ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Perhaps a bit soon to be thinking about this, but may I suggest we track where constituencies have to reselect candidates having been forced or permiited to select early?

The theory of early selection has its downside, particularly when expections of candidate and/or association are not fulfilled. Four years is a long time in terms of political campaigning.

Where constituencies have just lost their MP an early selection may not always be wise until they have got past the trauma of the loss, have washed any dirty laundry and got back on track.

Of course will be those who pooh-pooh this concern about the downside of early selection, but I believe that the injection of a bit of urgency by selecting a year or so later also helps reduce friction and complacency within a campaign.

Furthermore, to my knowledge there is quite a high attrition rate amongst candidates selected early - not that the Centre acknowledges that as a problem....

And let's not forget that Esther McVey could have been fast tracked in Wirral West again but chose not to do so.

I disagree with Old Hack. Early selection is essential. That is what the LDs do. Also with the change in PM there is a chance Brown may call a snap election.

And a candidate selected early is able to focus their time and energy for the party on that constituency rather than dissipating it chasing for one.

At a guess with boundary changes etc we are looking at just over 150 constituencies that need to be focused on in this manner? So 32 selected represents a reasonable start although I would want to see 75+ selected by January.

Why are some names in red?

It would be interesting to compare this list with the list of most marginal seats. Anthony Wells' list is probably the most useful at the moment although I suspect we'll see a lot more debate on which notional figures are most accurate soon...

Does anyone have a definitive list on which current MPs are standing down? I understand that Sir Michael Spicer (Worcestershire West) and Michael Howard (Folkestone & Hythe) are both standing down. Presumably Sir Peter Tapsell (Louth & Horncastle) will also retire. Anyone else?

There shouldn't be any names in red, Derek! Men and their seats are in blue - women and their seats in purple. All links are in an orangey-brown colour. Sorry if I've confused you.

I’ve had a look at the Wells list of Conservative target seats, which goes up to target 114, plus the dozen or so seats which are opposition-held but notionally Conservative, and there are some interesting results. I’ll exclude Bob Neill from this analysis as he’s already been elected, and by-elections are a law unto themselves in any case.

Using the Wells data, of the 30 candidates selected thus far, 10 are in seats which are Conservative or notionally Conservative. These are Filton, Daventry, Selby, South Northants, Mid-Derbys, Central Devon, Enfield North, Portsmouth North, Milton Keynes South and Solihull (the latter with a notional majority of just 16). Of these ten seats there are six male candidates and four female candidates, which is a reasonable split.

There are thirteen further notionally Conservative seats without candidates, although I expect that a handful of these (at least!) will be contested by incumbent MPs whose constituencies make up part of the new seats.

The Conservative target list includes three seats where the majority of the seat contains a Conservative incumbent, although the notional majority is with the opposition. These are Croydon Central (notional Lab majority 317), Northampton South (notional Lab majority 1386) and Rugby (notional Lab majority 3844). Andrew Pelling will presumably contest Croydon Central barring accidents, and with South Northants having already selected Brian Binley is presumably faced with the choice of fighting the new seat or retiring. Jeremy Wright may well find the new Kenilworth & Southam seat more to his taste!

Of the top ten targets, one has a Conservative incumbent (Pelling) and a further two (Harlow and Romsey) have selected. None of the top four targets have a candidate – these are Crawley, Finchley, Gillingham and the new South Basildon and East Thurrock seat. A further three of the top twenty have selected – Taunton, Westmoreland and Paul Offer in Chester who secured a superb result last May. There are four seats in the top twenty which have Liberal Democrat incumbents and do not yet have a candidate – Cheltenham, Eastleigh, Somerton & Frome, and St Austell and Newquay.

Of the top fifty targets, only thirteen have selected thus far, plus the two incumbents in Croydon and Northampton. Of the 23 Liberal Democrat held seats and 2 SNP held seats in the top 114, 8 have selected.

Finally, there are two candidates in place whose constituencies do not appear on the target list at all. These are Mark Garnier (Wyre Forest) and Richard Cook (East Renfrewshire), although the early selections are entirely correct in both seats.

I wouldn't bet on Sir Peter Tapsell retiring any time soon. Fighting fit and anxious to keep going from what I've heard.

Entirely agree with Steve above - if David cameron was serious when he said "be prepared" then we should have our PPC s ready. Would be grateful for confirmation that NCCA is on the 2nd Tranche - i.e choosing in the Autumn

I would agree. Early selections are needed for seats. We need to get candidates and people on the ground and get them known to local people.

