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Sunday, December 13, 2009

How should the Conservatives counter Labour's 'Tories will increase VAT and cut inheritance tax' attack?

Picture 15  A Tory poster from last year.

Labour's fightback strategy becomes clearer by the day.

We already have seen Team Brown throw the kitchen sink at us for sticking with our inheritance tax pledge. Policy Exchange's Neil O'Brien recommended that the party drop the pledge to neutralise the 'Tories-are-friends-of-the-rich' message. I was minded to agree with Neil but the party leadership felt that rowing back on the pledge would send the wrong message. After the Daily Mail's anger at the decision not to hold a post-Lisbon referendum, Cameron and Osborne are now even more determined to stick with the commitments to cut IHT and introduce a tax break for married couples.

The second part of the Labour attack is now clear. The Sunday Telegraph's Patrick Hennessy scooped it this morning: 

"Labour will make keeping VAT at 17.5 per cent a main election "pledge", with ministers constantly claiming that the Conservatives would, by contrast, raise the rate to 20 per cent within weeks of coming to power."

Ed Balls deployed the attack on Marr this morning.

So the Labour tax attack is clear: The Tories will increase VAT (a regressive tax) to fund inheritance tax cuts (for the wealthy).

The truth, of course, is that any VAT increase will be used to start paying off Labour's deficit and the inheritance tax cut won't be delivered until year three or four of any Conservative government but the Tories will probably need more than that to counter Labour's message.

Continue reading "How should the Conservatives counter Labour's 'Tories will increase VAT and cut inheritance tax' attack?" »

Posted at 18:25 in Compassionate conservatism, Conservative strategy, Labour strategy, Tax and spending | | Comments (92)

'Green Boris' says Darling's supertax on bankers is unlikely to work

BorisOnMarrSpeaking on Andrew Marr this morning, Boris Johnson said that he doubted that Alistair Darling's supertax on bankers' bonuses could work without "super-penalising London".  The Mayor of London said that he shared anger at the idea of taxpayer-funded bonuses but that any attempt to tax these bonuses should have been agreed internationally.

He began his interview by saying that he was a full convert to the climate change agenda, citing the Stern Report as a key moment in the development of his thinking. He paid tribute to David Cameron for putting green issues at the heart of British politics and said that climate change sceptics should realise that there were often good financial reasons for combating global warming anyway.

Continue reading "'Green Boris' says Darling's supertax on bankers is unlikely to work" »

Posted at 10:07 in Boris Johnson (Mayor), Environment, Tax and spending | | Comments (27)

The right to sack bad MPs should be centrepiece of Cameron's 'we-get-it-on-expenses' manifesto

There are persistent rumours that The Times' Chief Leader Writer, Daniel Finkelstein will become head of the Downing Street Policy Unit if David Cameron becomes Prime Minister. I have no idea if those rumours are true. I don't agree with Danny on everything but he's one of politics' nicest people and his commitment to the social justice agenda would make him a good choice. He is highly qualified for the post; (1) He has worked closely with two of the people who will be leading players in a Cameron government, George Osborne and William Hague and (2) he served inside Downing Street during the Major years. His advice on MPs' expenses is certainly worth heeding. This is what he blogged on Friday:

"I am still not convinced that political leaders realise how improtant this issues is going to be at the election. It will form a vital part of the local campaign fuelling an anti-incumbent feeling and it will undoubtedly break through into the national televised campaign too, in some form, even if we don't quite know how. It will become a major test of character and leadership and help decide the election result. Because MPs hate this issue so much, they shut their eyes and hope it will go away. It won't. More than that, party leaders should see it as a positive opportunity to show they are on the voters' side."

I think a lot of the anger towards MPs is over-done but it shows no sign of abating. The News of the World carries a story about "dozens of MPs [pocketing] thousands of pounds in extra taxpayer-funded expenses because of a loophole in House of Commons rules." The Mail on Sunday's BPIX poll captures another element of voter anger. 75% want the Prime Minister's salary to be cut by 20%.  The Tory leader has already promised a 5% cut in ministers' pay as part of his 'we're all in this together' message.  He challenged Gordon Brown to match that commitment at Wednesday's PMQs. Mr Cameron has also promised to cut the number of MPs by 10% by the time of the next General Election. That is a very tricky commitment which could cause countless selection battles in the second half of the parliament and encourage MPs to look to their local Associations' concerns more often than to the whips.

