is still a relatively new Party and Yaqoob a new type of candidate. Respect are beginning to make contact with a whole layer of people who would be unlikely to vote if there was not a significant choice different from the stale old three parties in an election. Therefore, projections based on old models of turnout of the faithful in the three party system simply will not be accurate if, and yes it is is a big “if”, Yaqoob can galvanise a significant body into realising she genuinely has a chance of upsetting the applecart. After all with a Tory/LibDem council and a Labour government, who are people meant to blame for the mess the country and their locality is in? The expenses scandal reinforces the scepticism of many voters about the three traditional parties and their tweedledee/tweedledum approach. In the past many of those disillusioned by the whole thing would not bother to vote, but in this seat, Respect is no longer about a ‘protest vote’ but a serious attempt to win the seat from a substantial base.
The division and competition between the three traditional parties is also going to help Respect here – the Tories are not seriously in with a chance in the general, but have something to gain in the locals and their vote is likely to pick up due to the national swing, largely from people who were planning to vote anyway and in the last few elections probably voted either LibDem or Lab. The LibDem and Labour votes will decline due to some switching to the Tories and to minor parties. The more the three traditional parties compete with each other the more likelihood there is for Yaqoob to emerge through the middle and snatch the seat probably on a very low percentage, which reinforces the case for PR of course.
I have just watched Salma getting the better of Nigel Farage on the politics show in a debate about Muslim women wearing veils. I have previously said that I think Salma must be in the next Parliament but as I was watching it I thought that much as I disagree with Nigel Farage on just about everything he ought to be in Parliament too. He would certainly be entertaining and who would miss Bercow?
Hardly up to us whether so-and-so “should be in the next Parliament” though, is it. Nor is it relevant to this site.
“Hardly up to us whether so-and-so “should be in the next Parliament” though, is it. ”
No, it’s up to the voters in each constituency to choose between the candidates in their constituency.
“Nor is it relevant to this site.”
Depends on whether you believe that the candidate does make a difference or whether the voters are solely voting for party lines based on national figures.
All the mainstream parties trade heavily on personality and the notion of a national TV debate will reinforce it. Therefore it is perfectly appropriate for Respect to say: “in this seat you have a choice between Salma Yaqoob, Roger Godsiff and Jerry Evans* – which one do you think is likely to make the most impact as your MP? We believe that Salma stands head and shoulders above the other candidates.”
Salma is the formal national leader of the Respect Party by the way.
* and whatever the name of the Tory is …
Salma Yaqoob reports on her meeting and support from members of the Green Party last weekend, and other issues, on her new blog http://www.salmayaqoob.com/
In the Poplar and Limehouse thread, Pete Whitehead said
“I believe that in Birmingham Hall Green the Greens have entred into an effective pact with Respect.” (hence my putting my response to his comments in this thread)
Looking at Salma Yakoob’s blog, I’m not sure it is ‘an effective pact’. Certainly if SY is to be believed (and I have no reason to disbelieve her), then the local Green Party has positively decided not to oppose her, but what I don’t know is what their motives were, and whether they have any expectation or promise of reciprocation (or whether it is reciprocation for Salma’s earlier support for GP candidates in the Euro Election).
Other quite plausible motivations include not having enough money to stand everyowhere (parties without millionaire backers have to worry about what they can afford, Pete). Another is likely to be that Birmingham Green Party is focussing its effort on a different party of the city, and would quite like Lab/Tory/LDs to be fighting hard against Salma in Hall Green, rather than putting the effort in against Green Party candidates elsewhere in the city. Neither of those motivations would amount to a pact.
But at the same time, it is quite possible that there is a pact between SY and BGP: I simply don’t know.
Pete goes on to call Respect ‘extreme left’. Starting from a UKIP perspective, of course, all sorts of positions may appear to be ‘extreme left’. From where I sit, in the Green Party, given the relationship between Birmingham GP and Salma Y, welcome news comes from Prinkipo Exile (again in that Poplar and Limehouse thread) that “the Socialist Workers Party are no longer part of Respect”. From where I am, the SWP is extreme (even if I prefer to avoid ‘left’ and ‘right’ labels), and I would be much more wary of any GP pact with a ‘Respect’ that still included the SWP, than ‘Respect’ without the SWP.
