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Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Tory fighting fund may be three times bigger than Labour's

ConHome's quick, daily guide to the General Election campaign.

Tories could spend twice or even three times as much as Labour. The Times had the story of the day with speculation that the Conservatives might be able to spend two to three times as much as Labour on the election campaign. Expect Labour to accuse the Tories of 'buying' the electorate.

Screen shot 2010-01-05 at 18.13.03 There is renewed speculation about Gordon Brown's position as Labour leader. Channel 4's Gary Gibbon has the story. There is probably a majority of Labour MPs who accept that Brown is a loser but no majority behind an alternative candidate. We are too close to an election now unless one Labour figure can have a Michael Howard-style coronation as leader. Otherwise the electorate will look at a leadership contest with disdain, even disgust.

Nick Clegg refuses to be drawn on coalition thinking. In his most important intervention of the campaign so far the Liberal Democrat leader wrote that there would be "no backroom deals or under-the-counter “understandings” with either of the other two parties." A key message for the Tories in LD/Con marginals is that a vote for Clegg might keep Labour in by the back door.

Greg Clark and Nick Herbert were the Tory stars of the day. Nick Herbert got good coverage this morning for his pledge to create a supermarket ombudsman to prevent large retailers from abusing their market position. [Unfortunately that looks like another quango to me though]. And Greg Clark has got big coverage all afternoon for riding the cold weather stories with a dire warning about dangerously low gas reserves.

Screen shot 2010-01-05 at 17.53.26 The Tory poster campaign continues to get lots of attention. The Mail tells us it is costing £500,000. The Times reports that Mrs Cameron approved the photo. The Times' Sam Coates explores whether the image of the Tory leader was airbrushed. Who says politics is trivial?

Alistair Darling refused to rule out increasing VAT to 20%. I missed this story yesterday. Sorry! I will check Danny Finkelstein's blog even more frequently from now on. It had been reported that Labour planned to frighten voters with allegations of secret Tory plans for a VAT hike. That will be impossible if they can't rule it out themselves.

Tim Montgomerie

> Yesterday's General Election Brief

Posted at 18:20 in General Election Brief | | Comments (14)

Greg Clark warns that the UK has only eight days of gas storage remaining

CLARK GREG 2 That is the alarming news coming today from Greg Clark, the Shadow Energy and Climate Change Secretary. Figures he has obtained suggest the country's storage level of gas, at today’s level of demand, equates to 8.1 days. it comes after the National Grid issued a warning to energy providers yesterday - for only the second time in history - that demand for gas is threatening to outstrip supply.

He has been swift to attack the Government for failing to be prepared:

”This alert is just a taste of what’s to come as a result of Labour's negligence. Gas supply shortages are already being predicted in the North West and East Midlands and at today’s level of demand we only have enough stored gas for another 8 days worth of supply.

“I have repeatedly warned that Britain lacks the essential back-up plans needed for situations like this one. The Government has had its head in the sand on this issue for 12 years.

“When will the Government understand we need more storage capacity and the ability to get gas to consumers so nobody has to face the possibility of going without gas during cold snaps like this one?”

> Dr Clark highlighted his concerns about gas storage levels in a Commons debate covered on ConHome last March.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 14:11 in Energy | | Comments (38)

Nick Herbert pledges to support farmers and consumers against supermarkets which abuse their power

HERBERT NICK NW Shadow Defra Secretary Nick Herbert will today announce that a Conservative Government would create a supermarket ombudsman to prevent large retailers from abusing their market position to squeeze farmers' profit margins and act against consumers' interests.

It would be a unit within the office of Fair Trading and would be funded by a levy on the biggest supermarkets which have an annual turnover of more than £1 billion.

The announcement represents a hardening of the party's existing line, which was merely to support a soon-to-be-introduced code of practice for supermarkets.

The idea of an ombudsman has already been proposed by the Competition Commission, but the Government has so far dithered over whether or not to take it on board.

Mr Herbert will tell the Oxford Farming Conference:

"Supermarkets deliver real benefits but some aspects of the way they treat their suppliers can harm consumers as well as producers. We have a code of practice which outlaws practices such as retrospective discounting, but this isn't worth the paper it is written on without effective enforcement."