Good Luck Maggie (Throup Solihull) your hard work and perseverance will oust the Lib Dem Lorelly Burt. Hopefully we can look forward to more equally sincere and committed candidates.

Expect Sir Alan Haselhurst in Saffron Walden to step down, vacating a very desirable seat.

Just to add to the comment I made earlier, although the percentage of female selections is 32%, this increases as the seats become more winnable.

As I noted earlier, 4 out of the 10 notionally Conservative or Conservative-held seats have selected women, and of course as we know the shortlist for Folkestone & Hythe is 2/3 female. Of those 10 seats, I'd say only three (Daventry, South Northants and Mid-Derbys) are likely to be reliably Conservative - the others are all marginals on 2005 figures - and two of those three have selected female candidates.

Meanwhile, the five least (but still eminently!) winnable seats (on raw, notional figures) selected have all picked men, and the female candidate selected so far with the largest majority to overturn is Lorraine Fullbrook in Ribble South (2686 and a 2.87% swing required according to the Wells figures).

I very much doubt Sir Alan will retire whilst there's still a good chance he could become the next Speaker should Michael Martin step down.

I understand why given the nature of the seat but it's also a shame Fiona Bruce isn't contesting Warrington South again. She did really well last time and is a perfect example of a quality local candidate with roots in the constituency.

Thanks editor, I now realise that the colour is to signify a link!

Cllr Lindley - you refer to Wells list. Can you provide a bit more detail of how to access this info?

Cllr Lindley, a few months ago a troublemaker in a local Rugby newspaper wrote a letter asking Jeremy Wright to clarify whether he would remain in Rugby. JW did not reply directly but a well known Tory Cllr, (Chris Pacey-Day) who we can assume was prompted by JW, wrote a reply forcefully making it clear JW would remain in Rugby until the electorate say otherwise.
Watch this space for news on what could turn out to be interesting developments in Rugby, Kenilworth and Southam!

I wonder why Esther McVey didn't fast-track in Wirral West. It should be highly winnable shouldn't it?

Derek, my information is based on the notional results from Anthony Wells' guide to the new Parliamentary boundaries, which you can find by clicking here.

Incidentally, Caroline, Wells has Wirral West as a narrow notional Conservative seat. I don't know whether McVey is looking elsewhere, or whether she didn't feel the fast-track was fair. Anyone care to elaborate?

"Proportion of local candidates selected since A-list: 33.3%"

When you say 'local' candidates, does this include priority listers who are also local, or just non-priority listers who are local?

As a few people alluded to on the 'York Outer' thread, we're in danger of establishing a false dichotomy between priority listers and local candidates, when it is possible for shortlisted candidates to be both local and a priority lister.

I think she may be in the difficult position of not being sure whether to recommit to Wirral West or take the risk of declining and trying to find a safer seat elsewhere. As such, it was better not to fast track and commit so early. She did well here (I live in Wirral West) but was very inexperienced. She deserves a good seat next time though but I suppose the risk is that if she decides now to stick with Wirral West she has to go through the selection process again (perhaps against Adam Rickett?!)

Craig Barrett,

I think you may find Michael Mates in one of the Hampshire seats could stand down as well.

Regards,

Craig, I think you would get short odds on anyone already 65 or over at the last election standing down for the next one. As of the 5th of May 2005 the oldest Conservative MP's were

Peter Tapsell 75
Michael Mates 70
Alan Haselhurst 67
Peter Viggers 67
Nicholas Winterton 67
John Horam 66
Michael Lord 66
John Gummer 65
Anthony Steen 65

A note of caution though the oldest MP of any party is Piara Khabra who was 80 at the time of the last election. If the above emulate Mr Khabra (and stand for relection at 80) they will all be able to witness DC's first term as PM comfortably!

Do we have any info on the other 20 or so seats which were in the first tranche? Are they still selecting or have many of them postponed in order to attract more applications? It's been quite a while!

Equally, do we know if CCHQ is 'having a word' with those on the A list (especially those who have never stood before) to 'encourage' them to apply. Why do I think not.

My understanding is that CCHQ are encouraging A-listers to apply for as many seats as possible. Indeed, there was a suggestion that those who were insufficiently active in applying for seats might find their place on the Priority List in jeopardy.

Certainly, A-list candidates are applying for multiple seats, which gives rise to some 'drop-out' where seats are selecting more or less in parallel. (For example, David Gold withdrew from the West Worcs selection process last week in order to concentrate his efforts elsewhere.)

