New TNS-BMRB Poll – Labour Down 2%
There is a new poll from new pollster TNS-BMRB published tonight. Lib Dems and Conservatives are unchanged but Labour are down 2%:
Conservative 34% (no change)
Lib Dem 30% (no change)
Labour 27% (down 2%)
This poll is a couple of days old as I believe fieldwork finished on 27 April.
New Angus Reid Poll – Tories Up & Lib Dems Down
There is a new poll tonight from Angus Reid published tonight for the Economist which shows the Lib Dems falling back after being ahead in the last poll :
Conservative 33% (up 1%)
Lib Dem 30% (down 3%)
Labour 23% (no change)
There is now a definite trend of Conservatives drifting up and Lib Dems down, as I predicted. More polls due tonight.
Residents’ Parking Charges Bombshell
Reading Conservatives have expressed their shock at the impact of leaked Labour plans to increase massively the cost of parking in a residents’ parking zone. The Council is currently conducting a review of all residents’ parking areas but information has been passed to the Conservatives which shows that Labour are planning to stop the right to a free resident’s parking permit for many households and nearly double the cost of a second permit. Many addresses will therefore lose their entitlement to a first or second permit.
At present the first permit is free and a second permit costs £55, up to 20 visitors permits are issued free and subsequent books are charged at £12 per book. Under Labour’s plans for anyone moving into a residents’ parking zone, the second permit would rise to £100 and just 10 visitors permits would be issued free, with subsequent books being charged at £20 per book.
However, the biggest blow for residents will be the news that any address that has any off-street parking (whether at the property or elsewhere) will not be entitled to a free first permit. The homeowner will have to apply for a second permit at £100, and this will only be issued if the parking zone they are in is less than 80% subscribed. With the planned merger of over-subscribed zones with the under-subscribed ones, it is unlikely that any zones will meet these tighter criteria for issuing second permits.
Commercial vehicles will not be entitled to a resident’s permit and will have to apply for a business permit at £250. They will be restricted to one permit per business.
Discretionary permits applications will cost £50 per application with the actual permit costing £300 (the application cost would be deducted from the £300).
All residents’ parking zones (except the centre zones) will be changed to allow 2 hour parking between 10am and 4pm.
The Labour Group also wants to introduce higher charges for vehicles that are considered to be “gas guzzlers”. So older and larger vehicles would almost certainly pay even higher charges!
This will be shocking news to the many residents who live in residents’ parking zones. Many addresses will lose their right to a free permit completely and other residents will have to pay £100 for the privilege of parking outside their own property. Plans for even higher charges for older vehicles would also hit poorer families hardest.
Labour was hoping to keep this secret until after the local elections and then spring the news on local residents. Conservatives have pledged to stop these Labour plans for residential and visitors permits if elected and restrict any increase in charges to the rate of inflation. The existing deficit in funding the scheme would be met by introducing pay and display bays for non-residents between 10am and 4pm.
New ComRes Poll – Tories Open Up a 7% Lead as Lib Dems Slide
There is a new poll from Communicate Research reported tonight for tomorrow’s Independent and ITV News which shows the Conservatives opening up a lead of 7% and the Lib Dems down further and back in third place:
Conservative 36% (up 3%)
Labour 29% (no change)
Lib Dem 26% (down 3%)
Once again the Conservatives are up and Lib Dems down, this time by 3% each. This poll puts the Lib Dems well back into third place and the general trend now is the Conservatives beginning to open up a reasonable lead over Labour.
Gordon’s Gaffe Reveals the Real Man Behind the Mask
Today was a very revealing day for the electorate about the man who is seeking election as Prime Minister for the first time. For years stories have circulated about Gordon Brown’s bad temper and his dislike of being disagreed with. We have also more recently heard allegations of bullying and rages when he doesn’t get his own way. All of these have been strenuously denied by the Labour party.