"We will introduce an ombudsman to curb abuses of power which undermine our farmers and act against the long-term interest of consumers. As the Competition Commission has made clear, failure to do so could result in reduced investment by suppliers, lower product quality, and less product choice, with potentially higher prices in the long run. It is time to act."

He will also repeat his pledge to introduce legislation "if the retailers won't act" to enforce honest food labelling which would allow consumers to know which produce is genuinely British.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 08:54 in Rural affairs | | Comments (101)

Conservatives pass the one nation test with flying colours

One of Gordon Brown's favourite lines (parroted by Labour's natural allies, the Liberal Democrats) is that Conservative policies will benefit the rich. They quote George Osborne's inheritance tax cut as evidence for this* and sometimes the Tories' married couples allowance.

I strongly believe that both tax reliefs are justified even if, to some extent, they benefit the middle classes. Inheritance tax (or death tax) is a form of double taxation that offends a large majority of people and prevents wealth cascading down the generations. Britain - with one of the world's highest rates of family breakdown - is one of the very few countries in the world that doesn't recognise marriage in the tax system. That is why, alongside other pro-family policies, David Cameron is right to recommit the party to a marriage tax allowance  because the family is any nation's first defence against poverty.

But these are far from the party's only policies and they'll only be introduced after the urgent work of deficit reduction is well underway. Most Tory policies prove the vibrancy of David Cameron's commitment to the poor. My see-saw graphic below illustrates the extent to which many Tory policies have a pro-poor element. If anything there is a bias towards the poor, not the rich in Conservative plans. Samuel Johnson said that "a decent provision for the poor is a true test of civilisation." Despite what Labour says, Conservative policy passes the test... and some.

The graphic will be easier to read if you click on it to enlarge.

FavourVulnerable Tackling poverty is not only morally right it is in every taxpayer's self-interest. The breakdown of family and the persistence of dependency has greatly increased the demand for government. Policies that revive an independent citizenry provide the most sustainable path to a smaller state.

Tim Montgomerie

* During the Christmas period George Osborne made it clear that there would be no u-turn on inheritance tax.

Posted at 08:42 in Compassionate conservatism | | Comments (64)

Monday, January 04, 2010

Tory poster puts Cameron front and centre of campaign

This is the second of ConHome's new quick daily election briefs. The first was here.

ElectionBriefing The Tories emphasised David Cameron, the economy, health and compassion in poster launch. Today's Tory poster 'I'll cut the deficit, not the NHS' will be on 1,000 poster sites. It is striking how personal it is. It's not the Tories promising to cut the deficit and protect the NHS but David Cameron personally. The big new health policy contained in the first chapter of the draft manifesto - a commitment to tilt NHS resources towards the poorest communities - confirmed the continuity of compassionate conservatism.

Labour's accusation of a £34bn hole in Tory plans was quickly rebutted by the Tory Treasury team. You can read the full rebuttal within this post but the CCHQ response was fast and comprehensive. Judging from my lunch with one political editor of a national newspaper Labour won't get a good press from the dossier tomorrow.

Reports of the death of the Tory commitment to a marriage tax allowance are exaggerated.  The BBC's Nick Robinson is trying to hype this up but there has been no big switch in the Tory position.  The aspiration to introduce the commitment is still there but the deficit makes a timetable impractical. The Daily Mail wouldn't forgive a U-turn on this commitment.

Chris Grayling is back as leading Tory 'attack dog'. The Shadow Home Secretary has been in the news commenting on topics well beyond his portfolio, including a rebuttal of Gordon Brown's new year message.

Two interesting signs of Tory life online. First is the party's own online manifesto consultation and there's also ToryBear's online effort to oust Labour's Twitter Tsar, Kerry McCarthy MP.

Tory MPs have been out in force in marginal seats. Paul Goodman MP records his own experience in Harrow. More photographic evidence from Brighton Kemptown. And has anyone checked that Nadine Dorries MP's nosehas been found?

Screen shot 2010-01-04 at 17.56.48 Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 17:59 in General Election Brief | | Comments (34)

'Ask David' about the Conservative manifesto

Picture 8 One of my favourite features of WebCameron MkI was an 'Ask David' feature which allowed visitors to ask a question of the Conservative leader and he then answered the ones that other users voted as most deserving of an answer. The feature was retired perhaps because a lot of the most-voted-for questions were from, for example, crazies who wanted to say 9/11 was a CIA plot and so on.