I don't know of any postponements and progress is regularly updated on CH, if you know where to look.

It's good to see some A listers are doing the business, although it's clear many are not. Although I see on this thread that (excluding Bromley) only nine seats have selected. Admittedly a couple more are in the final stages, but this still leaves over 20 where everything has gone silent. Anyone in these areas got any news?

Seats going for primary style selections seem to be taking far longer logistically (eg Sefton Central and Pendle). Can't claim to know about every seat coming up, but those two certainly seem to be going ahead.

It's very difficult to say how many A-listers are "doing the business" because the early stages of selection are generally carried out behind closed doors, based on a paper 'sift' followed by a selection panel interview. Only then is the process opened up to the wider membership (and known supporters, if a Primary is used). It's usually not until this stage that any names leak into the public domain (a.k.a. ConservativeHome!).

Many A-listers could be applying for lots of seats, but not making it through to the final stages in many of them (especially if they're up against a lot of other A-listers).

I agree Richard. There is no question that some A listers are applying for lots of seats, but equally there are some who clearly aren't applying to any (other than possibly safe seats). We do know that many of the seats in the first tranche received very few applications at all. It's these seats I'm interested in now - are they postponing or running through selections with only a handful of applicants?

I have to confess, Steve, I've rather lost track of which seats are selecting in the 'first tranche'. Folkestone & Hythe and West Worcs select this week. Anyone know anything about Broxstowe or Staffordshire Moorlands?

Any news yet re. the Folkestone & Hythe selection? I want to know whether we can expect to see Harriett Baldwin in West Worcs on Saturday!

Regarding Conservative MPs standing down at the next election, I have it on good authority that two safe seats in one county will be looking for new candidates. The two members we can expect to depart are:
(1) A former senior figure whose career peaked pre-2005 but is no longer in the fold under Cameron; and
(2) A back-bencher who wants to call it a day after many years as a hard-working constituency MP.
Forgive me for not identifying them explicitly; to do so at this stage would be infelicitous.

Surely its just Milton Keynes South, not South West, post boundary change

I expect the Wintertons will retire - Sir Nicolas can expect a bloody good pension having been there since 1970. And Ann Widdecombe will be retiring. My partner's parents live in Saffron Walden and it would be in the Party's interests for Sir Alan Haselhurst to retire - he does little to nothing there )-:

Whe, though, can 'majority' opposition seats select?

yes, Patrick it's just South. The Conservative website candidates main page still operates using all boundaries. But then if you click on Iain Stewart's bio, there's a warning about the new constituency.

Justine, Ann Winterton will benefit from a good pension too being there since 1983.

A name suggested earlier for retirement is Peter Tapsell. Tapsell is in the run to become Father of the House. If Alan Williams stands down next time (and considering he was born in 1930, it's a strong possibility), Peter Tapsell will become the new Father of the House. It could be a motivation to continue.

I doubt the Wintertons will stand down, unless health forces the issue. Given that neither of them could be considered to be supportive of the A list process and will know full well that there would be a frenzy of A listers applying to both seats (egged on by CCHQ), I'd imagine they'll stay where they are!

The seat-blockers - soon-to-be bed-blockers!

Ironic isn't it? Various seat blockers are now likely to sit tighter because they don't want A listers replacing them!

When asked if she would like to see Adam Rickitt replacing Sir Nicholas, Ann Winterton replied that they would have to pass over her body to do it!
:-)

I did hear that it was 'rumoured' that Adam Rickett was being 'lined up' for one of the Wintertons' seats.

Apart from being guaranteed to see Sir and Lady W sit tight, this 'rumour' only aggravates Associations and activists and does AR no good either.

I expect it was another arrogant CCHQ staffer with no idea of life in the real world - upset everybody with no positive effect! Still makes for good copy on here!!

Steve, or maybe it was just the local paper going over-excited at the potential sight of a celebrity.

There have been rumours about Rickitt and Macclesfield from the moment he got on the list. As far as I can tell that is all they are - rumours.

My free bit of advice for Adam Rickett (for what it's worth!) is to work to get selected in Weaver Vale (right on his doorstep) and work damn hard there. It's an outside chance for a win but regardless he'd have proved his spurs and will know the area.

He'd then be much better placed for a more winnable seat at the election after next.

It's not much to ask a 27 year old political novice is it?

