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Saturday, December 19, 2009

Tory manifesto may be launched on 4th January as Cameron switches to positive message in 2010

2010campaign 'Sunny Cameron' is set to return in 2010 according to The Daily Mail.

The switch of emphasis comes as the Tory opinion poll lead has narrowed. Some Tory strategists are blaming the austerity message, ignoring the very clear evidence that it was the Europe policy announcement that began the softening in Tory support.  Harriet Harman's depiction of Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne as the Brothers Grimm has unsettled the Conservatives.

"The next stage," Mr Cameron tells The Mail's Tim Shipman, "is to explain some of the opportunities we have. There is a bright future. There is light at the end of the tunnel."

From the new year the Tories plan an energetic campaign:

  • David Cameron will make three trips every week to marginal constituencies, reports Tim Shipman.
  • The Times says a draft manifesto will be launched on 4th January as part of a "policy-a-day blitz throughout January". "Andy Coulson, the party’s director of communications," reports The Times, "has asked Shadow Cabinet ministers to “find new angles” on existing policies to generate media coverage, according to insiders."
  • A number of appointments are to be made at CCHQ to strengthen the team. One is, as we reported last night, the welcome return of George Bridges.

Continue reading "Tory manifesto may be launched on 4th January as Cameron switches to positive message in 2010" »

Posted at 08:58 in Conservative strategy, Strikes and unions | | Comments (10)

"Is it offensive to black up or not, particularly if you are impersonating a black person?"

Screen shot 2009-12-19 at 08.19.48 This was one of a stream of questions asked of Trevor Phillips by Tory MP Philip Davies.

Mr Davies, a backbencher who is often critical of the Tory leadership, has sent 19 letters since April 2008 to Mr Phillips, Head of the Equality and Human Rights Commission.

The Guardian reports some of Mr Davies' questions and the Commission's answers.

Q. "Is it offensive to black up or not, particularly if you are impersonating a black person?"

A. "There are many writings produced by scholars about blacking up, arguing that minstrel shows lampoon black people in derogatory ways, and many people clearly find blacking up to portray minstrels or black people offensive."

Q. Whether the Metropolitan Black Police Association breaches discrimination law by restricting its membership to black people. He compared this to the BNP's whites-only policy, which the far-right party has now agreed to change.

A.  "The BNP only permits white people to become members of the party and … this is unlawful under the Race Relations Act 1976 … The Metropolitan Black Police Association … is not a political party and therefore is not directly comparable with the BNP. We are, however, interested in any organisation which appears to act in breach of the equality enactments and thank you for drawing this matter to our attention."

Q. Whether it was lawful for an advert for a job working with victims of domestic violence to specify that applicants had to be female and/or black or ethnic minority.

A. "It is not clear that this advertisement is unlawful because there appears to be a reasonable argument that the requirement to be female and/or from the BME [black and minority ethnic] community was a genuine occupational requirement for the roles in question."

Mr Davis defended his letter-writing as a campaign against political correctness:

"Anybody who follows my career in parliament knows I'm concerned with the issue of political correctness. I'm merely pursuing a subject I raise more regularly than anyone else in parliament. It's one of my bugbears. Lots of people are castigated for being racist when that's not their intention."

He told The Guardian that he believed in equality but opposed "positive discrimination". "That builds up a resentment that doesn't exist before."

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 08:18 in Race and multiculturalism | | Comments (5)

Friday, December 18, 2009

CCHQ strengthens team in run up to General Election with return of George Bridges

Bridges-George He resigned two-and-a-half years ago but it will be confirmed in the next 24 hours that George Bridges is returning to CCHQ to help with the General Election campaign. I understand he'll be reporting directly to George Osborne in the latter's capacity as General Election Co-ordinator.

I warmly welcome this appointment. George is a great operator and I included him on my recent list of twenty people who would make excellent MPs.

George has served three Tory leaders; John Major, Michael Howard and David Cameron. He knows how to run campaigns and learnt a great deal when he worked closely with Lynton Crosby in 2005.