Anyhow, the 'Ask David' feature is returning as the party rolls out its draft manifesto. Visitors to conservatives.com will be able to ask a question about the latest chapter of the Tory manifesto (the first chapter is on health) and users will be able to vote for the ones they most want David Cameron to answer. Using a Google-based voting system (also used by the White House) that will prevent attempts to manipulate the voting, the Conservative leader will then answer the ten most popular questions at a Cameron Direct meeting - mixing live questions with online questions.

CCHQ are also stressing that the manifesto is in draft form. If knockout ideas emerge from the online conversations that take place at conservatives.com the party may embrace them.

> Below is a video in which David Cameron explains how you can take part in the Q&A he is doing this Friday

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 17:00 in Blogs, websites, e-etc | | Comments (35)

Chris Grayling says that the proposed Islam4UK march in Wootton Bassett should be prevented

Chris Grayling head shoulders tie Conservative activist Imtiaz Ameen wrote this morning's Platform piece explaining why he believes the proposed Islam4UK march through Wootton Bassett should not be allowed to go ahead.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Grayling has now backed this position, having just released the following statement:

“We are absolutely clear in our view that the police and the local authority should prevent this march from going ahead. The actions of Islam4UK are utterly objectionable. It has close links with banned preachers of hate and has arranged for them to preach in the UK by audio and video link. We can’t go on like this, the law should already have made it possible for them to be prosecuted for doing that.”

He later added:

“This is a group that’s intent on whipping up hatred. These latest remarks in the media today and the proposed march are beyond outrageous. I have already called for members of this group to be prosecuted for some of their activities and I think the Government should now ban this group altogether. We also welcome the fact that so many groups representing British Muslims have slammed what Islam4UK is trying to do.”

Judging by his presence on a number of media outlets over the Christmas period, it would appear that Mr Grayling is very much back fulfilling his general "attack dog" role again - one at which he has always excelled. I am sure we will be seeing even more of him over the coming months.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 14:58 in Defence, Race and multiculturalism, War on terror | | Comments (77)

Tories will cut the deficit, not the NHS

Just arrived at the launch of chapter one of the Conservative manifesto - which you can now download here.

The first poster puts David Cameron (without a tie) and the NHS at the centre of the Tory campaign.

Click on the image to enlarge:

Screen shot 2010-01-04 at 10.18.12 Tim Montgomerie

10.35am: George Osborne says this NHS campaign will feature on 1,000 poster sites across country.

10.40am: The NHS, says Cameron, was my first priority when I became leader and it remains my top priority.

10.45am: After listing the NHS reform measures that the Tories will introduce Mr Cameron notes that life expectancy and infant mortality rates for poor and rich have widened under Labour and are as big as in Victorian times. To correct this the Conservatives will introduce a Health Premium to target more resources on the poorest communities.

Screen shot 2010-01-04 at 11.06.47 10.50am: In a second new policy announcement David Cameron announces new maternity networks, that will link up local hospitals, doctors, charities, voluntary groups and maternity consultants to share information, expertise and services.

10.55am: In his contribution Andrew Lansley emphasises the importance of public health funds to prevent disease.

11am: During Q&A Mr Cameron attacked this morning's Labour document which alleges a £34bn black hole in Tory finance plans. Mr Cameron said he had spotted £11bn of errors in the report in a very quick 11 second scan. He said he wouldn't take lectures from a Chancellor whose forecasts had proved to be spectacularly unreliable.

11.05am: Mr Cameron didn't really answer Gary Gibbon's question about whether the Tories had no plan to cut the deficit beyond the modest measures already announced or whether there was a secret plan to cut more deeply. The Tory leader responded by saying that he has been more honest than Labour.

Posted at 10:21 in Campaign materials, Health | | Comments (66)

David Cameron reaffirms his support for the NHS as the party begins unveiling its manifesto

David Cameron outside Stafford Hospital The general election may still be several months away, but the Conservative campaign steps up several notches from today as the party enters fully-fledged election mode.

Following a visit to Chelsea and Westminster Hospital yesterday, David Cameron and Andrew Lansley will this morning be publishing a chapter on health from the party's draft manifesto.

