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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

More proof that the Conservatives have not been marginalised by ex-EPP colleagues

George Osborne on Marr 2 The Left-wing press and political opponents occasionally try to continue propagating the myth that after leaving the federalist European People's Party, the Conservatives have now somehow lost the ear of those parties which remain in the EPP.

This is of course patent nonsense, not least as it is clearly in the interests of our European neighbours to be on good terms with those likely to forming the British government in the not too distant future.

But it didn't stop the BBC trying to suggest in October, for example, that relations were strained between the Tories and Angela Merkel's CDU.

Well, they are that strained, that - as today's FT reports - Shadow Chancellor George Osborne was afforded a warm welcome in Berlin yesterday by Wolfang Schäuble - the finance minister in Angela Merkel's Government.

Mr Osborne has also recently held two meetings with Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister.

As the FT reports:

Mr Osborne's team argues his programme of quiet diplomacy is proof that the channels of communication between the Tory opposition and decision-makers in Paris and Berlin are strong.

"I want to make sure the British government's voice is heard on important financial issues," Mr Osborne said. "It has been useful to build personal relationships with finance ministers. I hope to put them to good use if we win the election."

So can this ridiculous idea of ex-EPP colleagues giving the British Conservatives the cold shoulder be put to bed once and for all?

Update: Here is a photo taken yesterday of George Osborne and shadow Treasury minister, Greg Hands, with Steffen Kampeter MdB, Wolfgang Schäuble's deputy, taken outside the Bundestag.

Picture 41

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 08:07 in Europe | | Comments (83)

Monday, December 14, 2009

Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guardian poll

According to a source inside The Guardian the Conservative lead in tomorrow's ICM poll is down by 2% (since the recent Sunday Telegraph/ ICM poll) to 9%.

This is in line with The Sunday Times' YouGov poll which also showed a surprising narrowing of the Conservative advantage.

I say "surprising" because I expected the negative press coverage to hurt Labour but the attack on bankers might be even more potent than expected.

Full numbers as soon as we get them.

Tim Montgomerie

The numbers are:

ICM

Comparisons are with the most recent ICM poll.

More on the Guardian website.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 17:50 | | Comments (169)

Happy Christmas from Eric Pickles and Santa Claus!

Today I received a Christmas card from Eric Pickles, addressed to "Jonathan and all my chums at ConHome", which I have reproduced below. The questions is... who is in that Santa outfit? I have my suspicions... (click the photo to enlarge)

Eric card
Eric xmas card 2

Posted at 15:35 in Light relief | | Comments (36)

Two changes to ConHome's presentation of opinion polls

From today ConHome is making two changes to how we present opinion polls.

AmendedThe first is presentationally small but we hope instructive. Every time a new opinion poll is published we offer a projection of the likely Tory majority that would emerge from the percentage numbers in the latest survey and also from our polls of polls. Saturday's YouGov poll with a 40% to 31% Tory lead, for example, was projected to produce a Tory majority of 2 according to UK Polling Report's swing calculator. Unusually the Poll of Polls also projected the same majority.

We no longer believe that that tells the full story. Our belief is that a 40% to 31% Tory lead would probably produce a much healthier Tory majority. The UK Polling Report calculator is based on a uniform national swing. It is right for UKPR to stick with the idea of a uniform swing but is such a swing likely?  We think not. We think there is going to be an unwind of anti-Tory tactical voting from previous elections and the emergence of anti-Labour tactical voting. We also expect the extra investment that CCHQ is putting into target seats will pay off. There are also suspicions that the core vote strategy being pursued by Brown will win him more support in heartland Labour constituencies but not among the aspirational swing voters of Middle England once so loved by New Labour. Some of these factors were analysed by academic Quentin Langley in a recent post for ConservativeHome's Platform.

Because it's difficult to know the potency of these factors we are not adjusting the UKPR projection number but we are adding a 'plus' sign to the graphic as a reminder to readers that the majority is likely to be larger. One pollster agreed that the majority could easily be 30 to 40 seats on a 9% Tory advantage.