I suspect that George will also be an important voice within the Cameron operation arguing for more robust positions on immigration, the trade unions and the economy. His writing for The Telegraph and Spectator since he left CCHQ has often been uncompromising. This on the National Union of Teachers was typical:

"The NUT cannot turn off the nation's lights, but it can certainly dim children's prospects. And just as Margaret Thatcher's defeat of the NUM decided our economy's future, David Cameron's battle against the NUT will decide the future of our children. It will not be a battle for the fainthearted, but for those who feel in their bones that they are doing the right thing. There will be naysayers, even on the Tory front bench, warning: "Remember, teachers are voters, too." Well, there are more parents than teachers."

Tim Montgomerie

PS I'll need to update my Wallchart of the Cameron operation!

Posted at 21:09 in CCHQ, Team Cameron, The Conservative Right | | Comments (8)

Tories 16% ahead in new Angus-Reid/ PoliticalBetting survey

AngusReid The numbers in the Angus-Reid poll for PoliticalBetting.com are the Conservatives unchanged at 40%; Labour up 1% on 24% and the Liberal Democrats up 1% on 20%.

Posted at 14:36 in Opinion polls | | Comments (72)

Cameron rejects early referendum on Scottish independence

McLetchie Earlier this week David McLetchie MSP was put in charge of the Conservative Party's campaign to elect eleven Scottish MPs. In reality four or five victories would delight the Tory leadership but publicly the party is hoping for more.

David Cameron is on a visit to Scotland and in various interviews has been setting out his stall to voters north of the border.

He has rejected Lord Forsyth's suggestion that a new Conservative government 'shoots the Nationalist fox' by pre-empting Alex Salmond and holding a referendum on independence soon rather than at a time of the First Minister's choosing. Mr Cameron's opposition to a speedy referendum is recorded in The Scotsman:

 "I am 100 per cent behind preserving the United Kingdom. I will not put it at risk by having a referendum we do not need. If the Scottish Parliament decides it wants a referendum, the UK can't stand in its way, but to preempt it by having a referendum without it coming from the Scottish Parliament would be tricksy and wrong."

Mr Cameron also promises more powers for the Scottish Parliament and will set out what those powers should be before the 2011 Holyrood elections. The Scottish Conservatives now insist that, in line with the Calman report, they are now so committed to devolution that they want to deepen it.

The Times notes that Mr Cameron defended the Thatcher legacy: “There was a folk memory of the Thatcher legacy — people who are 30 now think Thatcher was bad for Scotland but they actually weren’t around at the time. People will see we have changed. This is a different Conservative party and a different leader.”

MUNDELL DAVID NEW Mr Cameron has also given limited backing to the Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell who is seen to have been undermined by David McLetchie's promotion. Mr Mundell had a "strong and important future," he told PA. The Conservative leader, however, "did not give an assurance that the Shadow Scottish Secretary will be made Secretary of State if the Tories win the General Election next year."

The expectation is that the Secretaries of State for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland might be wrapped into one Constitutional Cabinet role as part of a Tory government's efforts to cut costs and the size of the ministerial pay roll. There is support for such a rationalisation in Wales. The current Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy is regarded as little more than a spokesman for the Labour cause north of the border.... and all at our expense.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 08:31 in Scotland | | Comments (103)

Thursday, December 17, 2009

The Goring opinion poll predictions for Christmas 2010

Picture 9 The ConHome/ ConIntelligence team has just finished a very long (and quite liquid) Christmas lunch at one of London's greatest hotels (The Goring). As the Port was passed around the table we made predictions as to where the two main parties might be by the time we have Christmas lunch next year. These were the results:

  1. Bryony Fletcher: Con 39, Lab 34
  2. Duncan Flynn: Con 36, Lab 38
  3. Paul Goodman: Con 37, Lab 32
  4. Jonathan Isaby: Con 36, Lab 34
  5. Tim Montgomerie: Con 35, Lab 35
  6. Harry Phibbs: Con 34, Lab 39

Stephan Shakespeare declined to take part!

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 17:08 in Opinion polls | | Comments (35)

Unions have £25m war chest to "unleash hell" on Tory government

ConservativeHome has learnt that the unions are holding back money from Labour's election fighting fund and instead choosing to build up a war chest with which to fight the Conservative government that they expect to be elected next year. The relatively benign economic years of the recent past have meant the unions have not had to fund much strike pay and the coffers of the public sector unions, in particular, are overflowing.

A very good source tells ConHome that the unions have as much as £25m to spend on campaigns to oppose cuts in the public sector workforce and in public sector pay.