David Cameron needs to be alert to the issue of MPs' expenses re-emerging as an issue.  He has still not committed to the idea of 'recalling' MPs mid-term if they lose the confidence of voters. It is also worrying that Julie Kirkbride's ambitions to stand again remain alive. If she were to stand again she would blight the chances of Tory candidates throughout her region. I'm also hearing that her husband Andrew Mackay is set to be enobled. That would be a very unwelcome move, sending out all the wrong signals.

Credit to John Bercow for today's Mail on Sunday revelation that the Speaker plans to sack the official behind MPs' expenses. The promise came in an interview for Iain Dale's Total Politics magazine.

Tim Montgomerie 

Posted at 09:03 in Parliamentarians' duties and remuneration | | Comments (63)

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Tory lead soars to 17% again in new ComRes poll - but is down to 9% with YouGov - and is 11% in BPIX poll

Tomorrow's Independent on Sunday carries a new ComRes poll (carried out on Wednesday and Thursday) which hopefully marks the beginning of a return to double-digit leads for the party. The numbers are:

ComRes Comparisons are with the ComRes poll published two weeks ago.

Other key findings from the survey include:

  • 70% disagree with the suggestion that David Cameron's Eton education makes it harder for him to be a good prime minister for the whole country (only 20% agree)
  • 66% agree that the Government’s plans for heavier taxes on people with high incomes are fair (28% disagree)
  • There is a 46%-46% split on whether married couples should be given tax breaks that are not available to unmarried couples 
  • 34% agree that the Conservatives have the right ideas about how to get Britain out of recession (46% disagree)

7.45pm update: News tonight also of a new YouGov poll for the Sunday which has a different set of figures. They are:

YouGov 9pm update:

The Mail on Sunday has a BPIX poll - for which 2,036 people were interviewed on Thursday and Friday - which has the following figures:

Conservatives - 41%
Labour - 30%
Lib Dems - 17%

UK Polling Report computes those numbers into a Conservative Commons majority of 38.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 19:22 in Opinion polls | | Comments (87)

In the years to come, Climate change could be as divisive for Conservatives as Europe

During this morning's Week in Westminster programme (11am), presented by Steve Richards, I discuss the politics of climate change with Will Straw of Left Foot Forward. I make the case that the issue of climate change has the potential to divide the Conservative Party in the same way that Europe has divided us in the past.  Discussing it now means we can, hopefully, pre-empt any tension.

We have already seen the issue cause an explosive leadership ousting in our sister party in Australia. Most American conservatives oppose radical action on climate change. Most Tory members and candidates do not believe that action on climate change should trump other policy goals. I have made the case that green measures should be tested to ensure they deliver significant 'other benefits'. I'd say the Tories' three flagship environmental policies - opposition to Heathrow's third runway, Theresa Villiers' support for high-speed rail links between the north and south of England, and Greg Clark's home insulation scheme - all pass that test.

I only had a very short slot within the programme to make the case that 'climate change could be the new Europe' but here are some of the common factors:

The British Left is united in its Euroenthusiasm and its embrace of climate change: The Left sees the EU and climate change treaties as contributing to the end of the nation state. The Left supports the EU, UN and other multilateral institutions as able to deliver tax and regulatory policies that are hard to pass within Britain.

Both are built on ideas that are very controversial for conservatives: The EU is built on the idea that the nation state is dying and climate change is built on the idea that climate change is man-made (which I largely accept) and we can do something about it (where I largely dissent).

Continue reading "In the years to come, Climate change could be as divisive for Conservatives as Europe" »

Posted at 10:29 in Compassionate conservatism, Conservative strategy, Energy, Environment, Europe | | Comments (67)

Why is the Tory party having an outbreak of the jitters?

Andrew Grice uses his column in today's Independent to report on the background to the "outbreak of the jitters" going on inside the party.

It comes after a series of opinion polls saw the Tory lead reduced to single figures (something which Tim considered here a couple of weeks ago).

