Under its new leader Tony Abbott, the Australian Liberals are calling for a national debate on the level of immigration into Australia.
Kevin Andrews, the Liberal Party's new spokesman on families and community affairs, has called for an end to the Labor government's "big Australia" policy. The Age reports:
"Senior Opposition frontbencher Kevin Andrews has called for a debate on slashing Australia's immigration from 180,000 people a year to a ''starting point'' of just 35,000. In his first interview since returning to the shadow cabinet as spokesman on families and community affairs, the former immigration minister questioned the ''blithe'' acceptance of projections that the population will hit 35 million by 2050...
Arguing that Australians were deeply concerned about problems such as urban sprawl, overcrowding, traffic snarls and dwindling water supplies, Mr Andrews challenged Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's advocacy of ''a big Australia''. ''If you look at the 2008 data, you would need about 35,000 immigrants on top of births to replace the population (for that year). So I say the starting point should be replacement levels of population, then ask what additional population we need so the country can be economically and otherwise sustainable and growing,'' he said."
British Conservatives have been irritated by President Sarkozy in recent times. He has fiercely opposed the decision of David Cameron to take Tory MEPs into a more free market, less federalist grouping in the European Parliament. He has celebrated the appointment of a French EU Commissioner who has the aim of "clamping down" on the City of London's financial dominance. More recently he was putting on a 'best friends act' with Gordon Brown as the two agreed on plans to impose a super tax on banker bonuses.
Time magazine believes that the left-wing drift of Sarkozy is part of a wider pattern of "ideological confusion":
"Who is Nicolas Sarkozy? The answer depends on when you study him. Is he the man elected President in May 2007, who immediately set out to lower income taxes, scrap France's 35-hour workweek, revoke special retirement privileges for public-transport workers, and harangue employees to "work more to earn more"? Or is he the leader who in the past year has slapped down greedy bankers, fumed at U.S. and British resistance to French plans for strict new regulations of the global finance sector, and preached the gospel of "moralizing capitalism"? Is he the man, a son of a Hungarian immigrant, who, newly elected, challenged French pretense of color-blind égalité by arguing for American-style affirmative action? Or is he the leader who, facing critical regional elections next March, has begun openly courting voters of the extreme-right National Front with a crackdown on illegal aliens and a divisive national debate on immigration and French identity?"
The confusion is evident in foreign policy, particularly in the area of human rights:
"Sarkozy pledged to place human rights at the top of his list of requirements for diplomatic partners before he was elected but that quickly gave way to an embrace of leaders like Muammar Gaddafi from Libya and Bashar al-Assad from Syria, state trips to pal around with African dictators, and a congratulatory call to Vladimir Putin after his party's December 2007 success in legislative elections marred by accusations of corruption. "What a strange conception of international affairs when you'd criticize someone for his election victory, and the next day ask him to help you solve the crisis with Iran, with Darfur, and lower tensions in the world," Sarkozy told a January 2008 press conference when challenged on the call. "You consider it normal that I'd insult Mr. Putin by saying his victory was illegitimate, then ask the same illegitimate Putin to help solve the world's problems?"
Time concludes that Sarkozy may be representing the confusion at the heart of France generally:
"In many ways, Sarkozy reflects the contradictions of the French themselves: demanding both free markets and social job protection, wanting modernity and tradition, and wanting fast results with no pain. But those are the very hypocrisies voters elected Sarkozy to combat with his own viable vision for France — not take on for use as his own, inconsistent governing style."
His approval rating is down to 39% from 60% according to Ipsos. It is falling fastest among conservatives.
Just days after Tony Abbott became leader of Australia's centre right opposition in controversial circumstances, his party has won two federal by-elections, caused by the retirement of two senior members of his own party. The Sydney Morning Herald described the twin victories as "comfortable":
"Just days after Mr Abbott won the Liberal leadership from Malcolm Turnbull, the party coasted to victory in the Melbourne seat of Higgins, vacated by former treasurer Peter Costello, and the north Sydney electorate of Bradfield, formerly held by Brendan Nelson. The solid performance surprised many who thought the Liberals might suffer a backlash due to Mr Abbott's decision to overhaul the party's climate changing policy, withdrawing support for the introduction of an emissions trading scheme (ETS), which is favoured by Labor."