PoundAttackToday's Daily Telegraph splashes with the news that public sector pay continues to grow under Labour: "The Office for National Statistics disclosed that, in the three months to October, state workers received an average annual rise of 2.8% This was close to triple that seen in the private sector, where pay edged up by 1.1%. Many private employees have been told that their pay will be frozen next year and have had Christmas bonuses withheld." Even before the recession Labour had allowed public sector pay to catch up with private sector pay but had not forced public sector workers to sacrifice some of the securities they received as a traditional substitute for less remuneration.

Continue reading "Unions have £25m war chest to "unleash hell" on Tory government" »

Posted at 08:49 in Blogs, websites, e-etc, Strikes and unions | | Comments (74)

Cameron at odds with Chief Medical Officer's advice on children drinking at home

The BBC reports that the Government's Chief Medical Officer, Dr Liam Donaldson, has warned that parents who allow their children to drink alcohol at home may actually be increasing the chances of drinking problems. "The more [children] get a taste for it, the more likely," Donaldson warns, "they are to be heavy drinking adults or binge drinkers later in childhood."

That is not David Cameron's view. This is what the Tory leader told BBC Radio 1 in August 2008:

"I think the idea of introducing your children to understand that drinking is something you can do socially and something you can do with a meal and something that is part of life, you know, I think that is the way to do it. some of the friends I had, the ones who had the biggest problems were the ones where actually they never were able to drink anything at home. whereas the ones who drink responsibly were the ones who were given a glass of wine or small glass of beer or shandy or something, just to get them to know, right this is alcohol, this is what is does, you have to be careful. I think that's the right way to do it, in the home."

Cameron's approach makes sense to me. As with the climate change scientists and the government's drug advisers, it is important that politicians - rather than 'experts' - make the final policy decisions.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 08:22 in Family and relationships, Law and order | | Comments (78)

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

George Osborne demands truth from Darling over national debt and spending projections

George Osborne headshot Shadow Chancellor George Osborne is tonight challenging Alistair Darling to come clean over the full extent of the nation's debt. It comes after he appeared before the Treasury Select Committee and also refused to reveal official projections for total Departmental Expenditure Limits.

As the Daily Mail reports:

"Alistair Darling has been accused of covering up horrifying figures showing interest payments alone on Britain's vast national debt will soon be twice the defence budget. The Chancellor told MPs that the Treasury had made 'estimates' of increases to the debt interest bill - which experts predict will hit £70billion to £80billion a year within five years - but refused to release them to Parliament.

"The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Britain's most respected economic forecaster, has given projections to MPs suggesting the debt interest bill will hit £60billion by 2012/13, £66billion by 2013/14 and £71billion by 2014/15. Mr Darling also declined to reveal Treasury 'assumptions' showing deep cuts to public spending outside of Labour's protected areas of schools, hospitals and police numbers, despite demands to do so from the Treasury select committee."

Mr Osborne has tonight written the following letter to the Chancellor:

“Yesterday your officials gave a commitment to the Treasury Select Committee that they would publish the Treasury's projections for overall Departmental Expenditure Limits that lay behind your assertion that spending would be "broadly flat". I asked you three times in Treasury Questions to publish the same projections. Today, in front of the same committee, you acknowledged that the Treasury had made those projections but repeatedly refused to publish them.

“The only logical conclusion is that the projections contain information about Government forecasts for departmental spending that you do not wish to be made available to the public. After the Budget we published internal Treasury projections which revealed that departmental spending would be cut by 9.3% in real terms. Following the Pre-Budget Report, the Institute for Fiscal Studies have estimated that your announcements on NHS and schools spending imply average cuts in other departments of up to 19% over three years.

“You have said that you want to make public spending plans more transparent, and today you said that you were "reflecting" on what additional information could be published. The lack of detail that you provided in the PBR has resulted in an overwhelmingly negative reaction from international investors that puts Britain's economic stability at risk and threatens the recovery. So I am writing to ask you to publish immediately the projections for overall departmental spending that your officials agreed to provide to Parliament. What are you trying to hide?“

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 22:24 in Tax and spending | | Comments (21)

A lacklustre final PMQs of the decade

Jonathan Isaby's verdict:

William Hague both opted against going for the jugular on any issue or using humour as he often does so well at the despatch box, preferring for a series of questions on foreign affairs matters. Harman's responses were in the main pre-planned, tedious and uninformative. Overall a lacklustre affair which amounted to a no-score draw.

