With just minutes left before midnight for his party, the Honourable member for Birmingham Erdington has decided to retire. His excuse for this decision is to campaign to be the elected mayor for Birmingham - a job which doesn't yet exist. Others may recall that neither Boris Johnson or Frank Dobson stood down as MPs when they were attempting to become Mayors of London. Indeed, it seems like being an MP would be a better platform. Of greater importance is the fact that Sion-droyd was a key character at lolitics. I doubt he will ever be reincarnated as mayor-man.

Yesterday I was elected as chairman of Birmingham Ladywood Conservatives. The constituency of Ladywood is the closest thing to Birmingham Central. 2010 should be an exciting time to be involved. In addition to national and local elections, this autumn sees the return of the Conservative Party conference to Ladywood constituency. Mail the Committee at ladywoodconservatives@googlemail.com if you would like to get involved...

For the first time since 1997, we enter a new year certain that we will have a general election. The last time we entered a new year with 100% certainty that we would have a chance of getting a better government, you have to go back to 1979. Destroying Labour at the ballot box is what I call once in a generation opportunity. Here's a few NYE's texts I received.

2010 - our year of deliverance. To victory, comrades.

I think next year will be a good year.. Can't think why.

Here's for a return to a genuine free market. Hayek and Friedman we need you.

It will be a Happy New Year if we get a change of government.

I am thinking of making a few resolutions. These will be mainly based around effective time management - e.g. less online chess.

In terms of predictions, my wife is expecting a baby in May so I hope that comes to pass. If kicking is a good sign, it's doing well.

At the national level, I am expecting the Conservative Party to become the biggest party and Labour to slip to well under 200 seats. I don't think that the timing of the GE is especially important, but as a rule of thumb the later Labour go, the grislier it will be for them. Expect the following discernable electoral trends to be discussed at length after the election.


1. I expect that the polling lead over Labour will exceed 1987, but the Tories will either win a tiny majority winning around 330 seats or if they fall just short they will coalesce with one or some of PC/SNP/Irish unionist parties. This will prompt much analysis and expedite the boundary review which will lead to 10% cut in the number of MPs.

2. Disappearance of Labour in 'the South' outside of London. Labour currently hold close to 50 seats in the Eastern, South-West and South-East sections of the country. See this map. I expect them to keep one of the Bristol seats, Slough and Luton North, but if they can't magic up at least 30 more wins in these areas, they won't be able to keep their majority. They won't. Cue discussions about whether Labour is truly a national party.

3. The Lib Dems will do better than expected. Outside the south-west they will make small gains sometimes on large swings against Labour. Their best results will come in the north-east. They will get just short of 100 seats.

4. Largest anti-Labour swings in the West and East Midlands. Watch for places like Cannock Chase, Warwickshire North and Birmingham Erdington. Up north, the biggest surprise will come in Yorkshire where Ed Balls will lose in Morley & Outwood.

5. The growth of 'the others' will manifest itself in a number of ways. Labour and Conservative combined will fall below 65% of the total vote. Secondly, for the first time ever, a number of English seats will be won with less than a third of the vote (Brighton Pavilion, Birmingham Hall Green, Derby North and Norwich South spring to mind). NB - It would be interesting to have a betting market on the seat with the lowest winning vote share. UKIP will take second place in a number of 'safe' Conservative seats.

Gordon Brown's departure will be an amusing sideshow. Initially, he will indicate his plan to stay on for some time to oversee an 'orderly hand-over', but this position will become untenable and he will have to resign within days of his General Election defeat.

The Labour Party have dropped another notch with their Jedward negative campaigning. At the excellent Alice in Chains gig I went to yesterday, I was passed a flyer advertising the following band.



I raised a laugh when I said that it was a Gordon Brown letter of apology. Not sure that a politicians who complains to cartoonists for making him look fat will do tell well on this campaigning territory.

When even the Foreign Secretary is putting party politics before the country's interests by smearing democratically elected politicians from other EU countries, it's hard not to sink down to his party's level. Despite the temptation, we should remain above the fray.

The 2008 Conservative conference coincided with Birmingham Uni Freshers' Week. That year trust, hope and change were the campaigning themes of the Fresher recruitment drive - all positive concepts - we should keep this at the forefront of our minds when we are promoting the Conservative message.

Since the constituency was created in 1997 Bedford has had a Labour MP. Back in 1997, Labour gained over 50% of votes cast.

You’d have thought that Labour would be strong contenders in the Bedford mayoral elections. You’d be wrong. John Prescott and Ali Campbell may be campaigning to Go fourth, but in key battleground seats such as Bedford, Labour are coming fifth. In yesterday’s mayoral elections, the Labour candidate captured just 3,482 (less than 10%) of the 34,875 votes cast. Backing for Labour has fallen from 1 in 2 to 1 in 10.

Voting Labour is looking increasingly like a cult activity.

In the near future there may be protests in the centre of Birmingham and the local football derby will have taken place at St Andrews. In the light of recent events, it's hard to be optimistic about how things may unfold. I shall not be in town for any of these 'upcoming activities'. I hope that the police have jolted out of their apparent complacency and the city is in one piece when I come back.

I’ve been having fun with Craig Murray of late. I pulled him up for attacking our winning candidate in Norwich North - Chloe Smith – on the grounds that she had worked for Deloitte. He reacted in characteristically over-the-top style to this criticism, with an extra-ordinary post on his blog where he accused auditors of bribing the Tories. Having said all I need to say to Craig (and I think it’s safe to say that nobody who is involved with running our financial system will be consulting him) it made me go away and have a closer look at bribery and bribery law.

And the news is this. This Autumn, from the government which didn’t bring you an investigation into BAe, expect new legislation relating to the giving and receiving of bribes. In addition to reforming legislation related to these criminal activities, a new corporate liability offence of "negligently failing to prevent bribery" will be introduced. As a risk management professional, I am grateful for this extra offence as the enhanced requirements on companies that ensue is good for my trade. Draft bill here.

In May 2008, Cllr Matt Bennett won Stockland Green for the Tories for the first time in 22 years on the largest swing in the city. Report here. The Labour incumbent at that time was Penny Holbrook who works for Sion Simon.



Either Sion or one of his staff seems to be caught in the past. If you visit his latest web entry, the author labels the photo above as sion-simon-mp-brookvale-centenary-with-cllr-penny-holbrook.jpg. Let's hope this error is corrected so that Penny can't be accused of impersonating a councillor.

Update Sat 25th - corrected.

In an attempt to pre-empt David Cameron's quango-slaying, Liam Byrne graced us with this ridiuclous utterance.

I am determined that every penny of public money goes to front-line services.

Setting aside the impossibility of this aspiration, here is a man who can't even ensure the legitimacy of all the (extortionate amounts of) money he claims as an MP! Exhibit one and exhibit two.

A propos de rien, here's a good story about Liam Byrne from the guys in the Dixon estate agents below his constituency office in Hodge Hill. Remember when he claimed how remorseful he was when he was caught using a mobile whilst driving. Well the press were gathered at his work the day after he was convicted. As he breezed through the Dixon offices - whilst smirking - he gestured being on the phone and driving. Liam, like me, they think you're a twunt.