Pete also said “We appear to be getting a bit confused here as far as which parties are beyond the pale in terms of being suitable to form pacts with and those which are so far beyond the pale that pacts should be formed against them.” Certainly they are two different questions, but they are linked: if a party is “so far beyond the pale that pacts should be formed against them.” then clearly no respectable party should entertain forming a pact with them. As it happens, even though I believe the BNP is far beyond the pale, I don’t think it is obligatory for parties to form pacts against them (and the evidence that such pacts might be counter-productive helps inform my view): on the other hand, I do think no respectable party should entertain forming a pact with them.
Anyway, back to Birmingham Hall Green: does anyone have more info about the relationship between Salma Y and the Green Party (local, regional or national?).
Should this be considered a 4way marginal?
“Should this be considered a 4way marginal?”
No. The tories are irrelevant – this is very much a 3way marginal.
On the issue of a “pact” between the Green Party and Respect – there is none in Hall Green. The local Green Party consulted its members and decided to stand down unconditionally. The majority reasoning was hopefully that this was a marginal seat that Salma Yaqoob, whose views the Greens agree with a lot of, was in with a definite chance of winning and the Greens would be better off fighting elsewhere. The national leader of the Green Party made it clear that she hoped that members would do this. However I am sure that the other issues Ben Foley puts forward may also have been a factor.
A pact however would involve some reciprocation and there is none. Respect has however made it clear that it is backing Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion, but this is similarly unconditional. The majority of Respect candidates in the General Election will face Green Party opposition, including in the other two target seats in Tower Hamlets (Respect believes it is in a position of having a realistic chance of three seats at the General Election). Some in the Green Party believe that the Greens should have stood down in Tower Hamlets but this was not a majority view. There has been a wider discussion on the left in Manchester about not standing against each other and this has been achieved in three seats – Respect is calling for a Green vote in Manchester Central, where the Green candidate is also calling for a vote for the Respect candidate in Blackley and Broughton. There will also be a number of council seats where the Greens and Respect will not oppose each other and Respect will be supporting the Greens in their most winnable council seat. However the SWP have not gone along with this and there are still further developments awaited in Manchester Gorton.
The gap between Lab and Tory here is just over 20%, less than the two other South Birmingham constituencies.
Yes, like Poplar, thats artificial due to Respect but for the moment its technically possible for the Tories to come through the middle should Respect hold up or even rise.
Prinkipo Exile demonstrates that as usual the Green Party is nothing more than a front for the extreme left of British politics.
Any Conservative thinking of backing the Greens out of some misunderstanding that they are just harmless fruitcakes who talk a lot about cosy countryside issues should be very clear what they really stand for-and that is the most unreconstructed socialist utopia.
Shaun – true. It’s interesting that back in 1992, the only seats the Greens polled over 1,000 votes were shire Tory safe seats. Presumably Cameron types. But since Peter Cranie (a Scottish ex-Labour activist who was almost a nw MEP) became their National Organiser, they’ve tacked Left and piled up votes and Cllrs in Manc, Lpool etc as well as their campus cllrs in Oxford, Norwich, Lancaster.
Lancs Observer,
Presumably you would put Green councillors in York and Sheffield and Leeds and Bradford and Bristol and Leicester and Cambridge down to this ‘campus’ effect (I’m not sure it is a fair explanation in any of those cases).
Even if there is a ‘campus’ effect, there are an awful lot of campuses these days (more than LibDem MPs).
But of course there are more Green Party councillors in Brighton and Hove than could be accounted for by the ‘campus’ effect you suggest – presumably that is why you didn’t include B&H in that list (there are also more in Lancaster, Oxford and Norwich, than can honestly be dismissed as a campus effect come to that).
How do you explain the Green Party group on Stroud District, or Mid Suffolk, or Braintree, or Watford, or Rushcliffe, or Camden, or Lewisham, or Wealden, or Torridge, or Kirklees, or Scarborough? Or the councillors on Waveney, East Lindsey, Hackney, Islington, Lambeth, Southwark, North Somerset, Totnes, Herefordshire, Malvern Hills or Solihull councils? (and I haven’t included Scotland because the Scottish Green Party is a separate party).
There seem to be Greens on more councils that don’t fit with your theories than ones that do.
I would not be surprised if the Lib Dems gained this seat whilst simultaneously losing the neighbouring seat of Solihull.