Picture 6 12.02 Harriet Harman opens by paying tribute to the latest casualties in Afghanistan.

12.03 Andrew Mackay raises the BA strike and seeks an assurance that Harman will influence the unions to call off the strike. Harman says she wants to see a strike not taking place.

12.05 Labour MP Judy Mallaber raises the issue of differing views on climate change within the ECR group in Brussels; Harman trumpets Brown's appearance in Brussels.

12.06 William Hague notes it's the earliest Christmas recess for 31 years and laments that we will not hear the Prime Minister's report on Copenhagen until after the recess. He wishes Brown well at the talks but asks whether they will be successful given what has been emanating from Copenhagen this morning.

Picture 7 12.08 Harman says that she wishes the talks well. Hague welcomes announcements on deforestation and wants an assurance that the the distribution of illegally harvested timber be an offence under UK law. Harman says the Government will deal with it and attacks climate change deniers on the Tory side.

12.09 Hague raises the arrest warrant for the Israeli foreign minister and asks how Britain can play a leading role in the Middle East peace process if Israeli politicians cannot visit Britain without fear from arrest.

12.11 Hague also asks if magistrates are applying the law correctly. Harman says that it will be looked into so that the situation is resolved.

12.12 Hague wants action to accelerate the EU sanctions against Iran - which he says could be "the biggest threat to peace in the world". Hague says that twice sanctions have been announced without being put into effect. He wants a statement early in the New Year as to what Britain, the EU and the UN are prepared to do on this.

12.13 Harman says the House will be kept updated - but berates Hague for not mentioning the fall in number of people claiming unemployment benefit announced today.

Picture 9 12.14 Vince Cable notes that the amount of tax revenue in the economy is the lowest since the days of Macmillan but that much is lost through evasion and wants to know what has happened to it. Harman comes up with a list of reasons for tax revenue falling - due to the global economic recession - but says steps have been taken against tax evasion. She makes a partisan attack on Tories with respect to parliamentarians being non-domiciled.

12.17 Cable notes that the Lib Dems have been pushing for the measures which David Cameron has now proposed but wants quick action on it. Speaker Bercow forces Harman to sit down when she tried pursuing an attack on Lord Ashcroft.

12.20 David Heathcoat-Amory notes that the golden rule on borrowing has been broken every year since 2001 and wonders if the law on fiscal responsibility will be a gimmick without any punishment for ministers who break it. Harman fails to answer his question.

12.21 The new Labour MP for Glasgow North East, Willie Bain, attacks Tory policy on inheritance tax. Harman says that his constituents wouldn't benefit from Tory policy because they don't live in Notting Hill.

12.23 Mark Francois raises the issue of homeless ex-service personnel and seeks more to be done to help those who have bravely served us. Harman seeks suggestions which she will pass on to the Defence Secretary.

12.27 Anne McIntosh asks if Harman has a favourite fairy tale - the Emepror's New Clothes perhaps? Harman replies that when it comes to fairy tales the country must avoid the Brothers Grim(m), in reference to David Cameron and George Osborne.

12.33 Nigel Evans says the administration is run by Tweedledee and Tweedledum (with the emphasis on the final syllable) and says that Christmas cheer would come with news of an early election. Harman says she doesn't think "that turkey is going to fly".

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 11:29 in PMQs | | Comments (90)

The straight-talking Theresa Villiers

The Shadow Secretary of State for Transport issued this statement yesterday in response to the ruinous decision of British Airways cabin staff to strike over Christmas:

"BA need this strike like a hole in the head. The cabin crew unions are damaging the interests of their members by pressing ahead with this strike and inflicting major financial damage on BA. The union needs to wake up to the realities of the 21st century aviation industry and the intense competitive pressure BA faces from no frills airlines with much more modern working practices."

I like Theresa's no-nonsense style.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 10:50 in Strikes and unions, Transport | | Comments (28)

Paul Goodman MP joins ConservativeHome as Contributing Editor

GOODMAN PAUL FACE ConservativeHome is delighted to announce that Paul Goodman MP will be joining the editorial team as a part-time contributor and consultant from 1st January 2010.

Paul will be Contributing Editor and share responsibility for coverage of the General Election.