The other change we are making is to the ConHome Poll of Polls. Up until now we have calculated a mean average of the most recent poll from each of the five biggest pollsters: ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI, Populus and YouGov. In this model a MORI poll from one month ago has, say, the same weight as a YouGov poll from one day ago. From now on we will average the five most recent polls as long as they are from those five market researchers or from Angus Reid (now polling for Political Betting) and BPIX (an occasional pollster for the Mail on Sunday). It may be that we will include two polls from, say, YouGov if they have provided two of the most recent five surveys.

The poll graphic below incorporates these changes. The ConHome Poll of Polls now includes BPIX's survey for the Mail on Sunday and Angus Reid's survey for PoliticalBetting.com. Under this refined system we are now projecting a Tory majority of 40+ (ie at least 40).

YouGov

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 07:04 in Opinion polls | | Comments (55)

Sunday, December 13, 2009

How should the Conservatives counter Labour's 'Tories will increase VAT and cut inheritance tax' attack?

Picture 15  A Tory poster from last year.

Labour's fightback strategy becomes clearer by the day.

We already have seen Team Brown throw the kitchen sink at us for sticking with our inheritance tax pledge. Policy Exchange's Neil O'Brien recommended that the party drop the pledge to neutralise the 'Tories-are-friends-of-the-rich' message. I was minded to agree with Neil but the party leadership felt that rowing back on the pledge would send the wrong message. After the Daily Mail's anger at the decision not to hold a post-Lisbon referendum, Cameron and Osborne are now even more determined to stick with the commitments to cut IHT and introduce a tax break for married couples.

The second part of the Labour attack is now clear. The Sunday Telegraph's Patrick Hennessy scooped it this morning: 

"Labour will make keeping VAT at 17.5 per cent a main election "pledge", with ministers constantly claiming that the Conservatives would, by contrast, raise the rate to 20 per cent within weeks of coming to power."

Ed Balls deployed the attack on Marr this morning.

So the Labour tax attack is clear: The Tories will increase VAT (a regressive tax) to fund inheritance tax cuts (for the wealthy).

The truth, of course, is that any VAT increase will be used to start paying off Labour's deficit and the inheritance tax cut won't be delivered until year three or four of any Conservative government but the Tories will probably need more than that to counter Labour's message.

Continue reading "How should the Conservatives counter Labour's 'Tories will increase VAT and cut inheritance tax' attack?" »

Posted at 18:25 in Compassionate conservatism, Conservative strategy, Labour strategy, Tax and spending | | Comments (129)

'Green Boris' says Darling's supertax on bankers is unlikely to work

BorisOnMarrSpeaking on Andrew Marr this morning, Boris Johnson said that he doubted that Alistair Darling's supertax on bankers' bonuses could work without "super-penalising London".  The Mayor of London said that he shared anger at the idea of taxpayer-funded bonuses but that any attempt to tax these bonuses should have been agreed internationally.

He began his interview by saying that he was a full convert to the climate change agenda, citing the Stern Report as a key moment in the development of his thinking. He paid tribute to David Cameron for putting green issues at the heart of British politics and said that climate change sceptics should realise that there were often good financial reasons for combating global warming anyway.

Continue reading "'Green Boris' says Darling's supertax on bankers is unlikely to work" »

Posted at 10:07 in Boris Johnson (Mayor), Environment, Tax and spending | | Comments (28)

The right to sack bad MPs should be centrepiece of Cameron's 'we-get-it-on-expenses' manifesto

There are persistent rumours that The Times' Chief Leader Writer, Daniel Finkelstein will become head of the Downing Street Policy Unit if David Cameron becomes Prime Minister. I have no idea if those rumours are true. I don't agree with Danny on everything but he's one of politics' nicest people and his commitment to the social justice agenda would make him a good choice. He is highly qualified for the post; (1) He has worked closely with two of the people who will be leading players in a Cameron government, George Osborne and William Hague and (2) he served inside Downing Street during the Major years. His advice on MPs' expenses is certainly worth heeding. This is what he blogged on Friday:

"I am still not convinced that political leaders realise how improtant this issues is going to be at the election. It will form a vital part of the local campaign fuelling an anti-incumbent feeling and it will undoubtedly break through into the national televised campaign too, in some form, even if we don't quite know how. It will become a major test of character and leadership and help decide the election result. Because MPs hate this issue so much, they shut their eyes and hope it will go away. It won't. More than that, party leaders should see it as a positive opportunity to show they are on the voters' side."