The Age (another left-leaning newspaper) concluded that Tony Abbott's "opposition to Labor's emissions trading scheme has support in the conservative heartland."
The Australian's Editor-at-Large Paul Kelly profiles the unpredictable 'Abbot effect' here:
"This week Tony Abbott smashed the mould of Australian politics. With the opposition divided and behind, he is forcing Kevin Rudd to an election on climate change, the issue that is supposedly owned by the Labor Party. This is either brilliance or sheer folly. Abbott does not accept the orthodoxies that have governed politics during the Rudd ascendancy, and this makes him dangerous for both Labor and Liberal. Abbott is an unpredictable and elemental force who defies the modern political rule book. No adviser can tell Abbott what to say or how to say it. After being elected Liberal leader by surprise, Abbott spent the rest of week throwing political grenades -- supporting individual workplace contracts, backing a nuclear power debate and killing the emissions trading scheme -- while his colleagues held their breath wondering how the public would react."
Opponents of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will gather in Rome today as part of 'No Berlusconi Day', a day of protests almost entirely organised by bloggers, twitterers and Facebook users.
Italy's controversial leader is facing problems on many fronts:
The latest suggest that he has a history of links to the Sicilian Mafia, and that his former party, Forza Italia, was part-funded by the Mafia. He has dismissed the claims as "ridiculous, unfounded and infamous”.
Hi wife, Veronica Lario, is demanding a divorce settlement of £39 million a year.
Patrizia D’Addario (website), an escort, has published a book that in some detail recounts her alleged sexual experiences with Mr Berlusconi.
A ruling by Italy's constitutional court means that he will go to trial
for allegedly having bribed UK lawyer, David Mills (estranged husband
of Labour MP, Tessa Jowell). Mr Berlusconi had passed a law to give him
immunity from prosecution but the court has overturned that law.
The Economist reports that Mr Berlusconi's business empire is also under threat from the courts: "A Milan court asked Fininvest, the company at the heart of Mr Berlusconi’s business empire, for a €750m ($1.1 billion) bank guarantee. This was to show it could pay damages awarded to CIR, the holding company of Mr Berlusconi’s arch-rival, Carlo De Benedetti, in a case after the battle in the 1990s over the Mondadori publishing house. Fininvest’s lawyer was found to have bribed a judge to favour its bid. Mr Berlusconi’s company is appealing against the award, but if it fails, it may have to sell assets."
Ultimately the courts will probably move too slowly to oust Berlusconi but there are now signs of unhappiness within his right-wing coaltion. Gianfranco Fini, his junior partner in the 'Party of Liberty', was recorded saying that Berlusconi "confuses leadership with absolute monarchy". He continued that Mr Berlsconi was unable to distinguish between "popular consent, which he obviously has and which gives him a mandate to govern, and a sort of immunity from any other authority [such as] the magistracy, the audit court, the [top appeals court], the head of state or parliament".
Despite all of this Berlusconi remains popular. 49% of Italians approve of him in latest polls. But Fini is more popular. He has ratings of 60%. The Party of Liberty centre right coalition has an overall 48% to 42% opinion poll advantage over the centre left coalition.
Patrick Cusworth is a public affairs consultant and a member of Hornsey
and Wood Green Conservative Association. He supported the Australian
Liberal Party during the Queensland State elections in March 2009.
The Australian Liberal Party has elected Tony Abbott as its new leader, following a public loss of confidence in Malcolm Turnbull. Following a packed Canberra meeting of Liberal MPs, Abbott beat Turnbull by 42 votes to 41 after the initial favourite, shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, was eliminated in the first round of voting. Known as both a social and economic conservative, the London-born Mr Abbott becomes the Liberal’s third leader since the 2007 federal election defeat to the Australian Labor Party, after Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson last September.
Mr Turnbull, who at the beginning of the year was forced to endure ongoing threats of a challenge from former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello, said he was "naturally disappointed” by the result, and that there would now be a "pretty dramatic change in policy" within the Liberal Party. In particular, the issue of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is certain to prove a vital one in the build-up to Australia’s next federal election (which many have suggested could be called earlier than initially expected, despite the Prime Minister’s denials).