Paul Goodman MP commented:

"I'm delighted to be joining Britain's leading conservative website, and working more closely with Tim Montgomerie and Jonathan Isaby. ConservativeHome has already established itself as the most authoritative broadsheet commentator on centre right politics - campaigning for Conservative beliefs and championing the Party grassroots. This pre-election period will clearly be a compelling period for the site and its readers, and I'm excited by the opportunities that the New Year will present."

Founder of ConservativeHome, Tim Montgomerie commented:

“ConservativeHome has ambitions to grow significantly in the years ahead. Our aim is to make ConHome the indispensable place for coverage of Conservative politics – including policy, strategy and personnel - and wider developments on the centre right in the UK. That ambition became realistic earlier this year when Lord Ashcroft joined Stephan Shakespeare as an investor in the project. The addition of Paul to the team is a massive leap forward for the site. His knowledge of the party and his background in journalism should help us to fulfil our aim to be ‘the quality newspaper of the blogosphere’.”

Paul Goodman is standing down as MP for Wycombe at the next General Election. He was Comment Editor of The Daily Telegraph before his election to Parliament.

Posted at 08:55 in About ConHome | | Comments (52)

David Cameron warns against lecturing people on climate change as he launches a new home "greening" scheme

10.45am update:

The party has revealed that aside from the Mayor of London, the following fourteen authorities have agreed to pilot the scheme being called the "Green Deal": Broadland, East Sussex, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hyndburn, Kensington & Chelsea, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Norfolk, North Tyneside, South Holland, Suffolk, Westminster, and West Sussex.

---

David Cameron blue backgroundDavid Cameron has given an interview which is splashed across the front page of this morning's Guardian to coincide with Gordon Brown's arrival at the Copenhagen summit (for which he is missing today's PMQs, the last before Christmas).

The Tory leader is quick to warn politicians against lecturing people on climate change or seemingly leaving themselves open to charges of hypocrisy since they are "in danger of starting to lose people":

"If the environmental agenda becomes limited to well-suited politicians stepping out of aeroplanes on to tarmacs, telling people how to live their lives and sounding like everyone else will just have to sit in a darkened room, wearing woollies with the lights turned off and the heating down, we are not going to get anywhere.

"People do not like being lectured. You have to take people with you, and the way to do that is to connect individual behaviour and rewards, and help people see the advantages of going green. We have to have carrots as well as sticks."

He goes on to announce a new Conservative policy which would see major retailers and energy firms help people "green" their homes.

Around six million households would get access to up to £6,500 worth of energy efficiency measures under the partnership scheme, which would see companies such as Tesco and Marks & Spencer lagging lofts and insulating walls. The resulting savings in electricity bills would then be shared with householders over a minimum 15 to 20 years.

Continue reading "David Cameron warns against lecturing people on climate change as he launches a new home "greening" scheme" »

Posted at 07:36 in Energy, Environment | | Comments (124)

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

More proof that the Conservatives have not been marginalised by ex-EPP colleagues

George Osborne on Marr 2 The Left-wing press and political opponents occasionally try to continue propagating the myth that after leaving the federalist European People's Party, the Conservatives have now somehow lost the ear of those parties which remain in the EPP.

This is of course patent nonsense, not least as it is clearly in the interests of our European neighbours to be on good terms with those likely to forming the British government in the not too distant future.

But it didn't stop the BBC trying to suggest in October, for example, that relations were strained between the Tories and Angela Merkel's CDU.

Well, they are that strained, that - as today's FT reports - Shadow Chancellor George Osborne was afforded a warm welcome in Berlin yesterday by Wolfang Schäuble - the finance minister in Angela Merkel's Government.

Mr Osborne has also recently held two meetings with Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister.

As the FT reports:

Mr Osborne's team argues his programme of quiet diplomacy is proof that the channels of communication between the Tory opposition and decision-makers in Paris and Berlin are strong.

"I want to make sure the British government's voice is heard on important financial issues," Mr Osborne said. "It has been useful to build personal relationships with finance ministers. I hope to put them to good use if we win the election."

So can this ridiculous idea of ex-EPP colleagues giving the British Conservatives the cold shoulder be put to bed once and for all?

Update: Here is a photo taken yesterday of George Osborne and shadow Treasury minister, Greg Hands, with Steffen Kampeter MdB, Wolfgang Schäuble's deputy, taken outside the Bundestag.