Grice points to a number of possible causes:

  1. The policy change on the Lisbon referendum - which, he reports, resulted in 4,000 angry letters to Mr Cameron: "The issue for many correspondents was not Europe but trust, a promise broken".
  2. George Osborne's spelling out of some spending cuts at the party conference,
  3. Renewed reports that the Tories are out of touch with ordinary voters, with reference variously to the privileged background and non-dom status of well-known figures and the inheritance tax policy. 
  4. The failure to use shadow cabinet members other than Cameron or Osborne for big announcements.
  5. A reluctance on Cameron's part to go big on the environment.

The PoliticsHome poll at the beginning of the month certainly suggested that the downturn in ratings was a direct result of the change of policy on Lisbon.

I'm certainly not convinced that the last point is of any great significance with most voters and I fail to see how the second point should be taken as a negative: as Grice himself concedes in reference to Lisbon, "trust matters", and being honest about the need for austerity is absolutely vital. Unlike Labour, which, for example, used the PBR to plan benefit increases only to be followed by cuts the following year, the Conservatives are rightly telling voters that it will likely be a painful road to recovery. To say otherwise would be dishonest.

Probably the point above requiring most attention is the fourth one, about the need for greater use of the other members of the shadow cabinet and their teams. True, David Cameron is the party's hugest asset, but he must reinforce the picture of the frontbench being a government-in-waiting by doing all he can to ensure that his shadow cabinet colleagues get more exposure (although some blame for this can arguably be pointed at the media).

On the wider point of seeing a narrowing of the lead in the polls, I would assert that it is probably no bad thing: it serves as a reminder not only that the electorate should not be taken for granted before a single vote has been cast, but also that this election will be closer than some people have previously suggested.

People will have a choice between a tired, failing Labour Government doing its best to bankrupt the country and a fresh Conservative alternative. In other words, there's not going to be a Lib Dem government and any vote for the Lib Dems will only serve potentially to allow the discredited Labour administration to cling on.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 09:07 in Conservative strategy, Government-in-waiting, The big picture | | Comments (130)

Friday, December 11, 2009

"Incontinent" Brown pledged another £700m today, to tackle climate change

Gordon Brown's scorched earth policy continued apace this morning. A week ago he found £800m to spend on helping developing nations combat climate change. Today he doubled that, announcing that Britain will be committing £1.5bn to the same ends. By the time the Copenhagen circus has ended who knows how much he will have pledged.

Will this money be new money and therefore be added to Britain's £178bn deficit? Or will it be money taken from the existing aid budget and therefore denied to anti-malaria and other more urgent programmes?   This paper put together by Bjorn Lomborg recommends a far-reaching programme to tackle malnutrition in Africa. It is transformational in its reach and that is the kind of project that UK aid money should be funding.

The Tories are waiting to announce their policy on this issue until Copenhagen is concluded but speaking on the phone to Andrew Mitchell a few moments ago the Tory aid spokesman accused Brown of "fiscal incontinence" in the way he was spraying around figures from one week to the next without explaining either from where the money would come or for what specifically it would be used.

Tim Montgomerie

> Watch a BBC report on Brown's announcement.

3.35pm: This statement, just landed in the in box, from Greg Clark MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change is discouraging: “It is important to have agreed that adaptation funding is necessary, but it is vital that participants at Copenhagen now agree on an international financial mechanism that can dependably result in the necessary flow of funds.”

Posted at 15:27 in Brown's scorched earth policy, Compassionate conservatism, Environment | | Comments (67)

Fear of double dip recession is driving Labour towards March General Election

Voter confidence in the Darling-Brown economic team has been knocked downwards in the first test of public opinion since this Wednesday's PBR.

A ComRes poll for the Daily Politics programme found that Cameron and Osborne now enjoy a 7% lead over Labour in answer to the question, "Who do you most trust to steer Britain's economy through the current downturn?". They were 3% behind in April.

332617An Angus-Reid survey for PoliticalBetting.com of headline voting intentions - published yesterday - gave the Conservatives a 17% lead but it was largely conducted before Mr Darling had delivered his statement.

CCHQ is delighted at the terrible response to the PBR. Yesterday's dire newspaper coverage has been followed up by today's Economist which has made a strong attack on Gordon Brown's attempts at class war.