Mr Abbott has long been an outspoken critic of Turnbull’s decision to support Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's proposed legislation, with Turnbull appearing to be paying the price for failing to demonstrate sufficient concern for the potential economic impact of the scheme; that was despite securing amendments to the legislation which he claimed would have assisted farmers as well as saved “tens of thousands of jobs” and as much as $200 billion of investment.
Tony Abbott is one of the most conservative members of the Liberal Party, socially and economically. He is a fierce opponent of the Liberal Party's deal with Kevin Rudd on climate change. The Liberals have now had four leaders in two years. Anyone want to bet that it won't soon be five?
A General Election is very likely soon. Rudd enjoys very high approval ratings and the Liberals have rarely been more divided. Kevin Andrews MP, a Liberal critic of Turnbull, argues, however, that opposition to Rudd's green measures may give the Liberals a potent electoral issue.
Update: Speaking to a friend downunder he gave me this warning: "Climate change fundamentalism has wrecked our conservative coalition. Be careful it doesn't wreck yours."
It's a phenomenon that leading Democrats are encouraging. The White House, for example, is promoting the idea that popular talk radio host, Rush Limbaugh, is the real leader of the Republicans. They calculate that any association of his strong views will alienate moderate voters from the GOP.
Laura Ingraham, another top conservative radio star, is promoting a 'Ten for '10' list of policy objectives for candidates standing in next year's elections. She'll endorse candidates who sign up. A number already have, including Senator Jim DeMint and Steve Forbes. Fox News star Sean Hannity also has a list of ten issues. They include "keeping Gitmo open" and "expand[ing] coal mining".
The hottest right-wing star at the moment is another Fox News star, Glenn Beck. He is currently touring the country to sell-out crowds promoting his latest book, Arguing With Idiots. Beck famously told Fox viewers that Barack Obama hated white people:
As the internet develops we will see more blurring of the lines between media entities and political parties. The monopoly on comment is already broken. The conventional parties' monopolies of political fundraising and of running slates of candidates will be broken too as the barriers to entry get lower and lower. Moderate Republicans fear that the 'Coulterisation' of their party will accelerate with loud and hardline voices damaging their party's prospects.
As the Left rebuilds on the internet in Britain - following a likely defeat next year - Labour may be pulled from the centre by its own populist voices.
"The Liberal Party is in turmoil tonight following the resignation of six front benchers, including Tony Abbott and Senator Nick Minchin, after they refused to back Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's position on the controversial emissions trading scheme. Liberal frontbenchers Sophie Mirabella, Senator Eric Abetz, Tony Smith and Stephen Parry have also quit their positions over the ETS, leaving Malcolm Turnbull's future as leader in doubt. In a press conference tonight Mr Turnbull said he respected his colleagues' decision but the issue was now one of integrity and it would be irresponsible for the party to not take action on climate change."
Yesterday Mr Turnbull survived a leadership challenge from Kevin Andrews MP but other Liberal MPs may yet challenge their leader if polls continue to point to a landslide defeat.
Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian Liberal Party leader since September last year when he ousted Brendan Nelson, is likely to face a leadership challenge of his own in the next 24 hours. Mr Turnbull has caused fury and division within his party after forcing the party to support the Labour government's amended emissions trading scheme - amended by Turnbull. Pasted below are some key commentaries:
Sydney Morning Herrald: "Malcolm Turnbull's leadership has been taken to the brink after his decision to put his job on the line over climate change backfired when he was rolled by the backbench. In extraordinary scenes last night, Mr Turnbull declared he wanted to cut a deal with Labor on the emissions tradings scheme and if anybody was opposed, they should move a motion and challenge him."
The Australian: "Malcolm Turnbull last night threatened to quit the Liberal leadership if his party did not back his assessment that a majority of the Coalition supported an emissions trading scheme deal he had struck with the Rudd government. The Liberal leader laid down his "my way or the highway" ultimatum and closed the partyroom meeting after anti-ETS Coalition MPs, led by Senate leader Nick Minchin, refused to accept his calculation that the meeting had supported the ETS deal. "I am the leader, I have made the call," Mr Turnbull said at a news conference later. "If people are unhappy with the leader they can take whatever steps they deem to be appropriate.""