I think a lot of the anger towards MPs is over-done but it shows no sign of abating. The News of the World carries a story about "dozens of MPs [pocketing] thousands of pounds in extra taxpayer-funded expenses because of a loophole in House of Commons rules." The Mail on Sunday's BPIX poll captures another element of voter anger. 75% want the Prime Minister's salary to be cut by 20%.  The Tory leader has already promised a 5% cut in ministers' pay as part of his 'we're all in this together' message.  He challenged Gordon Brown to match that commitment at Wednesday's PMQs. Mr Cameron has also promised to cut the number of MPs by 10% by the time of the next General Election. That is a very tricky commitment which could cause countless selection battles in the second half of the parliament and encourage MPs to look to their local Associations' concerns more often than to the whips.

David Cameron needs to be alert to the issue of MPs' expenses re-emerging as an issue.  He has still not committed to the idea of 'recalling' MPs mid-term if they lose the confidence of voters. It is also worrying that Julie Kirkbride's ambitions to stand again remain alive. If she were to stand again she would blight the chances of Tory candidates throughout her region. I'm also hearing that her husband Andrew Mackay is set to be enobled. That would be a very unwelcome move, sending out all the wrong signals.

Credit to John Bercow for today's Mail on Sunday revelation that the Speaker plans to sack the official behind MPs' expenses. The promise came in an interview for Iain Dale's Total Politics magazine.

Tim Montgomerie 

Posted at 09:03 in Parliamentarians' duties and remuneration | | Comments (67)

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Tory lead soars to 17% again in new ComRes poll - but is down to 9% with YouGov - and is 11% in BPIX poll

Tomorrow's Independent on Sunday carries a new ComRes poll (carried out on Wednesday and Thursday) which hopefully marks the beginning of a return to double-digit leads for the party. The numbers are:

ComRes Comparisons are with the ComRes poll published two weeks ago.

Other key findings from the survey include:

  • 70% disagree with the suggestion that David Cameron's Eton education makes it harder for him to be a good prime minister for the whole country (only 20% agree)
  • 66% agree that the Government’s plans for heavier taxes on people with high incomes are fair (28% disagree)
  • There is a 46%-46% split on whether married couples should be given tax breaks that are not available to unmarried couples 
  • 34% agree that the Conservatives have the right ideas about how to get Britain out of recession (46% disagree)

7.45pm update: News tonight also of a new YouGov poll for the Sunday which has a different set of figures. They are:

YouGov 9pm update:

The Mail on Sunday has a BPIX poll - for which 2,036 people were interviewed on Thursday and Friday - which has the following figures:

Conservatives - 41%
Labour - 30%
Lib Dems - 17%

UK Polling Report computes those numbers into a Conservative Commons majority of 38.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 19:22 in Opinion polls | | Comments (88)

In the years to come, Climate change could be as divisive for Conservatives as Europe

During this morning's Week in Westminster programme (11am), presented by Steve Richards, I discuss the politics of climate change with Will Straw of Left Foot Forward. I make the case that the issue of climate change has the potential to divide the Conservative Party in the same way that Europe has divided us in the past.  Discussing it now means we can, hopefully, pre-empt any tension.

We have already seen the issue cause an explosive leadership ousting in our sister party in Australia. Most American conservatives oppose radical action on climate change. Most Tory members and candidates do not believe that action on climate change should trump other policy goals. I have made the case that green measures should be tested to ensure they deliver significant 'other benefits'. I'd say the Tories' three flagship environmental policies - opposition to Heathrow's third runway, Theresa Villiers' support for high-speed rail links between the north and south of England, and Greg Clark's home insulation scheme - all pass that test.

