thetorydiary

On Radio 4's The World This Weekend, former Northern Ireland First Minister David Trimble and now Tory peer has said that it is increasingly unlikely that Peter Robinson will survive the week as Stormont's most senior politician. He noted that he had not receiving the backing of any of his senior Democratic Unionist Party colleagues. If there are fresh elections for the NI Assembly Baron Trimble predicted that Conservatives and Unionists could emerge as the leading party. The DUP is almost certain not to agree to the devolution of policing and that, alongside the turmoil in the DUP could lead to fresh elections or direct rule on a temporary basis.

It is possible that the events in Northern Ireland could have a major impact on the outcome of the UK General Election. The serious tensions in the DUP could produce defections to the new Conservative and Unionist alliance and/or aid the prospects of our candidates in the province.  David Cameron is a big supporter of the alliance and has promised to campaign for Tory and Unionist candidates during the General Election campaign. Last April the Conservative leader said that he wanted "MPs from Northern Ireland serving in a Conservative Government at Westminster."

Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson spends huge amounts of time across the Irish Sea building the alliance. I happen to know he's been in Belfast for four of the last six days (unlike Shaun Woodward who spent a lot of time in London, shoring up support for Gordon Brown).

The investment that Cameron and Paterson have put into building relations with the UUP may turn out to be much more than a principled commitment to the integrity of the United Kingdom. Ten seats would be at the upper end of possibilities but the investment may pay big political dividends on polling day.

Tim Montgomerie

The precarious nature of the situation in Northern Ireland was illustrated horrifically on Friday with the attempted murder of a policeman by a dissident nationalist terror group. Constable Peadar Heffron remains critically ill and my thoughts and prayers are with him.

Earlier in the week, it was being reported in the Telegraph that the Savile Inquiry into the events of Bloody Sunday in Londonderry in 1972 would finally publish its conclusions before Christmas.

But today it has emerged that it will not be published until March 22nd next year, twelve years after it opened. Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun Woodward gave his reaction to the news on the Today Programme this morning and even he was forced to wonder: "Is there a better way that we might have done this?"

Now his shadow, Owen Paterson, has released the following statement:

"This inquiry has cost nearly £200million and it last took evidence in 2005. It is quite wrong for the families and soldiers involved that it should be delayed again. March 22nd is an absurd date to publish the report as it will either be in the run-up to a General Election or during the campaign period itself. This report should be published as soon as possible so that Northern Ireland can move on."

Jonathan Isaby

The Belfast News Letter reports this morning how the Democratic Unionist Party appears to be aping Labour's attacks on the Conservative Party.

It quotes DUP Assembly Member Simon Hamilton as saying that "no area of public expenditure could be safe from the savage cuts implemented by the Conservative Party".

He goes on to say that the DUP "will oppose tooth and nail any attempt to hack away at public spending here no matter what the source, whether it be the current Labour Government or a future Tory one".

This is evidence of the DUP's statist, Left-wing instincts, if ever it were needed.

The Northern Ireland Conservative and Unionists campaign director, Neil Johnston, has responded by accusing the DUP of wanting to "foster resentment within the UK over public spending":

"The Conservatives are clear that public spending in the UK needs to be allocated on a needs-based formula. We want Northern Ireland people to be treated as equal citizens... Frankly, Mr Hamilton's remarks are more fitting for a Scottish, Welsh or even Irish nationalist - not someone who believes the Union is for the good of all of us."

Jonathan Isaby

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