The Age: "Mr Turnbull told a news conference last night: ''The Opposition has today saved tens of thousands of Australian jobs, protected vital industries and secured energy supplies by forcing significant substantial improvements to the Rudd Government's emissions trading scsheme''. He said the deal showed the Opposition was sincere in its commitment on climate change."
***
Australian Prime Minister remains hugely popular in the latest polls. Kevin Rudd enjoys a 63% to 22% advantage over Mr Turnbull in terms of preferred Prime Minister rankings.
I am currently in Washington DC for the fourth annual gathering of organisations and thinkers from the English-speaking world - all broadly of the centre right - that are interested in developing new solutions to the problems of poverty. The gathering was launched by Iain Duncan Smith in 2005.
This year, about thirty people from a dozen organisations and five countries are here. Britain's Centre for Social Justice, America's Heritage Foundation,
President George W Bush's new Institute (which has already raised more than $200m), Canada's Institute for Marriage and Family, New Zealand's Maxim
Institute and Australia's Kevin Andrews MP are some of the key contributors. A new website has been launched by the Heritage Foundation's Jennifer Marshall - RestoringSocialJustice.com - to track what we are all doing. It's early days for the website but over time we hope it will grow into a useful resource for all conservative people interested in tackling social problems that have defeated the Left. It will record policy thinking, profile key thinkers and case study effective programmes.
Readers of the ToryDiary will know that I am seized with the enormous potential of compassionate conservatism and during this conference my excitement reached new heights. Deeper and deeper friendships are being formed by people who have given their lives to philanthropy, school reform, family policy, tackling crime and understanding welfare systems. An international movement is being built and the RSJ website will be its online home.
Sarah Palin's memoir, Going Rogue, is selling like hot cakes but the American fascination with the former Governor of Alaska is unlikely to see her become a contender for the nation's highest office.
Sarah Palin, talking to Oprah Winfrey, says she is not considering a presidential bid in 2012 (not yet, anyway): "“I’m concentrating on 2010,” when there will be midterm elections. Has she thought about running? “It’s not on my radar screen right now,” she said. Then again, she probably wouldn’t tell Oprah if she were, right? “No, I wouldn’t,” Ms. Palin acknowledged." [New York Times].
Moderate Republicans are said to be unhappy at Sarah Palin's re-emergence: "Moderate Republicans—yes, they are not yet extinct, though most are in hiding—scoff at Sarah Palin and wish she would go away. But she's not going away. This week she's going on-air with Barbara Walters and Oprah Winfrey to flog her new book, Going Rogue: An American Life, and to promote her brand of in-your-face, power-to-the-people conservatism." [Newsweek].
For the Republican Portillistas at NewMajority.com, Palin has celebrity but not credibility.
Loved by most Republicans and hated by most Democrats: "Ms. Palin remains highly popular among Republicans (69% favorable). But the Democrats' striking antipathy to the former governor—she has a 72% unfavorable rating among them—drives down her overall approval." [Matthew Continetti].
Independents are divided but could they be won over if she demonstrated substance on policy?: "In last month's Gallup poll, Ms. Palin had a 48% unfavorable and 41% favorable rating among independents. Not good, but not insurmountable. Flip those percentages, and they could be serving moose burgers in the White House in 2013. What drives independents' uncertainty is their feeling that Ms. Palin isn't up to the job." [Matthew Continetti].
The consensus is that she's unlikely to run: "Republicans have just edged ahead of Democrats in the polls and Mr Obama is suddenly looking as if he might be just a one-term President. But Mrs Palin is unlikely to become the candidate who can oust the man Oprah anointed as "the One"." [Toby Harnden].
For many she'll be a hero of movement conservatives but never anything else: “Palin will forever be a cult hero among conservatives, but I think it is unlikely she will ever hold public office again. In fact, I have concluded that she will never even run. In 20 years she will have earned a spot on the mountain with Buckley, Goldwater, and Limbaugh, but I don’t see her on a ballot again.” [A consultant quoted by Jim Geraghty].