I only had a very short slot within the programme to make the case that 'climate change could be the new Europe' but here are some of the common factors:

The British Left is united in its Euroenthusiasm and its embrace of climate change: The Left sees the EU and climate change treaties as contributing to the end of the nation state. The Left supports the EU, UN and other multilateral institutions as able to deliver tax and regulatory policies that are hard to pass within Britain.

Both are built on ideas that are very controversial for conservatives: The EU is built on the idea that the nation state is dying and climate change is built on the idea that climate change is man-made (which I largely accept) and we can do something about it (where I largely dissent).

Continue reading "In the years to come, Climate change could be as divisive for Conservatives as Europe" »

Posted at 10:29 in Compassionate conservatism, Conservative strategy, Energy, Environment, Europe | | Comments (69)

Why is the Tory party having an outbreak of the jitters?

Andrew Grice uses his column in today's Independent to report on the background to the "outbreak of the jitters" going on inside the party.

It comes after a series of opinion polls saw the Tory lead reduced to single figures (something which Tim considered here a couple of weeks ago).

Grice points to a number of possible causes:

  1. The policy change on the Lisbon referendum - which, he reports, resulted in 4,000 angry letters to Mr Cameron: "The issue for many correspondents was not Europe but trust, a promise broken".
  2. George Osborne's spelling out of some spending cuts at the party conference,
  3. Renewed reports that the Tories are out of touch with ordinary voters, with reference variously to the privileged background and non-dom status of well-known figures and the inheritance tax policy. 
  4. The failure to use shadow cabinet members other than Cameron or Osborne for big announcements.
  5. A reluctance on Cameron's part to go big on the environment.

The PoliticsHome poll at the beginning of the month certainly suggested that the downturn in ratings was a direct result of the change of policy on Lisbon.

I'm certainly not convinced that the last point is of any great significance with most voters and I fail to see how the second point should be taken as a negative: as Grice himself concedes in reference to Lisbon, "trust matters", and being honest about the need for austerity is absolutely vital. Unlike Labour, which, for example, used the PBR to plan benefit increases only to be followed by cuts the following year, the Conservatives are rightly telling voters that it will likely be a painful road to recovery. To say otherwise would be dishonest.

Probably the point above requiring most attention is the fourth one, about the need for greater use of the other members of the shadow cabinet and their teams. True, David Cameron is the party's hugest asset, but he must reinforce the picture of the frontbench being a government-in-waiting by doing all he can to ensure that his shadow cabinet colleagues get more exposure (although some blame for this can arguably be pointed at the media).

On the wider point of seeing a narrowing of the lead in the polls, I would assert that it is probably no bad thing: it serves as a reminder not only that the electorate should not be taken for granted before a single vote has been cast, but also that this election will be closer than some people have previously suggested.

People will have a choice between a tired, failing Labour Government doing its best to bankrupt the country and a fresh Conservative alternative. In other words, there's not going to be a Lib Dem government and any vote for the Lib Dems will only serve potentially to allow the discredited Labour administration to cling on.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 09:07 in Conservative strategy, Government-in-waiting, The big picture | | Comments (130)

Friday, December 11, 2009

"Incontinent" Brown pledged another £700m today, to tackle climate change

Gordon Brown's scorched earth policy continued apace this morning. A week ago he found £800m to spend on helping developing nations combat climate change. Today he doubled that, announcing that Britain will be committing £1.5bn to the same ends. By the time the Copenhagen circus has ended who knows how much he will have pledged.

Will this money be new money and therefore be added to Britain's £178bn deficit? Or will it be money taken from the existing aid budget and therefore denied to anti-malaria and other more urgent programmes?   This paper put together by Bjorn Lomborg recommends a far-reaching programme to tackle malnutrition in Africa. It is transformational in its reach and that is the kind of project that UK aid money should be funding.

