fiftythings

In about ten years’ time David Cameron will be an ex-Prime Minister, touring the US lecture circuit.  Copies of the 2010 Tory manifesto will be gathering dust on university book shelves.  One legacy of an expected Cameron victory at the next General Election will still be very potent, however, and that will be the ‘Class of 2010’ – the largest increase in the number of Conservative MPs in modern times.  These MPs will set the direction of Conservative politics for the next generation.  They will be the ministers of the future.  They may even provide the next Prime Minister.

The sheer number of new Conservative MPs isn’t the only factor that makes them such an interesting phenomenon.  Also noteworthy are their political views and their likely independence of mind.

They are Thatcherite in that they want lower taxes, are deeply Eurosceptic and believe in school choice.  They are at home in modern Britain in that they are supportive of gay rights, are civil libertarian and use the NHS.

Scroll down these pages for a full overview on the instincts of this next generation.  This post on their key views is particularly important.

Although the global recession and the Labour debt legacy have significantly disrupted Tory plans for government the overall consistency of the Cameron agenda is notable. In ten key areas there has been a steady discipline in the modernisation of the Conservative Party:

Social justice: The first act of David Cameron's leadership was to establish the social justice policy group under the direction of Iain Duncan Smith. A Department of Social Justice is a likely feature of a Cameron-shaped Whitehall. The pupil premium for inner city schools, the retention of the minimum wage and a commitment to eliminate the 'couple penalty' in the benefits system are examples of the many practical policies that have emerged from the modernisation of the Conservative Party's one nation tradition.

Promoting female candidates: Huge efforts have been made to promote female candidates.  If the party wins the next General Election with a simple majority there will be at least fifty Tory MPs.  Preferential treatment saw a number of women become Conservative MEPs in June.  Also expect an influx of Tory women into the Lords as the party rushes to ensure it has enough frontbenchers in the Upper Chamber.  Although the number of privately-educated candidates is set to decline efforts to promote candidates from lower income backgrounds have been inadequate.

Gay rights: In promising to restore a recognition of marriage in the tax system David Cameron has also said that gay couples in civil partnerships will benefit. In a blow to freedom of association the Tory leader said that Catholic adoption agencies should be required to place children with same sex couples. 

NHS protection: In his first Party Conference speech the Tory leader said his political priorities could be summarised with three letters: N H S.  The 'NHYes' campaign was an early indication that the Tories were determined to neutralise this once potent Labour issue.  Controversial policies like the Patient Passport were quickly junked and David Cameron has promised that the NHS will continue to win inflation-beating resources from the taxpayer despite the debt crunch.

In part (1) of this series we noted that David Cameron is comfortable with all of the key traditions within conservatism, including fiscal, social and compassionate conservatism.  One thing that has stemmed from this has been the rebuilding of the big Conservative tent.

There have been a few occasions when David Cameron has acted against his instincts to be a uniter.  His hot-tempered response to the grammar schools row being most notable.  His overall approach, however, has been to seek unity rather than division.  Dominic Lawson noted how Cameron's language was part of this phenomenon:

"His tricks of political oratory are precisely the opposite of Brown’s, which is to say, he is a follower of Tony Blair. This involves not the setting-up of dividing lines, but a form of language that is “inclusive” — phrases to which nobody could possibly object."

He has brought big beasts in from the cold including the two contenders from the 1997 leadership contest.  First to return was William Hague as Cameron's Shadow Foreign Secretary (and heir apparent if David Cameron was to fall under the proverbial bus) and Ken Clarke as his Shadow Business Secretary.

The Tory leader's willingness to use all the talents available to him was evident from the start of his leadership.  From the traditional left of the party we saw John Gummer and Stephen Dorrell run the quality of life and public services policy groups.  From the traditional right Cameron enlisted Iain Duncan Smith for the social justice policy group, John Redwood to examine economic competitiveness and Peter Lilley to look at global poverty.

Mr Cameron also wants to plant a portion of the big tent on the territory of the Liberal Democrats and New Labour.  Orange Booker David Laws has been wooed and praise has been poured on to the head of schools reformer and now Transport Secretary Lord Adonis.  Neither man or other targets have yet succumbed to Mr Cameron's charms but there's plenty of time for that to change.

One of the most important observations made about David Cameron's character was made by Quentin Letts in a recent Daily Mail sketch.  Writing in the context of John Bercow's controversial election as Speaker, Letts concluded that Cameron is not one of life's haters:

"One of the Tories was David Cameron who wandered in early for a foreign policy statement and shook the Squeaker's hand with debonair charm. Mr Cameron is not one of life's haters. Plenty of his MPs think Mr Bercow is a sleazy traitor but the Tory leader prefers not to waste energy on such emotions. In this he is similar to Tony Blair, who worked out that hatred is a negative commodity which can only make life more complicated. Shrewd."