A wider opinion poll lead for the Conservatives will settle Team Cameron's nerves but they are still focusing on the possibility of a March election. Team Brown fear that the first quarter of 2010 may see Britain dip back into recession after the UK is expected to emerge from recession in 2009 Q4. The theory is that Christmas-related activity will produce an artificial boost this quarter but post-Christmas retrenchment and the imposition of new Labour taxes (including the VAT increase) will cause a depressed January and February. If Labour wait until May their election campaign might begin with the news that Britain is BACK in recession.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 12:46 in Economic policy, Opinion polls | | Comments (50)

Tories to give "struggling locals the chance to build own rural homes"

SHAPPS GRANT-1 Grant Shapps, the shadow housing minister is  off to Cornwall today - a Tory/Lib Dem battleground county at the next election where the Lib Dems defend all six seats, most of which are pretty high on the Tory target list.

Mr Shapps will be there to announce a policy seeking to address the problem of local people being priced out of the housing market in rural areas.

According to today's Daily Telegraph:

Under the Tory plans, local authorities will be asked to set up a register of families who want to join a self-build scheme. The council will then assess how much land needs to be put aside for a self-build community to be set up. Grant Shapps, the shadow housing minister, said he wants to tap into the vast number of people who are now willing to build their own homes.

He said: “Whilst house-building in general has been suffering, the self-build community has been growing. Most people will be surprised to learn that last year the second largest home builder wasn’t one of the big household names, but an army of individuals who call themselves self-builders.

“Across the country they’re creating affordable homes in the very places where young families struggle with sky high house prices. Under the next Conservative Government there will be an unprecedented shift in power back into the hands of local people.“

“We want to see a self-build movement spread across the country and particularly come to the rescue in rural areas. Local authorities will use the assessment of interest in self-build to help kick-start this rural housing revolution.”

This comes on a day when the Housing minister, John Healey, has said that he is not worried about the fact that fewer people are now unable to afford to become home owners. Read about his lecture to the Fabian Society in today's Independent.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 08:59 in Housing | | Comments (24)

Thursday, December 10, 2009

What should David Cameron learn from Boris?

Picture 2 James Forsyth has covered the "Boris v Dave story" in his political column in this week's Spectator and it is well worth reading.

He begins by pointing out the similarities and contrasts between the pair:

"Both Boris and Dave are, of course, Old Etonians who graduated to Oxford and then the Bullingdon Club. But they are not cut from the same cloth. The Mayor’s friends enjoy pointing out that he went to Eton on a scholarship. Cameron supporters retort that while Boris left Oxford with only a 2:1, Cameron took a First. Their styles are also opposites: one suave and assured, the other dishevelled and chaotic. Boris says what he thinks almost without thinking. Cameron’s pronouncements are carefully calibrated."

Boris has of late placed himself to Cameron's Right by taking a more robust line on Europe, the 50p tax rate and bankers' bonuses - which infuriates those around the party leadership; but where should the would-be Prime Minister perhaps be swallowing some pride and learning from the mayor of London?

Forsyth points out that much of what the party is promising in government on transparency is already being done at City Hall, for example, and that there are close links between the policy-makers at City Hall and CCHQ. But most significantly it is the mayor's political style from which Cameron should learn, asserts Forsyth:

"Boris’s secret is his authenticity: voters feel that they are getting what they see and not being spun a line. They respect that. The rough edges in politics are, often, what shows the public who a politician really is. When someone is going against the received wisdom or taking a risk, you know that they mean what they are saying. Cameron’s fault is that he is perhaps too perfectly presented, too polished, too preoccupied with spin."

Read the full piece here.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 19:26 in Boris Johnson (Mayor), David Cameron | | Comments (41)

David Cameron compares Brown and Darling to joy-riders smashing up the (economic) neighbourhood

David Cameron at podium David Cameron has today launched one of his most hard-hitting attacks yet on the Government, comparing Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling and their handling of the economy to joy-riders "smashing up the neighbourhood".

Speaking to activists at CCHQ, he asserted that Labour have now "lost all right to govern" in the wake of the Pre-Budget Report, accusing them of "irresponsibility, basic deceit and a complete lack of moral principle".