Today an ordinary voter had a firm but reasonable public debate with the Prime Minister over a range of policies including immigration. Throughout Brown kept his cool and seemed to deal reasonably well with the lady’s questions. Indeed she made it clear that she was a natural Labour supporter who just wanted to make her constructive criticisms of Brown’s government.
When the conversation ended and Brown returned to his car he forgot that he had been wired with a lapel microphone with a live feed to all major broadcasters. When the doors were closed two things became very clear. Firstly Brown verbally lashed out at his staff for letting the woman speak to him. Hysterically he described the encounter as a disaster and sought to blame those around him for the whole event. Secondly he then abused Mrs Duffy, describing her as a “bigoted woman” presumably for having the temerity to raise the concerns of many people over the level of immigration.
When Brown was played the tape of his remarks he wriggled, claiming that he had “misunderstood” what Mrs Duffy had said to him. Initially he offered a half-hearted apology for any offence he may have caused. Only later did he speed back to Mrs Duffy’s house to offer a full apology which he assured the assembled media, she had accepted. He claimed to be “mortified” whilst grinning throughout his statement. Unfortunately so many spin doctors have told Gordon to lighten up and smile that this is now his default setting, however inappropriate it may be at the time.
This gaffe will undoubtedly continue to dominate the news up to tomorrow night’s final TV debate. I am sure that it will be the front page story in every newspaper tomorrow morning and the news that Mrs Duffy has appointed a PR specialist is very bad news for Brown central. They will advise her on how to get the maximum exposure and revenue for her story – the last thing Labour needs right now.
Today Gordon Brown was condemned out of his own mouth. His insecurities and instinct to blame others was highlighted to the whole nation. The man is unfit to be Prime Minister and I think many more people will reach the same conclusion by 6th May.
New Harris Poll – Tory Lead Narrows to 2%
There is a new Harris poll reported in today’s Metro which shows the Conservatives down slightly. The Lib Dems are up a point and Labour down one:
Conservative 32% (down 2%)
Lib Dem 30% (up 1%)
Labour 25% (down 1%)
All changes are within the margin of error and it will be interesting to see what the other polls due tonight will show. I don’t yet know when this poll was conducted.
Labour Facing Disaster in Reading
It has been obvious to me for some time that Labour in Reading was facing disaster on 6th May. Locally houses that normally have posters in the window or on stakes in the garden have none. There is little sign of Labour canvassers or leaflets in most wards and our canvassers are reporting former Labour voters coming over to the Conservatives. In our marginal and target wards the canvass returns are very good but they seem to be even better in wards that would previously have been considered “safe” Labour.
Confirmation of our findings have now been published in a MORI survey for the Local Government Chronicle looking at data gathered from February 2009 to February 2010 in 17 key cities and towns across the UK. The article specifically highlights Reading as a “bouyant city” alongside Milton Keynes, York, Brighton and Cambridge. It suggests that Labour support has plummeted by 21% from 35% to 14%, while Conservative support is up 9%, and Lib Dems up 7%. The data used predates the Lib Dem “surge” following the televised leaders debates but if anything Labour has gone down since then.
This election has been remarkable for the number of people contacting the Conservative offices in Reading East and West to offer their support and to request a poster for their window or on a stake. Frankly, we have struggled to keep up with the demand for Conservative posters, especially from areas in current Labour and Lib Dem wards.
It has also been remarkable for the fact that even some Labour Councillors and former Councillors do not have Labour posters in their windows. Everything I have seen suggests that the Conservatives will make further inroads into Labour’s traditional heartland on 6th May. It is worth noting the composition of Reading Borough Council as recently as 2002:
Labour 36 seats / Lib Dem 6 seats / Conservative 3 seats
Entering this local election the Council looks like this:
Labour 19 seats / Conservative 18 seats / Lib Dem 8 seats / Independent 1 seat
It is noticeable that despite all their bravado the Lib Dems have made almost no progress in Reading in the last eight years, despite the obvious crumbling of Labour support. In fact in the last few local elections the Lib Dem vote has declined in each successive year. In the elections on 6th May the choice in Reading is very clear – only the Conservatives can defeat Labour to provide a fresh start for our town.