It was previewed in yesterday's Observer and the Press Association summarises what can be expected as follows:

"David Cameron is launching an audacious raid on traditional Labour territory by pledging to divert NHS resources to deprived areas. Amid fevered political activity at the beginning of what could be a five-month election campaign, Mr Cameron will attempt to counter the Tory image as the party of the rich.

"He will also unveil plans to give mothers "real choice" over the kind of childbirth and other services they want... The party leader has gone to great lengths to stress his personal commitment to the NHS, promising that health budgets will not be subject to the same cuts as other departments."

With Cameron and Lansley at a mid-morning event in central London, members of the Shadow Cabinet will at the same time be making appearances on the campaign trail at locations in every corner of the country.

Check back here later on for an update on what is announced.

Click here to see the newly unveiled poster and announcements made this morning on health.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 07:27 in Health | | Comments (64)

Fifteen reasons why even Peter Hitchens and Simon Heffer should vote Conservative

Some right-wing critics of David Cameron often suggest there are no good reasons to vote for today's Conservative Party. In my opinion there is much in the breadth that David Cameron has given the Conservative Party that should appeal to traditional conservatives, particularly the commitments to decentralisation, government transparency, social reform and conservation of the local environment. But there is also a great deal of much more familiar Tory fare. Most Tory members appear to agree. In the end-2009 ConservativeHome survey I listed fifteen more traditional Conservative 'red meat' commitments and asked for the 1,994 respondents to say how much each policy enthused them on a scale of 1 to 10 (where 10 was most enthused). These are the average results:
  1. An end to taxpayer subsidy of the trade union movement*: 8.76
  2. Abolishing ID cards: 8.78
  3. An annual cap on immigration from outside the EU: 8.31
  4. An independent medical examination of every incapacity benefit claimant: 8.13
  5. A recognition of marriage in the tax system: 8.10
  6. Abolishing regional government: 8.09
  7. Replacement of the Human Rights Act with a British Bill of Rights: 8.08
  8. Moving public sector job advertising away from The Guardian and on to the internet**: 8.03
  9. The abolition of inheritance tax for all but millionaires: 7.95
  10. The protection of private schools from interference from the Charity Commission: 7.93
  11. Freezing the BBC licence fee: 7.53
  12. A 10% reduction in the number of MPs: 7.24
  13. The repeal of the ban on foxhunting: 6.61
  14. Full renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent: 6.47
  15. A free vote on reducing the time limit for abortion: 6.18

Tim Montgomerie

* The end of the Trade Union modernisation fund.
** An idea touted by George Osborne but not yet firm policy.

Posted at 05:56 in ConservativeHome Members' Panel, The Conservative Right | | Comments (134)

Sunday, January 03, 2010

Tories off to flying start to 2010

Most days from now until polling day ConHome will be publishing an end-of-day bullet point guide to the key General Election themes. We start the briefing with the key stories from the first three days of 'Campaign 2010':

ElectionBriefing Heading for a Conservative majority of 48+. The first ConservativeHome Poll of Polls of the year suggests that the Tories could win a Commons majority of at least 48.

Year for Change: CCHQ blitzed newspapers and online media with the Year for Change message from the very first minutes of 2010. Some complained that the adverts did not even say that they were from the Conservatives but Tory strategists said they were a teaser for the campaign to come and framed the election as a vote for change or more of the same.

Where's the Tory beef? James Forsyth claimed that George Osborne was advising the Tory campaign to offer more earthy, "retail" policies while Steve Hilton, Cameron's chief strategist, recommends big picture, blue sky vision. In the first 72 hours blue sky vision has been dominant and Fraser Nelson coined the best soundbite of the campaign so far; attacking David Cameron's new year speech as containing as much beef as a vegan sandwich. Stephan Shakespeare came to the Conservative leader's aid, arguing that the decentralisation agenda was truly radical.

YearForChangeWooing the Liberal Democrats: Both Lord Adonis in The Sunday Times for Labour and David Cameron for the Conservatives made appeals to Liberal Democrat voters. David Cameron promised a place for the Labour and LD leaders in a war cabinet should he become Prime Minister. Warning that a hung parliament could make it hard to agree on difficult budgetary decisions, Ken Clarke signalled the possibility that Conservatives will attempt to scare wavering voters away from voting for the Liberal Democrats.

