Bolton West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18200 (43.7%)
Conservative: 14125 (33.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8257 (19.8%)
Other: 1111 (2.7%)
Majority: 4075 (9.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15175 (37.4%)
Labour: 17239 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7241 (17.9%)
UKIP: 524 (1.3%)
Other: 364 (0.9%)
Majority: 2064 (5.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13863 (33.6%)
Labour: 19381 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 7573 (18.4%)
Other: 397 (1%)
Majority: 5518 (13.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17270 (35.1%)
Labour: 24342 (49.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5309 (10.8%)
Referendum: 865 (1.8%)
Other: 1374 (2.8%)
Majority: 7072 (14.4%)
Boundary changes: Bolton loses most of Hulton and a small part of Rumworth ward to
Profile: Bolton West contains very little of Bolton itself, just the relatively affluent outskirts like Heaton. The majority of the seat is made up of the suburban and rural commuter belt between Bolton and Wigan, including the town of Horwich (home of Bolton Wanderers) and the former mining towns of Westhoughton and Atherton and the village of Blackrod. The seat is the most affluent of the three Bolton seats, with the largest proportion of owner-occupiers. While the boundary changes have made the seat somewhat safer, as of October 2006 Ruth Kelly remains the cabinet minister in the most vulnerable seat.
Outgoing MP: Ruth Kelly(Labour) born 1968, Northern Ireland. Educated at Sutton High School and Queen`s College, Oxford. Before becoming an MP she worked for the Guardian and the Bank of England. First elected in 1997. Became a junior treasury minister in 2001, and was promoted to Minister of State in the cabinet office in September 2004 and became Secretary of State for education in December 2004, becoming the youngest female cabinet minister ever. Following the local elections in 2006 she took over the departmental responsibilties of John Prescott as the new Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, also becoming Minister for Women and Equality. Kelly is a devout Catholic and reportedly a member of Opus Dei. Her presumed religious views on homosexuality led some to question the decision to give her responsibility for government policy on equality. Secretary of State for Transport 2007-2008. Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Susan Williams (Conservative) born Cork. Trafford councillor since 1998 and leader of Trafford Council since 2004.
Julie Hilling (Labour) Regional organiser for the TSSA.
Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrat) born 1963. Educated at Leeds Girls High School and Bristol University. Former nuclear physicist, now working as a computer trainer. Manchester councillor since 1991. Contested Davyhulme 1992, Manchester Gorton 1997, 2001.
Rachel Mann (Green)
Harry Lamb (UKIP) Managing Director.
Doug Bagnall (You Party)
Jimmy Jones (Independent)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90425
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.6%
Over 60: 20%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 96.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 82.2%
Hindu: 1%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76.6%
Social Housing: 16.8% (Council: 13.2%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
Hi FalkirkbairnN01… I thinkt that your prediction is correct. The North West, West Midlands, East Midlands, London and Wales will determine whether the Tories get a majority.
Cons Gain= 1,000 maj
Although too close to call for certain. Labour may still take it narrowly with a super campaign
Hi Shaun
I suspect that your predictions are slightly too optimistic for Labour.
My own view is that for the target 150 tory seats the average swing from Labour to conservative could be as high as an average of 8-9%. Labour’s safe seats might even see a 2-3% increase in the Labour vote.
This election could be another 1992 – I firmly believe that Mr Dimbleby could have egg on his face again after predicting a hung parliament at 10.01pm on election night.
Hung parliaments are certainly predicted more often than they happen.
One problem is that political commentators, and perhaps particularly TV presenters who are not expert psephologists, tend to take too much notice of the national swing. There are in effect several elections going on – Labour against Conservative, Conservative against the Liberal Democrats in the South West etc. In addition, in recent elections marginal seats have tended to sing different from safe ones – in 2005 Labour saved more seats than they would have done on a national swing, perhaps for instance because they register more postal voters in such seats – and this again means the national swing may not be a good guide. In addition, there are an increasing number of special case seats such as Brighton Pavillion where the Greens are challenging.
These days, if you want to predict the overall result I increasingly think you need, impracticably, to do an exit poll to predict individually every seat for which there is any reasonable doubt, and then add up these individual predictions for each party. Short of this, you do risk looking stupid.
Town Hall debate on the BBC for this seat. Will probably be on iPlayer later.
CON 2800
C gain maj 4000
Con Gain
Maj 1300
Con maj 2,000
BNP have selected ex-Conservative Sheila Spink (who I believe is also trying to win a seat on Stockport council simultaneously)
Conservative – 44%
Labour – 30%
Lib Dem – 25%
Conservative majority of 6,000 with a 10% swing from Labour to conservative and a 4-5% swing from Labour to Lib Dem.