For those people who do not have an LGC login the article is below:
New ComRes Poll – Tories Increase Lead to 4%
There is a new poll from Communicate Research reported tonight for tomorrow’s Independent and ITV News which shows the Conservatives and Labour up and the Lib Dems down:
Conservative 33% (up 1%)
Lib Dem 29% (down 2%)
Labour 29% (up 1%)
Changes are within the margin of error but overall the changes are in line with the earlier Populus poll suggesting the Lib Dems drifting downwards and the Conservatives up again.
New Populus Poll – Tories Pull Away From Lib Dems
There is a new Populus poll reported tonight for tomorrow’s Times which shows the Conservatives stretching their lead over the Lib Dems to 8%:
Conservative 36% (up 4%)
Lib Dem 28% (down 3%)
Labour 27% (down 1%)
This poll suggests again that the Lib Dem tide is turning but Labour will be concerned that despite the Lib Dem fall they are still in second place.
Another West/East Mix Up From Local Lib Dems
A week ago I wrote about the campaign website of Reading East Lib Dem candidate Gareth Epps, which saw him promising “a Fresh Start for Reading West”. Of course it was swiftly amended as soon as I blogged it but a kind correspondent had screen-captured the blooper for me. You might think therefore that the Lib Dems would be most careful not to repeat the error.
However, a resident has passed me a copy of a “Focus” leaflet currently being distributed in Redlands ward. Not only is Epps once again advertised as the candidate for Reading West but he is described as the “perspective” (sic) candidate! The same caption suggests that “a resident” is posing for the photo with Gareth (Reading West) and Daisy Benson (Redlands). If you look closely, that “resident” bears more than a passing resemblance to Lib Dem Councillor Warren Swaine, who not only does not represent Redlands but lives in Katesgrove ward.
So that one Lib Dem photo and caption is confusing, misleading AND inaccurate. Quite an achievement!
Have a look at the leaflet here.
New Opinium Poll – Tories Increase Lead to 6%
There is a new poll from Opinium published in the Daily Express tomorrow showing the Conservatives increasing their lead over the Lib Dems:
Conservative 34% (up 2%)
Lib Dem 28% (down 1%)
Labour 25% (down 1%)
The Lib Dems are maintaining a strong position although they are down a couple of points from their peak after the first debate and the Conservatives are a point or two stronger.
New ComRes Poll – Tories and Lib Dems Neck and Neck
There is a new poll from Communicate Research reported tonight for tomorrow’s Independent and ITV News which shows the Lib Dems further narrowing the gap with the Conservatives and Labour unchanged in third place:
Conservative 32% (down 2%)
Lib Dem 31% (up 2%)
Labour 28% (no change)
ComRes also asked voters about the prospect of a hung parliament. 72% said they’d prefer a majority government, while 20% said they would prefer a hung parliament. When those who support a majority government were asked who they would prefer to see get a majority, 37% said Conservative, 29% Labour. Of those who said they would prefer a hung parliament, 27% opted for a Conservative government with Liberal Democrat support, while 56% opted for Labour government with support of the Lib Dems.
New ICM Poll – Race Tightens Again
There is a new ICM poll in tomorrow’s Guardian which shows the race tightening again. All three parties are within a few points of each other:
Conservative 33% (down 2%)
Lib Dem 30% (down 1%)
Labour 28% (up 2%)
This merely reverses the changes in the weekend ICM poll and restores the exact party shares of the last Guardian ICM poll.
Britain’s Got Talent 2010
In amongst all the door-knocking and delivery of leaflets I do occasionally find time to relax. On Saturday night I watched the latest episode of Britain’s Got Talent and was amazed at two acts:
Both of these acts were amazing and caught me and the judges by surprise. It proves the point that this TV formula still has a long way to run if there is talent like this still out there!