 Will the Tories increase VAT? Ken Clarke refused to rule out an increase in VAT to 20%. Cameron told the Mail on Sunday that Whitehall needed a "haircut".

Gordon Brown appeared on Andrew Marr and said his attacks on Eton had been a joke. Watch him here.

Tories will launch NHS chapter of manifesto tomorrow. For those wanting more "beef", there will be a promise to tilt resources to poorer communities. Nearly every Tory MP will be on the campaign trail taking CCHQ's talking points to the top target seats.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 17:51 in General Election Brief | | Comments (20)

One to Watch in 2010

PicksOf2009
STRATHCLYDE Jonathan Isaby's pick: My one to watch is a politician who has served uninterruptedly on the Conservative front bench since he was made a junior whip in the House of Lords by Margaret Thatcher in 1988. Chief Whip in the Lords in John Major's Government, Lord Strathclyde has now ably led the party in the Upper House since 1998. He has constantly been in the top third of the ConHome shadow cabinet league table. Whilst David Cameron may become Prime Minister next year with an overall Conservative majority in the Commons, any administration he forms will start its life as a minority government in the House of Lords. Mr Cameron will of course be entitled to appoint a fresh raft of working Conservative peers - hence ConHome's search for new nominations; but using his political and diplomatic skills, it is Lord Strathclyde who will be a key figure in delivering key votes from the red benches. Few members of Cameron's Cabinet will be more important to the success of any Conservative government.

6a00d83451b31c69e20120a61dd0a8970b-500wi Tim Montgomerie's pick: I have never been a fan of the A-list but I am a big fan of the female candidates who have been selected as Conservative candidates during David Cameron's leadership. Many female A-listers were of relatively poor quality but Conservative Associations have had the sense to ignore CCHQ's ambition for more than 50% of candidates to be women and have selected the best of the crop. I don't want to mention too many names but Karen Bradley (formerly of the Tory policy unit), Philippa Stroud (because of her lifelong commitment to social justice), Liz Truss (a radical thinker on public sector reform), Harriett Baldwin (because of her knowledge of the financial world) and Fiona Bruce (because of her legal and business background) are just five stars-in-the-waiting. There are many others. My hope is that David Cameron does not promote them too quickly. They deserve a chance to learn the ropes of being an MP - particularly those with marginal seats and the need to make good first impressions on their constituents. My one-to-watch for 2010 is therefore not a person but 'the female Tory MP'.

> Previous picks: The gaffe of 2009

Posted at 13:06 in Candidates, Picks of the Year | | Comments (12)

Tories may use fear of hung parliament and financial crisis to drive waverers away from Liberal Democrats

I have already covered Ken Clarke's warning that VAT may have to rise to 20%. In his interview with The Sunday Telegraph the former Chancellor also repeated his warning against a hung parliament:

"I trust it is an academic argument – but I do think a hung parliament would be a spectacular disaster. If too many people voted for the Liberals or all these fringe parties, you'd have a government which did not have the authority to take tough and necessary decisions all the time. A hung parliament means a weak government."

Field Mark on BBC If the polls get closer this may become a bigger part of Tory strategy.  Mark Field MP used a ConservativeHome piece last month to warn that "a hung parliament risks tipping sterling and the gilts market into a catastrophic state." In his debut article for ConservativeHome yesterday, as our Contributing Editor, Paul Goodman urged David Cameron to make it clear to every wavering voter that the only way of being sure of getting rid of Labour and installing a new government is to vote Conservative.

Mr Clarke's warning comes as The Sunday Times reports manoeuvring by the Labour Party to position itself as the natural allies of the Liberal Democrats:

"In an interview with The Sunday Times, Lord Adonis [Transport Secretary] went on to claim that there was “no ideological divide” between new Labour and the Lib Dems and suggested they could forge a “progressive coalition”. The remarks will anger Labour traditionalists who regard the third party as an implacable foe. Adonis — himself a former Lib Dem who joined Labour only in 1995 — said: “Nick Clegg is a very capable leader and ideologically I am on broadly the same page as him, as I believe is Gordon Brown."

Mr Cameron's new year message was also interpreted as an attempt to reach out to the Liberal Democrats:

"Let's be honest that whether you're Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat, you're motivated by pretty much the same progressive aims: a country that is safer, fairer, greener and where opportunity is more equal.  It's how to achieve these aims that we disagree about - and indeed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats there is a lot less disagreement than there used to be."