He said:

"I think the Labour Party should be haunted for a decade by what we saw yesterday in terms of irresponsibility, basic deceit and complete lack of moral principle. If anyone needed one more reason to say we need to get rid of this bunch of Labour politicians running our country, yesterday gave every reason that was needed. This country is crying out for change now. We have got to bring that change about."

"Brown and Darling are like a couple of joy-riders in a car smashing up the neighbourhood, not caring what is going to happen and not caring about anyone who might have to take over the mess they have created... They showed no care for the risks they are running with interest rates, the risks they are running for future taxes, the risks they are running in terms of racking up debts for our children."

He said that "the most deceitful act of all" was "to say in your budget statement that you are increasing benefits for some of the most vulnerable people in our country like the disabled, without saying that you have a plan to cut those benefits the year after the election". IN that respect, he compared the Chancellor "some dodgy timeshare salesman who, if they behaved like that, would end up in court."

He concluded:

"At heart, I think there is a sacred trust that every politician should have, which is that if you are at the tiller and the crunch comes, you do the right thing for your country. You put aside personal considerations and political considerations and you do the right thing. Yesterday they did the wrong thing. Confronted with this budget deficit, confronted with the problems, they put their own political fortunes ahead of the fortunes of our country. We have got a few months to get rid of a bunch of politicians who I think have lost the right to govern."

> Earlier in the day the party launched a new poster highlighting the debt Labour has heaped upon everyone in the country, whilst Greg Hands has pointed out that Britain's economic position is now being mocked by the Germans.

> News also comes tonight of a new poll from Angus Reid Strategies for Political Betting which puts the Conservatives on 40%, 17 points ahead of Labour on 23% - the fieldwork for which began on Tuesday and continued until earlier today.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 17:10 in Economic policy, Labour incompetence, Tax and spending | | Comments (15)

Tories unveil new poster highlighting the growing debt we are all lumbered with by Labour

Remember this campaign at the beginning of the year?

Here's the poster which moves on the campaign in the wake of the PBR, highlighting the staggering debt we have been lumbered with by the Labour Government. (click to enlarge)

Picture 19

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 11:09 in Campaign materials, CCHQ | | Comments (36)

Open thread on MPs' expenses

Today the House of Commons authorities have published the details of the expenses claims from MPs for 2008-2009.

See them all here.

I have already highlighted Gordon Brown's claims this morning.

The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow has a busy live blog picking out many of the stories making waves and Henry Macrory at CCHQ is posting regular Tweets on the matter. There are also live blogs at The Times and Daily Telegraph. I will try and highlight some of them below.

  • Labour minister Helen Goodman claimed £600 for husband's office advice - Telegraph
  • More than 50 MPs "flipped" their homes last year - Guardian
  • Harriet Harman say there will be legislation on the Kelly reforms after all - Gary Gibbon's blog
  • What the party leaders and other big hitters have claimed - Politics.co.uk
  • A variety of claims from Labour MPs: Phil Hope claimed £2 for a burger maker; Shahid Malik claimed for 'solid oak bathroom vanity unit suite with Pheonix Stone basin & mirror'; Elliot Morley claimed for a plastic hawk; Frank Cook and John Reid both claimed for toilet seats  - via Henry Macrory
  • Labour MP Quentin Davies tried to claim £20,000 for a 'bell tower' on his home - Paul Waugh
  • Tory MP claims highlighted by Peter Henley: James Arbuthnot bought three garlic presses from QVC at £12.22 each; the year after he claimed for a Duck Island MP Sir Peter Viggers sent in a £115 invoice from a "Bird proofing/cleaning" company.
  • David Cameron's expenses dissected - Guardian
  • The TaxPayers' Alliance blog notes Sir Michael Spicer's internal redecoration of wardrobes and cupboards for £3,025.
  • I have posted separately here on Labour MP Kali Mountford.
  • Jeremy Hunt MP to repay £9,500 for 'misinterpretation of rules' - Guardian
  • Lib Dem Andrew George and Labour's Lindsay Roy had claims for hairdryers refused - Telegraph

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 10:39 in Parliamentarians' duties and remuneration | | Comments (24)

The Tory Day Two attack on the Pre-Budget Report focuses on NHS cuts and a cynical (temporary) increase in benefits

George Osborne on Marr 2 Last night we noted the new poster the party has unveiled, depicting the PBR as an attack on anyone earning over £20,000.

