- The Guardian, Saturday 30 June 2007
The poll, the first since Mr Brown became prime minister on Wednesday, shows Labour soaring seven points to 39%, a clear four-point lead over the Conservatives and its first lead in an ICM poll since March 2006.
The result is Labour's best performance in an ICM poll since David Cameron became Tory leader in 2005. If repeated at a general election it would see Labour increase its majority at Westminster.
After a difficult month, Mr Cameron will be relieved to see the Conservatives rise to 35%, up one on last month.
The main losers are the Liberal Democrats, whose support has shifted to Labour. The party is on 18%, down three on last month. The rating suggests the Lib-Dems have been trading too heavily on Labour's unpopularity, especially over Iraq . It also suggests that the orderly transition betweeen Tony Blair and Mr Brown has gone down well.
The Conservatives had been bracing themselves for a Brown bounce, and privately believe the new prime minister is going to dominate the agenda for at least a fortnight. Mr Cameron's staff were relieved the Tory vote remained solid, but will be worried that leads on a raft of policy issues, including health, have dissipated. The Tories are holding back their policy review reports for some weeks and Mr Cameron will soon reshuffle his shadow cabinet.
Research for the poll began on Wednesday after Mr Brown became prime minister and was completed on Thursday night, after the new Cabinet was appointed.
Mr Brown continued his mould-breaking ministerial appointments, including a former head of the Royal Navy, Sir Alan West, who becomes minister for security at the Home Office. Lord Stevens will become his senior advisor on international security. Sir Digby Jones, the former CBI director general, has been appointed an industry minister and will take the Labour whip in the Lords.