LoveBombing Yesterday the Tory leader offered to include the Liberal Democrat leader in his war cabinet. The Conservative Party's overall 'lovebombing' strategy was attacked by former Tory MP Michael Brown in last week's Independent:

"All the Tory talk is of a "new politics" and recognising "the good intentions of our opponents". But I'm not sure that too many voters will understand the clarity of the Tory message when told that "between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats there is a lot less disagreement than there used to be". Try telling that to the Conservative candidate in Cheltenham, for whom I spoke a few weeks ago, trying to unseat the Liberal Democrat incumbent in what should be an easy Tory gain. Mark Coote has been working furiously, locally, to point out how hopeless his Liberal Democrat opponents are and how much difference there is between his policies and theirs."

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 08:18 in LibDem-Tory relations | | Comments (132)

Saturday, January 02, 2010

Ken Clarke refuses to rule out VAT increase as Tories inch towards more honesty on their deficit plans

In his News of the World column Fraser Nelson turns David Cameron's own soundbite against the Tory leader and warns him not to treat voters as fools, as Labour has done. He slams the speech given yesterday by the Tory leader as containing "as much beef as a vegan sandwich". Nelson's view is widely shared among centre right commentators. They fear that David Cameron and George Osborne have yet to tell voters the truth about the scale of spending cuts and tax rises that will come after the election (whoever wins).

In his speech yesterday this is what Mr Cameron said about reducing the deficit:

"We’ve been clear about our intention to cut public spending, and clear about where some of those cuts will come – from a one-year freeze on public sector pay to bringing forward the planned increase in the state pension age. But it’s not enough just to deal with the deficit. To have a hope of competing in the decades to come, our economy needs a complete overhaul. We need to build an enterprise economy."

I argued on New Year's Eve that there had been a lot of talk of austerity and tough choices but only a small list of savings has actually been announced.

There are signs from this morning's newspapers that the party is edging towards more honesty.

CLARKE KEN ON ITN Ken Clarke refuses to rule out an increase in VAT in an interview with The Sunday Telegraph. Asked by the newspaper's Political Editor Patrick Hennessy about a possible increase in VAT to 20% the Shadow Business Secretary replies:

"When you're the most indebted country in the western world, and people are talking about looking at the credit rating of the country, and we're not sure that foreigners are going to buy gilt-edged bonds to finance our debt, then you cannot start promising you are not ever going to start increasing taxation. We will try to avoid it, we'll minimise it if we have to by having proper control of public spending, which we haven't had in this country in the last 12 years."

Definitely not a "no" and consistent with his previous tax rise warnings.

Unlike The TaxPayers' Alliance I do not oppose a temporary increase in VAT so long as we see enough pro-poor measures elsewhere in the budget and a maximum squeeze on public spending.

The News of the World lists the sort of spending cuts that the Tories are apparently considering. The list includes "selling off national assets and cancelling "big ticket" items such as the major schools building programme and defence projects" and "abolishing middle-class benefits such as child tax credits and free bus passes."

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 23:17 | | Comments (67)

CCHQ fury at 'briefings against Steve Hilton'

CCHQ are happy with their flying start to 2010. Tory strategists believe they have got the best of the new year coverage. From the very start of New Year's Day their 'Year for Change' adverts were in newspapers and online. David Cameron's speech in Oxfordshire has featured across all news bulletins today. The campaign accelerates on Monday with the launch of the NHS chapter of the Tory manifesto and nearly every Tory MP will be visiting a marginal seat to deliver the party's talking points to local and regional media.

Hilton-Steve There is, however, something close to fury at what are seen as briefings against Steve Hilton, David Cameron's Director of Strategy.  In this morning's Times Francis Elliott alleges that Steve Hilton is blocking the appointment of James O'Shaughnessy (currently Head of the Conservative Research Department) to a top policy job in Downing Street, should the party be elected. Elliott quotes insider disdain for the irregular strategy briefings that Hilton produces. The Mail on Sunday has more on these briefings tomorrow.