The Tories are waiting to announce their policy on this issue until Copenhagen is concluded but speaking on the phone to Andrew Mitchell a few moments ago the Tory aid spokesman accused Brown of "fiscal incontinence" in the way he was spraying around figures from one week to the next without explaining either from where the money would come or for what specifically it would be used.

Tim Montgomerie

> Watch a BBC report on Brown's announcement.

3.35pm: This statement, just landed in the in box, from Greg Clark MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change is discouraging: “It is important to have agreed that adaptation funding is necessary, but it is vital that participants at Copenhagen now agree on an international financial mechanism that can dependably result in the necessary flow of funds.”

Posted at 15:27 in Brown's scorched earth policy, Compassionate conservatism, Environment | | Comments (67)

Fear of double dip recession is driving Labour towards March General Election

Voter confidence in the Darling-Brown economic team has been knocked downwards in the first test of public opinion since this Wednesday's PBR.

A ComRes poll for the Daily Politics programme found that Cameron and Osborne now enjoy a 7% lead over Labour in answer to the question, "Who do you most trust to steer Britain's economy through the current downturn?". They were 3% behind in April.

332617An Angus-Reid survey for PoliticalBetting.com of headline voting intentions - published yesterday - gave the Conservatives a 17% lead but it was largely conducted before Mr Darling had delivered his statement.

CCHQ is delighted at the terrible response to the PBR. Yesterday's dire newspaper coverage has been followed up by today's Economist which has made a strong attack on Gordon Brown's attempts at class war.

A wider opinion poll lead for the Conservatives will settle Team Cameron's nerves but they are still focusing on the possibility of a March election. Team Brown fear that the first quarter of 2010 may see Britain dip back into recession after the UK is expected to emerge from recession in 2009 Q4. The theory is that Christmas-related activity will produce an artificial boost this quarter but post-Christmas retrenchment and the imposition of new Labour taxes (including the VAT increase) will cause a depressed January and February. If Labour wait until May their election campaign might begin with the news that Britain is BACK in recession.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 12:46 in Economic policy, Opinion polls | | Comments (50)

Tories to give "struggling locals the chance to build own rural homes"

SHAPPS GRANT-1 Grant Shapps, the shadow housing minister is  off to Cornwall today - a Tory/Lib Dem battleground county at the next election where the Lib Dems defend all six seats, most of which are pretty high on the Tory target list.

Mr Shapps will be there to announce a policy seeking to address the problem of local people being priced out of the housing market in rural areas.

According to today's Daily Telegraph:

Under the Tory plans, local authorities will be asked to set up a register of families who want to join a self-build scheme. The council will then assess how much land needs to be put aside for a self-build community to be set up. Grant Shapps, the shadow housing minister, said he wants to tap into the vast number of people who are now willing to build their own homes.

He said: “Whilst house-building in general has been suffering, the self-build community has been growing. Most people will be surprised to learn that last year the second largest home builder wasn’t one of the big household names, but an army of individuals who call themselves self-builders.

“Across the country they’re creating affordable homes in the very places where young families struggle with sky high house prices. Under the next Conservative Government there will be an unprecedented shift in power back into the hands of local people.“

“We want to see a self-build movement spread across the country and particularly come to the rescue in rural areas. Local authorities will use the assessment of interest in self-build to help kick-start this rural housing revolution.”

This comes on a day when the Housing minister, John Healey, has said that he is not worried about the fact that fewer people are now unable to afford to become home owners. Read about his lecture to the Fabian Society in today's Independent.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 08:59 in Housing | | Comments (24)

Thursday, December 10, 2009

What should David Cameron learn from Boris?

Picture 2 James Forsyth has covered the "Boris v Dave story" in his political column in this week's Spectator and it is well worth reading.

He begins by pointing out the similarities and contrasts between the pair:

"Both Boris and Dave are, of course, Old Etonians who graduated to Oxford and then the Bullingdon Club. But they are not cut from the same cloth. The Mayor’s friends enjoy pointing out that he went to Eton on a scholarship. Cameron supporters retort that while Boris left Oxford with only a 2:1, Cameron took a First. Their styles are also opposites: one suave and assured, the other dishevelled and chaotic. Boris says what he thinks almost without thinking. Cameron’s pronouncements are carefully calibrated."