Picture 41

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 08:07 in Europe | | Comments (95)

Monday, December 14, 2009

Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guardian poll

According to a source inside The Guardian the Conservative lead in tomorrow's ICM poll is down by 2% (since the recent Sunday Telegraph/ ICM poll) to 9%.

This is in line with The Sunday Times' YouGov poll which also showed a surprising narrowing of the Conservative advantage.

I say "surprising" because I expected the negative press coverage to hurt Labour but the attack on bankers might be even more potent than expected.

Full numbers as soon as we get them.

Tim Montgomerie

The numbers are:

ICM

Comparisons are with the most recent ICM poll.

More on the Guardian website.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 17:50 | | Comments (171)

Happy Christmas from Eric Pickles and Santa Claus!

Today I received a Christmas card from Eric Pickles, addressed to "Jonathan and all my chums at ConHome", which I have reproduced below. The questions is... who is in that Santa outfit? I have my suspicions... (click the photo to enlarge)

Eric card
Eric xmas card 2

Posted at 15:35 in Light relief | | Comments (36)

Two changes to ConHome's presentation of opinion polls

From today ConHome is making two changes to how we present opinion polls.

AmendedThe first is presentationally small but we hope instructive. Every time a new opinion poll is published we offer a projection of the likely Tory majority that would emerge from the percentage numbers in the latest survey and also from our polls of polls. Saturday's YouGov poll with a 40% to 31% Tory lead, for example, was projected to produce a Tory majority of 2 according to UK Polling Report's swing calculator. Unusually the Poll of Polls also projected the same majority.

We no longer believe that that tells the full story. Our belief is that a 40% to 31% Tory lead would probably produce a much healthier Tory majority. The UK Polling Report calculator is based on a uniform national swing. It is right for UKPR to stick with the idea of a uniform swing but is such a swing likely?  We think not. We think there is going to be an unwind of anti-Tory tactical voting from previous elections and the emergence of anti-Labour tactical voting. We also expect the extra investment that CCHQ is putting into target seats will pay off. There are also suspicions that the core vote strategy being pursued by Brown will win him more support in heartland Labour constituencies but not among the aspirational swing voters of Middle England once so loved by New Labour. Some of these factors were analysed by academic Quentin Langley in a recent post for ConservativeHome's Platform.

Because it's difficult to know the potency of these factors we are not adjusting the UKPR projection number but we are adding a 'plus' sign to the graphic as a reminder to readers that the majority is likely to be larger. One pollster agreed that the majority could easily be 30 to 40 seats on a 9% Tory advantage.

The other change we are making is to the ConHome Poll of Polls. Up until now we have calculated a mean average of the most recent poll from each of the five biggest pollsters: ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI, Populus and YouGov. In this model a MORI poll from one month ago has, say, the same weight as a YouGov poll from one day ago. From now on we will average the five most recent polls as long as they are from those five market researchers or from Angus Reid (now polling for Political Betting) and BPIX (an occasional pollster for the Mail on Sunday). It may be that we will include two polls from, say, YouGov if they have provided two of the most recent five surveys.

The poll graphic below incorporates these changes. The ConHome Poll of Polls now includes BPIX's survey for the Mail on Sunday and Angus Reid's survey for PoliticalBetting.com. Under this refined system we are now projecting a Tory majority of 40+ (ie at least 40).

YouGov

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 07:04 in Opinion polls | | Comments (55)

Sunday, December 13, 2009

How should the Conservatives counter Labour's 'Tories will increase VAT and cut inheritance tax' attack?

Picture 15  A Tory poster from last year.

Labour's fightback strategy becomes clearer by the day.

We already have seen Team Brown throw the kitchen sink at us for sticking with our inheritance tax pledge. Policy Exchange's Neil O'Brien recommended that the party drop the pledge to neutralise the 'Tories-are-friends-of-the-rich' message. I was minded to agree with Neil but the party leadership felt that rowing back on the pledge would send the wrong message. After the Daily Mail's anger at the decision not to hold a post-Lisbon referendum, Cameron and Osborne are now even more determined to stick with the commitments to cut IHT and introduce a tax break for married couples.