Cameron and Maude need to look long and hard about what has happened so far with selection. Those that have selected so far are quite active associations who will not be moved by anyone let alone Dave and Fanny. We have had local candidates selected in half a dozen places as opposed to A listers. 30% of those selected are women so far but apart from the black guy in Chippenham (here comes Taylor and Cheltemhan again!) there have not been any blacks/asians selected. Dave and Fanny cannot force any associations to select any black/asian candidates. They will wait till they come across 'easier' associations to try and get them to adopt blacks and asians. Not that those on the A list from balck and asian backgrounds are not capable but because they do not fit the bill in rural seats or putting them in marginals will mean some tories not voting for black and asian faces. That is a fact and the party knows it. What will happen in my view is that one or maybe two balck/asians will get a safe ish seat and then the rest will be left to fight the 'donkey' seats. similar to what happened in 2006 with Vara and Afriyie getting elected and over 38 black and asian fighting the worst batch of seats, the last of the no-hopers. Unless we come to terms with the fact that there is a rise in votes for UKIP and the BNP there is a fear that whereas we used to lose couples of thousands of votes before by putting a black/asian candidate in a any seat, the damage could be worse now. With few safe seats and blacks/asians not being considered for marginals, the face of the party will be much the same. The difference wil be a few women forced on parliament and one or two black/asian faces and so same old tories, same old stories.

We had two Asian candidates in target seats last time: Sayeeda Warsi and Ali Miraj. Don't know too much about the Watford campaign, but a candidate like Sayeeda went a long way towards changing people's stereotypes of the party.

Dewsbury, despite its large Asian population, was probably one of the seats it made least sense to have an Asian female candidate - because she was head to head with a Labour Asian male. Yet the association chose Sayeeda - because she was the best candidate.

Talent will shine through. The fact that Sayeeda did as well as she did was a credit to her own hard work and enthusiasm.

I live on the border of the new Chippenham constituency, and I totally agree with the posting about the likely outcome here following the selection of a black Tory candidate. It is, of course, extraordinarily un-PC to say so, and full marks for publishing these comments. But history (Cheltenham) does indeed prove that there are some places where a candidate from an ethnic minority is just not going to win.
We can wring our hands and debate the issue til the (black farmer's) cows come home, but the fact is Chippenham must surely now be regarded as less of a safe Tory seat. In an area where the LibDems are strong and getting stronger, I think we should expect a bit of a bloody nose come the GE.
I also thoroughly agree with the analysis about the likely make-up of the Parliamentary Party after the next GE. It probably won't look much different from now, in terms of the proportion of women or ethnic minority MPs. It's stating the bleedin' obvious, but it doesn't matter who the candidates are; only who wins.

What our party needs from its candidates is absolute commitment and solid hard work at ground level. Our job is to turn out ALL our voters both old and new and to win a few converts along the way.

Voters have high expectations of their local MP and Councillors. They want someone who will represent them and fight their battles. They are increasingly fed up with career politicians. I'm not sure the A-List is achieving this necessary goal.

The type of candidate we need on the A-List is Philip Allott who at the last election reduced Ruth Kelly's majority in Bolton West from 5,500 to just 2,000 by sheer dedication, commitment and hard work.

Philip has an unparalleled skill which turns Conservative supporters into well motivated activists and an equally valuable skill of persuading people to help with election funding.

Who we select as candidates is probably the most important thing the party will do in the near future. Our candidates are every bit as vital as our policies and our leadership. We cannot afford to sideline candidates like Philip who can win elections for us.

Please let's re-think the A-List, include Philip Allott and others like him and let's face the next election like a lion rather than a lamb.

Do we know when the A list is being topped up?

I disagree with early selection. Our PPC has already fallen out with the entire officer team and half the branches and many others. I would happily shove him under the Clapham Omnibus. Do we get help from CCHQ. Do we heck as like.
And we have four more years of this. I was 45 at the last election and I feel that I must be close to pension age.

A note of caution though the oldest MP of any party is Piara Khabra who was 80 at the time of the last election. If the above emulate Mr Khabra (and stand for relection at 80)
As I gather it he is eager to emulate it himself, he became an MP remarkably late on in life rather bucking recent trends.

I doubt the Wintertons will stand down, unless health forces the issue.
They both know that if they were to stand down now, if they later changed their mind they would be unlikely to be allowed back in, Nicholas Winterton is notorious for voting against the Conservative line notably with regard to privatisations and economic policy and both have used somewhat colourful language when referring to immigrants and people of other ethnicities other than their own.