All across America, including against Florida Governor Charlie Crist, conservative candidates are standing against more centrist Republican candidates as part of the anti-'RINO' phenomenon that took off in New York. 'RINO' equalling Republican In Name Only.
Rand Paul, son of libertarian Ron Paul, is the poster boy for this insurgent movement as he seeks to win the Republican nomination to be US Senate candidate for Kentucky.
This Wall Street Journal video overviews the Republican establishment's concerns that this will cause division in the party and that the conservative candidates favoured by grassroots Republicans will be easier for Democrats to beat than more moderate candidates.
In the video below Rand Paul explains why he opposes government bailout of car manufacturers:
The CDU/CSU-FDP coalition is enjoying something of a honeymoon after Angela Merkel successfully formed a new post-election coalition with the reformist FDP. The Social Democrats are down to 21% - half of their support in 1998.
The Irish government of Fianna Fáil's Brian Cowen is trailing Fine Gael by 35% to 25%.
The Czech ODS - Tory allies in the European Parliament - are slightly behind the Social Democrats (32% to 29%). The Czech election will take place next June.
The Tories' allies in Poland - the Law and Justice Party - are 48% to 28% behind Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform.
Geert Wilders' Freedom Party is currently leading public opinion in the Netherlands.
Sweden's centre right government led by Fredrik Reinfeldt is trailing the Social Democrats by 30% to 34%. Elections are due next September.
Click here for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing and here for ConInternational's previous snapshot summary. If you would like to subscribe to ComRes' European Opinion Briefing please email andrew@comres.eu.com.
A number of special elections were held in America last night; one year after Obama was elected America's 44th President.
The Democrats will want to say that last night's setbacks for their party were not a reflection on Barack Obama and it is true that most voters told pollsters that the President was not a big factor in their decision. However, it is also true that the magic that he sprinkled on American politics has gone. He stumped for the embattled Democratic Governor of New Jersey, Jon Corzine, five times during the campaign, twice as recently as Sunday. The President recorded ads for Corzine and Corzine used Obama constantly in his own ads. None of this was enough to save the Democrat from voter anger about taxes and general economic distress. The Republican Chris Christie won the Governorship by 49% to 45%. Jennifer Rubin writes:
"The White House will have a hard time saying this one doesn’t matter. Obama won the state by 14%. The Republicans in a only a year won the state back."
The Republican victory was even bigger in Virginia. The so-called purple swing state of Virginia has been trending to the Democrats for a number of years and it was one of Obama's biggest prizes last year. But the Republican candidate for Governor won a landslide victory yesterday. Bob McDonnell "steamrolled" his Democrat opponent by 59% to 41%. The GOP won all three Virginia-wide offices up for election. McDonnell made a promise not to raise taxes but to use efficiency savings to afford improvements to transport and schools. He also campaigned heavily against President Obama's proposed cap on greenhouse emissions (while backing more green jobs) and against plans to aid unionisation of Virginia's economy. As RealClearPolitics noted, however, McDonnell was a conservative who downplayed social issues, was relentlessly optimistic and asked Sarah Palin to stay out of the campaign. Ramesh Ponnuru offers one other lesson:
"One of the lessons he draws is that Republican candidates have to "finish the sentence." Instead of just saying that we have to keep taxes and spending low, and thus pleasing conservatives, he said, McDonnell explain how these policies would create jobs and "plug the hole in [the budget]." Too many Republican candidates, he says, forget to do that."
Exactly. Conservatives need to show how conservative themes have practical benefits.
The most disappointing result for conservatives and Republicans comes from New York state where a Democrat won after the Republican vote was split. ConInternational discussed this fascinating contest on Saturday. Conservatives will blame the party establishment for the defeat, saying that they were wrong to foist such a liberal candidate on them. Republican centrists will say that the tactics of insurgent grassroots conservatives have resulted in a Democrat winning a usually very safe Republican seat.
Mike Bloomberg was re-elected New York City's Mayor but his opponent ran him surprisingly close (51% to 46%). The New York Times attributes the closeness of the race to "his maneuver to undo the city’s term limits law and his extravagant campaign spending". Bloomberg out-spent his opponent by ten-to-one!
It looks like voters in the moderate state of Maine have narrowly overturned a law that legalised same-sex marriage.
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