The second part of the Labour attack is now clear. The Sunday Telegraph's Patrick Hennessy scooped it this morning: 

"Labour will make keeping VAT at 17.5 per cent a main election "pledge", with ministers constantly claiming that the Conservatives would, by contrast, raise the rate to 20 per cent within weeks of coming to power."

Ed Balls deployed the attack on Marr this morning.

So the Labour tax attack is clear: The Tories will increase VAT (a regressive tax) to fund inheritance tax cuts (for the wealthy).

The truth, of course, is that any VAT increase will be used to start paying off Labour's deficit and the inheritance tax cut won't be delivered until year three or four of any Conservative government but the Tories will probably need more than that to counter Labour's message.

Continue reading "How should the Conservatives counter Labour's 'Tories will increase VAT and cut inheritance tax' attack?" »

Posted at 18:25 in Compassionate conservatism, Conservative strategy, Labour strategy, Tax and spending | | Comments (129)

'Green Boris' says Darling's supertax on bankers is unlikely to work

BorisOnMarrSpeaking on Andrew Marr this morning, Boris Johnson said that he doubted that Alistair Darling's supertax on bankers' bonuses could work without "super-penalising London".  The Mayor of London said that he shared anger at the idea of taxpayer-funded bonuses but that any attempt to tax these bonuses should have been agreed internationally.

He began his interview by saying that he was a full convert to the climate change agenda, citing the Stern Report as a key moment in the development of his thinking. He paid tribute to David Cameron for putting green issues at the heart of British politics and said that climate change sceptics should realise that there were often good financial reasons for combating global warming anyway.

Continue reading "'Green Boris' says Darling's supertax on bankers is unlikely to work" »

Posted at 10:07 in Boris Johnson (Mayor), Environment, Tax and spending | | Comments (28)

The right to sack bad MPs should be centrepiece of Cameron's 'we-get-it-on-expenses' manifesto

There are persistent rumours that The Times' Chief Leader Writer, Daniel Finkelstein will become head of the Downing Street Policy Unit if David Cameron becomes Prime Minister. I have no idea if those rumours are true. I don't agree with Danny on everything but he's one of politics' nicest people and his commitment to the social justice agenda would make him a good choice. He is highly qualified for the post; (1) He has worked closely with two of the people who will be leading players in a Cameron government, George Osborne and William Hague and (2) he served inside Downing Street during the Major years. His advice on MPs' expenses is certainly worth heeding. This is what he blogged on Friday:

"I am still not convinced that political leaders realise how improtant this issues is going to be at the election. It will form a vital part of the local campaign fuelling an anti-incumbent feeling and it will undoubtedly break through into the national televised campaign too, in some form, even if we don't quite know how. It will become a major test of character and leadership and help decide the election result. Because MPs hate this issue so much, they shut their eyes and hope it will go away. It won't. More than that, party leaders should see it as a positive opportunity to show they are on the voters' side."

I think a lot of the anger towards MPs is over-done but it shows no sign of abating. The News of the World carries a story about "dozens of MPs [pocketing] thousands of pounds in extra taxpayer-funded expenses because of a loophole in House of Commons rules." The Mail on Sunday's BPIX poll captures another element of voter anger. 75% want the Prime Minister's salary to be cut by 20%.  The Tory leader has already promised a 5% cut in ministers' pay as part of his 'we're all in this together' message.  He challenged Gordon Brown to match that commitment at Wednesday's PMQs. Mr Cameron has also promised to cut the number of MPs by 10% by the time of the next General Election. That is a very tricky commitment which could cause countless selection battles in the second half of the parliament and encourage MPs to look to their local Associations' concerns more often than to the whips.

David Cameron needs to be alert to the issue of MPs' expenses re-emerging as an issue.  He has still not committed to the idea of 'recalling' MPs mid-term if they lose the confidence of voters. It is also worrying that Julie Kirkbride's ambitions to stand again remain alive. If she were to stand again she would blight the chances of Tory candidates throughout her region. I'm also hearing that her husband Andrew Mackay is set to be enobled. That would be a very unwelcome move, sending out all the wrong signals.

Credit to John Bercow for today's Mail on Sunday revelation that the Speaker plans to sack the official behind MPs' expenses. The promise came in an interview for Iain Dale's Total Politics magazine.

Tim Montgomerie 

Posted at 09:03 in Parliamentarians' duties and remuneration | | Comments (67)

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