The Spectator's James Forsyth appears to confirm The Times story. James blogs that O’Shaughnessy "has been the focus of negative briefing in recent months". He adds that "George Osborne and Hilton have also clashed" on election strategy:

"[Hilton] wants to run a campaign high on vision, presenting Cameron as both a unifying figure and the ‘change we need.’ (Yes, they really are intent on casting Cameron as Britain's Obama - more on that another time). While Osborne thinks that the Tories need to have more of a retail offer, things to sell on the doorstep."

At various times today I've been told by a senior source inside CCHQ that the stories about Hilton and O'Shaughnessy are "entirely crap" and "total tosh". This source has never lied to me. CCHQ think there are jealousies among some MPs and advisers at Steve Hilton's enormous influence. Some noses were also put out of joint by Hilton's return from America and his resumption of a full on role. Whatever the truth of these reports they are an unhelpful distraction from an election campaign that has otherwise got off to a promising start. A search for the source of the briefings is underway.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 21:55 in CCHQ, Team Cameron | | Comments (41)

Tory MP James Gray urges the people of Wootton Bassett to ignore a Muslim group that plans protest against British troops' "genocide" in Afghanistan

Wootton Bassett in Wiltshire has become respected throughout Britain for the way its people have lined the streets to honour the bodies of dead British soldiers that pass through the town after landing at nearby RAF Lyneham.

It has been reported today that an extremist group, Islam4UK, are planning to march through Wootton Bassett, in order to draw attention to the Muslims who have died in recent conflicts. The group accuses British soldiers of "genocide" and fighting a "Crusade" in an incendiary statement on their website. The local Conservative MP James Gray has issued the following statement:

“The people of Wootton Bassett who turn out in rain or shine, week in week out, to honour our fallen service men, and I have been glad to be there for most of the repatriations, do so out of respect for those who have been killed in service of their Queen and Country and obeying orders from their officers and ultimately from Parliament. It is my experience that those who stand with me down the High Street are expressing really no political view on the war at all, either in favour or against.

For that reason, I, and I hope most local people, will equally avoid taking part in the controversy over any such planned march. I suspect that the police will not allow it to go ahead anyhow. But if it does, I hope that the people of Wootton Bassett will ignore it, and just go about their business in the ordinary way.

Of course I disagree with what these people are saying and reportedly planning to do, but it is my view that the best antidote to it is to ignore it, treat it with disdain, contempt, or even mild humour. What these people are looking for is a reaction of outrage. We should not justify their foolishness by giving it to them.”

Tim Montgomerie

8.15pm: ITN report:

Posted at 15:41 in Defence, Race and multiculturalism, War on terror | | Comments (134)

Cameron promises to invite other main party leaders into war cabinet if he becomes Prime Minister

COMMENT: "David Cameron's first speech of the election year did not contain much new but was interesting for its emphasis on bipartisanship and the commitment to invite other party leaders into the war cabinet of any Cameron administration:

"I can announce today that if we win this year's election, I will invite leaders of the main opposition parties to attend the war cabinet on a regular basis so they can offer their advice and insights. When a nation is at war, it needs to pull together. I am determined that with a Conservative government, it will."

This will appeal to the great many swing voters who like the idea of parties working together in the national interest."

Download a PDF of "We Cannot Go On Like This".

Highglights not verbatim of Mr Cameron's speech:

11.42am: (Big announcement): Cameron says that he will establish a National Security Council on day one of a Tory government and will invite the leaders of the other two main parties to sit in the war cabinet on a regular basis when the country is in conflict.

11.39am: You can trust Conservatives to deliver on promises because you can see we have changed ourselves. We have opened up candidate selection and have many more women and candidates from ethnic minorities. Not only that, candidates are undertaking social action projects in their constituencies. Throughout the last four years we've worked with other parties - with Labour on education reform and the Liberal Democrats on fairness for the Gurkhas. We have called for election debates whatever our opinion poll position because they are the right thing for democracy.

Screen shot 2010-01-02 at 11.32.2111.38am: We will undertake the most dramatic decentralisation of power in Britain for a generation.

11.37am: We will also rebuild society. We are progressive conservatives who will protect NHS funding. Through a pupil premium we'll get extra resources to poor children. Through welfare reform we'll give people independence and dignity. We'll strengthen families. We'll increase Britain's commitment to the poorest people of the world.