And Ann Widdecombe will be retiring.
Came across this thread again in Google while looking for a news item, anyway I thought having not noticed this line before actually I would point out that she said she was going to retire but has since announced that she is reconsidering because she is worried she might be replaced by someone picked simply because they were on the A List who she might not consider up to the job.

As of 10th October 2006, of the 36 seats on the Phase 1 list:

8 Seats have been delayed to Phase 2(i) or 2(ii)
4 Seats have not finished selection
(Colchester, Luton North, Richmond Park & Stockton South)
and 23 seats have now selected.
Of the 23 selected, 13 (56.5%) are from the A-List;
16 are Male, 7 (30.4%) are Female

Have all MPs whose seats are significantly changed in the boundary review announced which new constituencies they'll be seeking?

For instance, what's happening in Kensington, Chelsea & Fulham, Hammersmith, Hornchurch & Upminster and Northampton South?

Has ust been confirmed to me that Angie Bray has been selected as the PPC for Ealing central and Acton.

Isn't it time this list was updated? They seem to be coming in thick and fast at the moment!

3.6% of the candidates selected are Rees-Moggs - the same percentage as ethnic minority candidates selected. Interesting.

For what it is worth I support the early statements re early selection. I know from experience that if you move into an area it really takes a year to feel settled and start to really understand the local issues etc.

With up to 4 years to a GE (and probably 2-3 in reality) this is a perfect time to get settled, know the are and the people and have a strong campaign up and running and properly assessed (in light of local team and issues) to dispose of an opposition MP.
If we are fighting against a Lib Dem then it is essential!

I have always been a conservative but not always a Conservative Party Member and this I attribute to the same reason many people are natural conservatives but don't vote Conservative. All this talk of candidate selection and percentages is very interesting for political geeks and Tory activists but flies high over the heads of most voters.

I would like to see more 'normal' candidates selected and no, this is not a call for any budding Mrs Pritchards to step forward, it is a request for candidates that all conservatives, not just Conservatives, can relate to. Mr Cameron has already begun to lay this path but can the Tories walk down it?

At this years party conference I had the unfortunate pleasure of speaking with a Conservative Future member from the Isle of Wight who kindly informed my friends and I that everyone (and it did seem there were no exceptions) was simply "ghastly". He also kindly taught us that the correct way to raise a glass with your friends is to grin with all the Tory teeth you have and shout "spanking". If this is the future of the Conservative Party then God help us.
Our new young friend is the total image of the Tory Party and one we need to curb if we truly do want to occupy the centre ground of British politics. We must embrace all candidates, not simply replace upper class, privately educated white males with upper class, privately educated white females. Lets have candidates that don’t just look the part but are the part. Talk like the rest of us, think like the rest of us, are, amazingly, just like the people they are fighting to represent.

'3.6% of the candidates selected are Rees-Moggs - the same percentage as ethnic minority candidates selected. Interesting.'

Absolutely bizarre. If you're an 'ethnic' on the A list you are screwed as everyone thinks that the reason for getting there is colour of skin and not ability. It'll be the same as the last election with ethnics standing in duff seats as the election looms closer.

Moving to the southwest area near Bath for the third time, I'm delighted by the double selection of the small-but-perfectly-formed minority that is the Rees-Moggs. I'm glad this intelligent, charming and articulate, if unusual, species is being properly represented by both sexes in its native habitat, where it blends in relatively well with its surroundings. Good news for non-fans: despite adjacent seats, they won't breed with each other as they're siblings. (And no, for you urban types, we don't go for that sort of thing in the country to pass the long winter evenings...)

I have returned from meeting of the newly formed Kenilworth and Southam Conservative Association who have just confirmed that Jeremy Wright will be our official parliamentary candidate. this means that there will be a selection for the notional Lab/Con marginal of Rugby.

List not such a rolling record as a stalled record! Any chance of an update?

Come on guys, I know you've got your internet TV lark to distract you these days, but can we PLEASE get this "rolling record of candidates" updated?

I've added four more to the list.

I presume this is the best place on the site to ask this question...

Does anyone know the result of the Stevenage final? I was of the understanding that it was delayed till Nov. 4th, yet haven't seen anything on the seats and candidates list.

Best of luck to Stephen McPartland anyway...

I want to echo Josephs request and ask if this rolling record could be updated along with the calculations so that we can work out how many A Listers, women, ethnics have been selected.

what is the situation in regard to local candidates applying for seats if they are not on the 'A' list or the ordinary list? Can they do it? Does anyone have information of where this has happened?