It's not that easy

Is it the weather? The sap rising, the sun shining down, the blackbirds trilling amid the first leaves of the plane trees in Whitehall? What is it about the coincidence between summer and the collapse of Gordon Brown? Here we are, barely May, and already we are back to where we have been before: Stop digging! Draw a line! Show leadership! Smile more! Actually, don’t, you look weird! Appoint a heavyweight! Me me me! (D Blunkett) Get a new spin doctor! Last thing you need! Sack Alistair! Bring back Alastair! Put down that stapler! Stop playing politics! Resign! Go away!

That, broadly, is the essence of what you will read today and over the weekend as we try to work out what’s happened this week and predict the future. You know what? I predict it will be like last summer. We will get excited (if you think this is bad, wait until the weekend after the June elections). We will find plots. And greybeards. And delegations. And signs that Gordon Brown’s moral compass is pointing to the exit. And…and…and…and in the end, he will be allowed to stay on, and he will choose to stay on, and he will lead his party into a general election next year and…and who knows? Defeat’s the best bet, probably a belter. But let’s face it – the past three years have been so mad that I’m reluctant to hop on the bandwagon of certainty and predict it’s all over for the naked emperor.

But as I watch the last of the apple blossom fly away in the garden breeze, I offer you some of the themes doing the rounds, which, when we come to write the history of this flawed Prime Minister will deserve some close examining:

- What’s with Gordon surrounding himself with blokes? And the tiresome reliance on football as bonding agent and political metaphor? When Lord Mandelson came back and Alastair Campbell popped up again in No10, a Cabinet minister said to me: “Downing Street? It’s like one big homo-erotic gang-bang these days.”

- How will Ed Balls recover, if ever, from his cock-crowing denial of Damian McBride? That’s not me, that’s Labour MPs, even those who hold no candle for Mr McBride and his, ahem, techniques. Funny how little things have big impacts.

- Who is in charge in No10? Jeremy Heywood and the civil service is all that stands between now and collapse. Where is the political advice coming from? Liam Byrne? Tom Watson? Charlie Whelan? Is it being listened to? Who is grabbing Mr Brown by the lapels and calling him an idiot if he posts that film on YouTube?

- Can the dividing lines stop? Mr Brown started by saying it was time to end the politics of dividing lines. Yet in the Budget and on expenses (and so much else), that’s precisely what he did. The only way out is to end it and show national leadership. People want serious politics.

- Why didn’t we stop him? Lots of soul searching among those who backed Gordon, over their failure to see this coming. Guilt and shame, potent forces in politics.