Boris has of late placed himself to Cameron's Right by taking a more robust line on Europe, the 50p tax rate and bankers' bonuses - which infuriates those around the party leadership; but where should the would-be Prime Minister perhaps be swallowing some pride and learning from the mayor of London?

Forsyth points out that much of what the party is promising in government on transparency is already being done at City Hall, for example, and that there are close links between the policy-makers at City Hall and CCHQ. But most significantly it is the mayor's political style from which Cameron should learn, asserts Forsyth:

"Boris’s secret is his authenticity: voters feel that they are getting what they see and not being spun a line. They respect that. The rough edges in politics are, often, what shows the public who a politician really is. When someone is going against the received wisdom or taking a risk, you know that they mean what they are saying. Cameron’s fault is that he is perhaps too perfectly presented, too polished, too preoccupied with spin."

Read the full piece here.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 19:26 in Boris Johnson (Mayor), David Cameron | | Comments (41)

David Cameron compares Brown and Darling to joy-riders smashing up the (economic) neighbourhood

David Cameron at podium David Cameron has today launched one of his most hard-hitting attacks yet on the Government, comparing Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling and their handling of the economy to joy-riders "smashing up the neighbourhood".

Speaking to activists at CCHQ, he asserted that Labour have now "lost all right to govern" in the wake of the Pre-Budget Report, accusing them of "irresponsibility, basic deceit and a complete lack of moral principle".

He said:

"I think the Labour Party should be haunted for a decade by what we saw yesterday in terms of irresponsibility, basic deceit and complete lack of moral principle. If anyone needed one more reason to say we need to get rid of this bunch of Labour politicians running our country, yesterday gave every reason that was needed. This country is crying out for change now. We have got to bring that change about."

"Brown and Darling are like a couple of joy-riders in a car smashing up the neighbourhood, not caring what is going to happen and not caring about anyone who might have to take over the mess they have created... They showed no care for the risks they are running with interest rates, the risks they are running for future taxes, the risks they are running in terms of racking up debts for our children."

He said that "the most deceitful act of all" was "to say in your budget statement that you are increasing benefits for some of the most vulnerable people in our country like the disabled, without saying that you have a plan to cut those benefits the year after the election". IN that respect, he compared the Chancellor "some dodgy timeshare salesman who, if they behaved like that, would end up in court."

He concluded:

"At heart, I think there is a sacred trust that every politician should have, which is that if you are at the tiller and the crunch comes, you do the right thing for your country. You put aside personal considerations and political considerations and you do the right thing. Yesterday they did the wrong thing. Confronted with this budget deficit, confronted with the problems, they put their own political fortunes ahead of the fortunes of our country. We have got a few months to get rid of a bunch of politicians who I think have lost the right to govern."

> Earlier in the day the party launched a new poster highlighting the debt Labour has heaped upon everyone in the country, whilst Greg Hands has pointed out that Britain's economic position is now being mocked by the Germans.

> News also comes tonight of a new poll from Angus Reid Strategies for Political Betting which puts the Conservatives on 40%, 17 points ahead of Labour on 23% - the fieldwork for which began on Tuesday and continued until earlier today.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 17:10 in Economic policy, Labour incompetence, Tax and spending | | Comments (15)

Tories unveil new poster highlighting the growing debt we are all lumbered with by Labour

Remember this campaign at the beginning of the year?

Here's the poster which moves on the campaign in the wake of the PBR, highlighting the staggering debt we have been lumbered with by the Labour Government. (click to enlarge)

Picture 19

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 11:09 in Campaign materials, CCHQ | | Comments (36)

Open thread on MPs' expenses

Today the House of Commons authorities have published the details of the expenses claims from MPs for 2008-2009.

See them all here.

I have already highlighted Gordon Brown's claims this morning.