Making Sense of the Opinion Polls
A number of people have contacted me to ask what conclusions they should draw from the seemingly contradictory current opinion polls. We have recently seen all three of the major parties in the lead at different times and undoubtedly there has been a boost in the polls for the Lib Dems following the first televised leaders debate.
The first point to make is that opinion polls are a snapshot of current opinion and not a predictor of a future result. The usual wording of a voting intention question involves the assumption of “a General Election tomorrow”. As we know, there will not be a General Election tomorrow and therefore the question is somewhat unreal.
The second point is that opinion polls usually ask “Which party would you vote for…”, which is a legitimate wording but ignores the fact that many people still vote for or against a local candidate rather than a particular party. Some of those people saying they will vote Green, UKIP or BNP may not have their preferred candidate standing in their constituency and therefore if they vote they will cast their vote for someone else.
Thirdly, polls usually sample just 1-2,000 people and there is then significant manipulation of the raw data to try to make the sample representative of the population as a whole. There is much argument around the post-sample weighting process, as each pollster does it differently and gives different weight to different factors. For example some weight very heavily according to declared likelihood to vote and others less so or not at all. The small size of the sample also makes it more likely that from time to time “rogue” or “freak” results will be created. Most polls have a margin of error of 2-3% but as sample sizes shrink, the margin of error grows.
Fourthly, most polls are national and take no account of regional or local factors. Taking the published numbers and applying a uniform national swing (UNS) to work out the party seat totals is a very suspect way of projecting the election result. For example many marginal seat polls suggest that the Conservatives are doing rather better in their target seats than they are nationally. Thus UNS may suggest a hung Parliament but the actual results could deliver an overall Conservative majority. UNS is an even less reliable predictor in the current circumstances of a three horse race.
Some pollsters have a long track record and we can look at their accuracy before major elections but this is often complicated by the fact that the polls that are most examined are those published immediately before polling day and these are the ones that are often adjusted and weighted differently than their usual monthly or weekly published polls. Personally I have long thought that ICM and YouGov were the most reliable polls but changes to YouGov methodology recently have made me less sure. MORI are very erratic in their findings and others such as Angus Reid and TNS-BMRB are too new to be able to assess. BPIX have a question mark over them as unlike other major polling companies they are not members of the British Polling Council and do not publish their raw data.
If we look back at election campaigns and their polls over the last 10 or so years some consistent patterns can be seen. Almost all opinion polls overstate the Labour share of the vote, usually by only 1-2% but some far more. Many polls slightly understate the Conservatives and some understate the Lib Dems. Polls in Scotland have consistently under-estimated the Conservative position compared to actual election results.
The televised leaders debates have clearly given the Lib Dems a boost but the detailed polling data suggests that much of this support has come from the under 24 age group and those who were not intending to vote. I suspect therefore that much of the Lib Dem “surge” is in fact a polling mirage and it will not be delivered in the ballot boxes on 6th May. Even if it were to be delivered, it would seem to be fairly evenly spread across the country and therefore unlikely to produce many additional seats for the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems do not have much of an organisation on the ground in many of the seats they might hope to win and therefore are not able to get their literature through letter boxes.
I am not a betting man but if I were I would expect that the Lib Dem “surge” will continue to subside in the polls and that Lib Dem support will settle at around 24-25% before polling day. Labour will probably end up at about 28% in the final polls and achieve a bit less on polling day. Conservatives will drift up slowly to about 38-40% in the polls and end up with 39-41% in the ballot box, leading to an overall Conservative majority.
Of course I have no crystal ball (if I did I would be a rich man) and it is possible that the Lib Dems could outpoll Labour, who could experience a complete collapse in support. However, I will stick my neck out and say that the scenario I have outlined above is the most likely in my view.
I would be interested to hear the views of other readers.
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