This morning George Osborne has gone on the offensive on two fronts.

Firstly, he is suggesting that while the Government is talking about protecting NHS spending, we will actually see a real cut in NHS spending. The reason for this is that since the NHS employs so many people, it will take a £446 million hit from the increase in employers' National Insurance contributions.

It has also emerged that while Alistair Darling has announced a 1.5% rise in certain benefits next year - i.e. just before an expected May election - his plan sees those same benefits cut the following year. Mr Osborne has described the temporary rise as "desperately cynical".

Interviewed on the Today Programme earlier, the Shadow Chancellor again attacked the rise in National Insurance as an "additional tax on jobs". He said that he was not yet in a position to promise to reverse it, but that this was the measure he would most wanted to avoid implementing.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 08:16 in Tax and spending | | Comments (46)

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Labour are targeting families on £20,000, says new Tory poster

In a preview for ConHome readers, this is a new CCHQ poster, targeting the rise in National Insurance contributions announced earlier by Alistair Darling:

Labour'sEnemy Click on the poster to enlarge.

It will appear on digital sites, online and in direct mail.

***

It's been a very good 24 hours for the CCHQ machine.

There was last night's Battersea Power Station stunt, highlighting the fact that debt is increasing by more than £5,000 per second.

There was George Osborne's well-received response to Darling's statement.

Then an internet operation - targeting people Googling "PBR" - won some praise from The Guardian.

Now this poster.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 19:24 in Campaign materials, CCHQ | | Comments (66)

Tories accelerate planning for end-March election

Senior Tories including David Cameron himself now think an end-March election is likelier than not.

I'm not so sure. I don't think today's PBR will play well with voters and I can't see Brown going to see The Queen early if Labour still trails in the polls.

Nonetheless it's probably sensible for all Conservative candidates to plan for a 25th March polling day.

Tim Montgomerie

8.15pm: Before I wrote this post, Iain Martin had come to the same conclusion.

Posted at 16:26 in Conservative strategy, Labour strategy | | Comments (40)

How many ducks did you spot?

Duck Gordon George Osborne got it right. This was the pre-election report of a government ducking the hard choices.

Over the next six years the British state will borrow £789bn.  The national debt will treble. We heard nothing from Labour on how they will deal with this national crisis.

Despite falling prices the Chancellor promised pensioners a 2.5% cash increase. That's a 4% real terms increase. That's not only a ducked hard choice but a transparent and unaffordable bribe.

Darling ducked an apology for getting his forecasts so wrong. A year ago he said the economy would shrink by 0.75% to 1.25%. It's actually due to shrink by 4.75%. Last year he forecast that this year's deficit would be £78bn. It's actually £178bn. Can you believe a word he says?

Darling didn't tell us how he'd cut spending after the coming [election] year. He's actually spending £7bn MORE this year. Crazy duck.

In the more immediate term he talked about the departmental budgets he will increase but kept silent about those he will cut.

Darling didn't tell us how he hoped to fashion a 3.5% growth rate but based his estimates of future budget deficits on that optimistic level of growth.

It's difficult to see how the economy is going to create more jobs given another increase in National Insurance contributions. It's difficult to see how the economy is going to create jobs given the extra burden he imposed on 40p income taxpayers by failing to link the threshold to prices.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 15:40 in Economic policy, Tax and spending | | Comments (37)

Responding to PBR, George Osborne says the greatest golden rule is you can never trust Labour with the economy

Picture 10 Highlights, not verbatim:

Labour has ducked the big choices. They won't tell people how they'll balance the books before the election.

The greatest golden rule is that you can never trust a Labour government with the economy.

Britain is borrowing £178bn this year. The national debt has quadrupled under Labour. It is £23,000 for every child in Britain.

Let us not forget that youth unemployment is at a record under Labour. One million have never had a job under Labour.

Labour are talking about the few things they say they are protecting from the axe but say almost nothing on the many things they will be cutting.

All the effort New Labour made to make themselves the party of enterprise and aspiration has been abandoned. Labour has erected a sign over Britain saying "closed for enterprise". Every Labour government has taken Britain to the verge of bankruptcy.

