A manifesto has been drafted.
There are detailed plans for the first 72 hours of the Tory campaign.
Key donors are ready to open their cheque books.
And nearly all of our battleground seats have selected.
I have repeatedly asked CCHQ what will happen to those non-battleground seats that have been frustrated in their ambitions to pick 'em early and pick 'em local... I have asked if candidates will be imposed... The unwillingness to reply leads me to believe that imposition of candidates will happen (and given the time-scale will probably be necessary).
There are some battleground seats that still do have to select, however. Three stand out to me:
- Rochester and Strood which is notionally Conservative through boundary changes
- Westmorland and Lonsdale which Tim Collins lost at the last election by a small margin
- North East Cambs - a safe Tory seat from which Malcolm Moss is retiring
Scotland has been much slower than Wales (where ten new candidates have been chosen) to select but will - within a fortnight - have selected for its target seats, including Edinburgh South and Perth & North Perthshire.
The problem for Scottish Conservatives is that all but two candidates are not bedded down.
There are a few other interesting selection issues posed by an early election:
- Andrew Pelling. This seat could easily be lost - Neil Hamilton-style - if recent allegations of assault dog Pelling's campaign. The allegations hanging over him could hurt other London candidates. Boundary changes mean he faces a small Labour majority.
- What will Boris Johnson do? If he stands again for Henley he'll communicate a lack of interest in the London job.
- Ann Widdecombe's retirement announcement was expected imminently. What will she do now? She'll probably have to stand again.
Overall assessment: "With a few important exceptions, the party has candidates in most battleground seats. Some have only been selected recently, however, and will be disadvantaged by not having had the chance to build local reputations or knowledge. Activists in non-battleground seats fear that they won't have any choice of candidates but will have A-listers imposed upon them."