11.34am: Conservatives have been honest about the need to cut spending but much more than that we need a complete overhaul of the economy. There'll be a cut in the main corporation tax, a new high speed rail network and 100,000 more apprenticeships as we build a new dynamic and enterprising economy.

11.33am: Britain can't go on with a divided government. The campaign to win the General Election starts today. On Monday we'll publish first chapter of our manifesto.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 11:26 in Conservative strategy | | Comments (125)

"If you want change, you'll have to vote for it - and that means voting Conservative."

Screen shot 2010-01-01 at 11.16.18 Tim wrote on New Year's Eve about the huge challenges that a new Conservative government will face.  I'll take up the same theme soon.  But too much similar fare can make for indigestion.  So I want today to write about something different - namely, how the Conservatives can get elected in the first place, without which we won't be able to do or be anything in government anyway.

The background is stark.  We need the biggest swing in modern times to win.  The electoral system works for Labour and against us.  British politics is becoming more continental: the two-Party duopoly has been breaking down since at least the 1980s, allowing the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, the Greens, and the BNP more space on the political stage.

The expenses scandal suggested that the gap between governors and governed may now be a gulf.  It's sometimes written that David Cameron has a mountain to climb.  Perhaps the gradient of the challenge is less like a Himalayan adventure than a space shuttle ascent.

However, this grim background offers the Party a golden chance. The factors cited above are bad for us but mostly worse for Labour, at least at the moment. Its poll ratings are broadly at 1983 levels or thereabouts.  Most of those who will vote in the general election will want a change of government.

So an election that's mostly about us will surely, by definition, be more difficult to win than one that's primarily about Labour and Brown (assuming he remains in place) - about bankrupt Britain, public service failure, the broken society and the McBride-isation of politics.

Continue reading ""If you want change, you'll have to vote for it - and that means voting Conservative."" »

Posted at 08:58 in The big picture | | Comments (84)

70% of Tory members back ethnic screening of air travellers

Today's Guardian reports that "the government could allow hi-tech security searches at British airports that focus on people who fit a particular profile".  This, the newspaper continues, will prompt "fears that particular racial and religious groups will face increased scrutiny."

In the end-year ConservativeHome survey (answered by 1,994 members), 70% agreed that "Airport security staff should screen passengers so that, for example, elderly ladies are not treated the same as young Asian men". Just 22% disagreed.

According to last Monday's Daily Express, Professor Anthony Glees, the Director of the Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies at Buckingham University, said that extra questions at airports and even body searches for passengers deemed as risky could prevent potential terror plots. He continued:

“Profiling passengers is the rational solution at this time until MI5 and the police get to the bottom of this attack. Muslim passengers should be prepared to give security at airports more detailed explanations of why and where they are flying.”

In The Guardian, Ed Husain makes the case against profiling:

"In both Britain and America demands for profiling all Muslims at airports are increasing in volume. This mindset not only fails to understand that most Muslims around the world detest al-Qaeda, but this outlook also cannot comprehend how terrorists are always one step ahead of the game. If it is Muslim-sounding names that are to be stopped, would a name like Richard Reid – the infamous shoe bomber – have been detected? If it is Asian men that are to be stopped, then we will see an increase in white men recruited for terror?

After all, al-Qaeda's English spokesperson is Adam Gadahn, a white American. If it is men who are stopped, we will see women terrorists emerge. Let us not forget Palestinian groups' repeated use of single women as suicide bombers. Do not underestimate the power of terrorists to recruit serving airline pilots and other aviation personnel. Where there is a will, there will always be a way.

The profiling of ordinary Muslims not only opens other avenues for al-Qaeda, but results in the harassment and potential loss of support from the very people we need on our side to contain al-Qaeda: ordinary Muslims. Without mainstream Muslims on side, western powers cannot deal al-Qaeda and its associates the blow that it deserves. After all, it was the Muslim father of the Nigerian would-be plane bomber who alerted the US embassy in Lagos six weeks before last week's attempted attack. Muslim families are our first line of defence against terrorism. Can we afford to lose that unseen, unappreciated buffer against extremists?"

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 08:47 in ConservativeHome Members' Panel, Race and multiculturalism, War on terror | | Comments (105)

Friday, January 01, 2010

Tories 10% ahead in final survey of 2009

YouGovMore in The Telegraph.

Posted at 12:27 in Opinion polls | | Comments (86)

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