Posted at 13:21 in Economic policy, Parliamentary moments, Tax and spending | | Comments (48)

Darling raises National Insurance by another 0.5%, announces £0.5bn tax on bank bonuses and forecasts £178bn deficit for this year

Highlights, not verbatim:

1.18pm: The choice for Britain is between continuing recovery and wrecking recovery.

1.17pm: Guaranteed real increases in NHS and schools for two years plus protection of frontline policing to be funded by a 0.5% increase in National Insurance contributions for those earning more than £20K.

1.16pm: 0.7% target for aid spending by 2013 will be honoured.

1.14pm: Public sector pay to be capped at 1% for two years.

1.08pm: Most fiscal adjustment WILL come from spending restraint but it must not happen too soon in order to safeguard the economy. Next year's spending plans will be honoured. Tory laughter as Darling says he is making decisions "from position of strength"!

Picture 9 1.07pm: Inheritance tax allowance frozen at £325,000.

1.04pm 50% levy on any discretionary bank bonus over £25,000 will be introduced immediately and anti-avoidance measures be introduced. This tax will yield £500m and pay for new employment opportunities for young and old.

1.03pm: I'm making tough new decisions on tax.

1.02pm: New lower 10p tax band on patents emanating from UK.

1pm: Railway between Liverpool, Manchester and Preston will be electrified.

12.57pm: Announces £360m more in energy efficiency investment and tax breaks for electric vehicles. He mentions changes to climate change levy and car tax but mentions no details. [Naughty!].

12.54pm: Brown forecasting 3.5% growth from 2011. [Not realistic]. Public debt as a percentage of national income will be 78% by 2014.

12.51pm: Public borrowing will be halved by 2014/15. Too consolidate too soon, he says, citing Japan's 1990s experience, risks jeopardising the economic recovery. Borrowing will be £178bn this year, £174bn next, then £140bn then £117bn, then £96bn, Darling forecasts.

12.48pm: Inflation to be 1.5% by end of 2010.

12.46pm: Basic state pension to go up by 4% in real terms. Bingo duty will be cut! At least we have on tax cut.

12.41pm: Employment higher in Britain than in competitor countries. Two million more in work than in 1997 today, despite recession. Four times as many people would have lost their jobs if the Government hadn't been as interventionist. But unemployment will continue to rise for some time. [Including during the General Election].

12.39pm: Confirms that increase in corporation tax for smaller businesses will be deferred.

12.37: VAT will return to 17.5% on 1st January 2010.

Picture 812.34: Darling says Britain has been hardest hit in recession because of its very large financial sector, high proportion of homeowners, and exposure to world economy through its high trading status. Predicts economy will be growing again by end of the year.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 11:45 in Economic policy, Parliamentary moments, Tax and spending | | Comments (57)

No killer blows at the Pre-PBR PMQs

Jonathan Isaby's verdict:

No killer blows at PMQs today but arguably a win on points for Brown who had a couple of good (though clearly pre-prepared) one-liners aimed at David Cameron.

Picture 1912.02 PMQs opens with Brown paying tribute to the 100th member of the armed forces to have been killed in Afghanistan this year.

12.03 Tory MP Bob Neil points out Brown's error's last week about Spain's economic situation - "the pain in Spain is mainly in his brain", he quips.

12.06 David Cameron echoes the tribute to the latest fallen serviceman. He asks about the new counter insurgency strategy in Afghanistan and says that we cannot waste time getting every element of the new strategy in place.

12.08 Brown welcomes his comments and talks about the conference being held in January on the matter.

Picture 21 12.09 Cameron welcome US forces coming to Helmand, but says that British troops are spread too thinly there and asks for that to be dealt with.

12.10 Brown says our presence is being thickened there, and that operational matters are decided on the ground. Cameron reiterates the question though, unsatisfied with Brown's answer. Brown re-iterate that commanders on the ground take those decisions.

12.11 Cameron says he is grateful for Brown's answer and moves on to MPs' second home allowances. He wants more transparency on the issue to ensure current totals for housing allowances are published in full.

12.12 Brown says it is a matter for the Members' Estimates Commitee but says broadly there should be maximum transparency.

Continue reading "No killer blows at the Pre-PBR PMQs" »

Posted at 11:26 in PMQs | | Comments (36)

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