Leicester West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15126 (48.8%)
Conservative: 7880 (25.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5911 (19.1%)
Other: 2090 (6.7%)
Majority: 7246 (23.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8114 (24.4%)
Labour: 17184 (51.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5803 (17.5%)
Green: 1571 (4.7%)
Other: 552 (1.7%)
Majority: 9070 (27.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8375 (25.2%)
Labour: 18014 (54.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5085 (15.3%)
Green: 1074 (3.2%)
Other: 671 (2%)
Majority: 9639 (29%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9716 (23.7%)
Labour: 22580 (55.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5795 (14.2%)
Referendum: 970 (2.4%)
Other: 1853 (4.5%)
Majority: 12864 (31.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Patricia Hewitt(Labour) Born 1948, Canberra, daughter of Sir Lenox Hewitt, a senior Australian civil servant. Educated at Canberra Girls Grammar and Austrial National University. Former General Secretary of Liberty, Press Secretary to Neil Kinnock and Deputy Director of the IPPR. Contested Leicester East 1983. First elected as MP for Leicester West 1997. Economic secretary to the Treasury 1998-1999, Minister of State for Small Business 1999-2001, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry 2001-2005, Health Secretary 2005-2007. Will step down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Celia Harvey (Conservative) Territorial army officer.
Peter Coley (Liberal Democrat) Born Leicester. Educated at Gateway Grammar School. BT Project manager. Leicester councillor since 1992. Leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Leicester council since 2007.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88467
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 25.2%
Over 60: 17.4%
Born outside UK: 11.8%
White: 83.2%
Black: 2.5%
Asian: 11%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 55.5%
Hindu: 6.3%
Muslim: 2.5%
Sikh: 2.3%
Full time students: 7.3%
Graduates 16-74: 14.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.9%
Owner-Occupied: 53.7%
Social Housing: 33.3% (Council: 26.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.4%)
Privately Rented: 10.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.4%
The most recent Yougov poll in which the forced choice question was asked was published on June 26th. Yougov asked: “If you had to choose,which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?” 45% of Lib Dem supporters said they would prefer a Tory government as against 39% who would prefer Labour to continue in power.
My point being Cymrumark that whilst there may be pockets of people around the country who still hate the Tories because of the mines closing, the poll tax, the corn laws, whatever; the evidence suggests that this group is not numerous enough either to facilitate widespread anti-Tory tactical voting, or to prevent the result of the next GE being a comfortable Tory majority.
Kieran. With such a useless Labour government and leader its hardly surprising that a narrow majority of lib dem supporters would prefer a Tory government.
Just seen Norwich North. A win is a win and the Tories will be pleased. However they have only increased their % share from 33 to 39 mopre evidence that the next general election is not a done deal. if Labour can find a relatively painless way of ditching Brown we will be in hung parliament territory……good news for nationalists!
OK, so there is a progressive consensus except when Labour is an unpopular government, or when they are an unpopular opposition. It sounds to me like there are a few too many exceptions to this theory for it to hold much water.
As to Norwich N, I posted this morning on the relavent thread that a 40% vote share was my cut off point for whether the result was satisfactory from a Tory point of view. We missed that by less than 0.5%, so I guess I am a tad disappointed that more of the non-Labour vote didn’t go to our lass. However if the Labour vote really is going to collapse at the GE to the extent indicated by this result and all recent polls then there will be a Tory government irrespective of whether we are polling high 30s or low 40s. The Tory vote share is important, but so is the lead over Labour. Those of you banking on a hung parliament need there to be some kind of revival in Labour fortunes. Replacing Brown would certainly be a start, and would be a development that would cause me some concern.
This has been deemed to be an AWS (not surprisingly) – would Glenis Willmott (Euro MEP) be the frontrunner here?
Labour has selected Liz Kendall.
Former director of The Maternity Alliance, former associate director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, former special adviser to Harriet Harman (1997-1998) and to Patricia Hewitt (2004-2007)