The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow has a busy live blog picking out many of the stories making waves and Henry Macrory at CCHQ is posting regular Tweets on the matter. There are also live blogs at The Times and Daily Telegraph. I will try and highlight some of them below.

  • Labour minister Helen Goodman claimed £600 for husband's office advice - Telegraph
  • More than 50 MPs "flipped" their homes last year - Guardian
  • Harriet Harman say there will be legislation on the Kelly reforms after all - Gary Gibbon's blog
  • What the party leaders and other big hitters have claimed - Politics.co.uk
  • A variety of claims from Labour MPs: Phil Hope claimed £2 for a burger maker; Shahid Malik claimed for 'solid oak bathroom vanity unit suite with Pheonix Stone basin & mirror'; Elliot Morley claimed for a plastic hawk; Frank Cook and John Reid both claimed for toilet seats  - via Henry Macrory
  • Labour MP Quentin Davies tried to claim £20,000 for a 'bell tower' on his home - Paul Waugh
  • Tory MP claims highlighted by Peter Henley: James Arbuthnot bought three garlic presses from QVC at £12.22 each; the year after he claimed for a Duck Island MP Sir Peter Viggers sent in a £115 invoice from a "Bird proofing/cleaning" company.
  • David Cameron's expenses dissected - Guardian
  • The TaxPayers' Alliance blog notes Sir Michael Spicer's internal redecoration of wardrobes and cupboards for £3,025.
  • I have posted separately here on Labour MP Kali Mountford.
  • Jeremy Hunt MP to repay £9,500 for 'misinterpretation of rules' - Guardian
  • Lib Dem Andrew George and Labour's Lindsay Roy had claims for hairdryers refused - Telegraph

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 10:39 in Parliamentarians' duties and remuneration | | Comments (24)

The Tory Day Two attack on the Pre-Budget Report focuses on NHS cuts and a cynical (temporary) increase in benefits

George Osborne on Marr 2 Last night we noted the new poster the party has unveiled, depicting the PBR as an attack on anyone earning over £20,000.

This morning George Osborne has gone on the offensive on two fronts.

Firstly, he is suggesting that while the Government is talking about protecting NHS spending, we will actually see a real cut in NHS spending. The reason for this is that since the NHS employs so many people, it will take a £446 million hit from the increase in employers' National Insurance contributions.

It has also emerged that while Alistair Darling has announced a 1.5% rise in certain benefits next year - i.e. just before an expected May election - his plan sees those same benefits cut the following year. Mr Osborne has described the temporary rise as "desperately cynical".

Interviewed on the Today Programme earlier, the Shadow Chancellor again attacked the rise in National Insurance as an "additional tax on jobs". He said that he was not yet in a position to promise to reverse it, but that this was the measure he would most wanted to avoid implementing.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 08:16 in Tax and spending | | Comments (46)

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Labour are targeting families on £20,000, says new Tory poster

In a preview for ConHome readers, this is a new CCHQ poster, targeting the rise in National Insurance contributions announced earlier by Alistair Darling:

Labour'sEnemy Click on the poster to enlarge.

It will appear on digital sites, online and in direct mail.

***

It's been a very good 24 hours for the CCHQ machine.

There was last night's Battersea Power Station stunt, highlighting the fact that debt is increasing by more than £5,000 per second.

There was George Osborne's well-received response to Darling's statement.

Then an internet operation - targeting people Googling "PBR" - won some praise from The Guardian.

Now this poster.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 19:24 in Campaign materials, CCHQ | | Comments (66)

Tories accelerate planning for end-March election

Senior Tories including David Cameron himself now think an end-March election is likelier than not.

I'm not so sure. I don't think today's PBR will play well with voters and I can't see Brown going to see The Queen early if Labour still trails in the polls.

Nonetheless it's probably sensible for all Conservative candidates to plan for a 25th March polling day.

Tim Montgomerie

8.15pm: Before I wrote this post, Iain Martin had come to the same conclusion.

Posted at 16:26 in Conservative strategy, Labour strategy | | Comments (41)

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