Shrewd indeed.

Cameron needs to do two things to remain a source of unity within the party:

1. He needs to show that there is a possibility of rehabilitation.  Graham Brady, David Davis, Mark Field, Bernard Jenkin, Patrick Mercer and Hugo Swire have all left the frontbench for various reasons.  None have returned.  That should change.
2. A tight-knit group of people that Cameron has known for many years forms his inner circle.  It has served David Cameron well but is a little too closed.  His kitchen cabinet will be examined properly in another instalment of this series.

80% of the time I ask a member of the Cameron operation a policy question I get a political answer.  They are doing 'x' because that's where public opinion is.  They are doing 'y' because it will wrongfoot Brown.  They are pursuing 'z' because they don't want to upset a particular constituency of voters.  Insiders talk of David Cameron's fascination with opinion polls.

This fascination has to be understood in the context of the last two decades.  Excepting John Major's surprise victory in 1992 the Conservatives have been struggling in the opinion polls since 1988.  William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard are the only modern day Tory leaders not to become Prime Minister.  Tories have now been out of power for 12 years at a national level and some had wondered if the party would ever govern again.  The electoral success of the Cameron machine is yet to face its ultimate test at the General Election but most grassroots Tories - members of the party often styled as the natural party of government - will forgive the political focus if Mr Cameron enters Downing Street next year.

The question is whether the political calculations that are necessary to end the electoral drought are largely tactical or have they entered into the DNA of the team that surrounds David Cameron?  Has the party leadership become resigned to following public opinion, rather than leading it?  Chief policy adviser to David Cameron Oliver Letwin - once referred to as the Gandalf of the leader's circle - is known to believe that opposition parties cannot change public opinion other than in one or two areas if they push very hard and in a very single-minded way.  It is much easier to make great arguments in government.

There are two great forces in the Cameron project - the fascination with mastering public opinion and David Cameron's broad commitment to the whole conservative coalition.  Only in government will we know which of those forces gets the upper hand.

Much nonsense is written about David Cameron not being a true conservative. The Tory leader is subject to extraordinary attacks by some right-wing commentators, notably Simon Heffer and Peter Hitchens. On occasions Mr Cameron has given his doubters justifiable concerns. His support for still greater state funding of political parties (now abandoned), for example, and the dilution of meritocracy in candidate selection being prime examples.

The overwhelming evidence is, however, that David Cameron is comfortable with all of the great conservative traditions:

• Fiscal conservatism: Cameron promises to bring the budget back into balance after years of Labour squander. Cameron and George Osborne opposed the fiscal stimulus that Brown and Darling proposed at the end of 2008 as "unaffordable".  A decision now saluted by commentators.
• Social conservatism: David Cameron launched his leadership bid with a pledge to restore the importance of marriage within the tax system. He has had to slap down many of his more socially liberal advisers on this issue who wanted the commitment dropped.
• Law and order conservatism: This side of the Tory leader's conservatism has been most evident in his appointment of Chris Grayling to the Home affairs brief but his instinctive sense of natural justice was on show in his handling of the release of the Lockerbie bomber.
• Eurosceptic conservatism: David Cameron's politics were formed in the shadow of Britain's exit from the ERM.  He is a Eurosceptic and delivered on his pledge to take Britain out of the federalist European People's Party.
• Compassionate conservatism: The Conservative Party has a great and, until recently, neglected tradition of social reform.  Iain Duncan Smith is at the heart of the attempt to renew this tradition and David Cameron has given the Centre for Social Justice an enormous role within Tory policy-making.  On the main page of its website the CSJ estimates that 67 of its policy proposals have been adopted by the Conservatives so far.
• Unionism: David Cameron has made important speeches defending the United Kingdom and, under his leadership, the Conservative Party will be contesting the General Election in all four nations of the Kingdom because of the work that he and Owen Paterson have done in Northern Ireland.
• National security conservatism: David Cameron began his 2008 Party Conference speech with a strong defence of Britain's need to prevail in Afghanistan.  One of the most hawkish speeches given by a modern Tory leader was given by David Cameron during the leadership race, on Iraq.  I understand it was written by Michael Gove.  Gove is currently kept away from foreign policy but David Cameron's decision to appoint and retain Liam Fox as his Shadow Defence Secretary is a key signal that the next Tory government will remain on the front foot in the war on terror.

The main issue is not whether Cameron is comfortable with all of the traditions - he is.  The bigger question is whether he will be bold enough to ensure his sound instincts translate into tangible policy advances.  Will his support for marriage translate into a broadly-based agenda for rebuilding the family?  Will he take the very difficult decisions to achieve budget balance or will he merely do enough to pull Britain back from a financing crisis?  Will his hawkishness on defence prevail when the going gets a lot tougher?  The second theme in this series - the Tory leadership's deep politicisation - will be the key to answering these questions.