An analysis of December's local government results for The Sunday Times by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University suggest that the Conservatives may not secure an overall majority at the next General Election.
The 85,000 votes in 61 contests were totted up to produce a Tory vote share of nearly 38% and vote shares of about 28% for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. If translated uniformly across the country that would cause Brown to lose 100 MPs but David Cameron would be fifteen seats short of a Commons majority.
Two immediate reactions:
- ConHome doesn't expect votes to be shared uniformly across the country. We expect anti-Labour tactical voting and the Tories' superior campaign machine to produce disproportionately good Tory results.
- December was a relatively poor month for the Conservatives that ended well. Although the opinion poll lead drooped during December, the most recent ConHome Poll of Polls projected a Tory majority of 44+.
Eric Pickles is concerned that there be no complacency among Tory activists and he'll welcome the Thrasher/ Rallings analysis as a warning to the whole party as we approach campaign kick off on 4th January.
Tim Montgomerie