Birmingham Erdington
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16952 (52.9%)
Conservative: 7298 (22.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5082 (15.9%)
Other: 2725 (8.5%)
Majority: 9654 (30.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7235 (22.8%)
Labour: 16810 (53%)
Liberal Democrat: 5027 (15.8%)
BNP: 1512 (4.8%)
UKIP: 746 (2.3%)
Other: 416 (1.3%)
Majority: 9575 (30.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7413 (24.2%)
Labour: 17375 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3602 (11.8%)
UKIP: 521 (1.7%)
Other: 1693 (5.5%)
Majority: 9962 (32.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11107 (27.5%)
Labour: 23764 (58.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4112 (10.2%)
Referendum: 1424 (3.5%)
Majority: 12657 (31.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Sion Simon(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Robert Alden (Conservative)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90654
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 25.9%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 9.5%
White: 85.3%
Black: 5.8%
Asian: 5.2%
Mixed: 3%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 70.1%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 3.4%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 4.2%
Graduates 16-74: 11.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 42%
Owner-Occupied: 57.5%
Social Housing: 31.6% (Council: 20.8%, Housing Ass.: 10.7%)
Privately Rented: 6.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 24.1%
I agree with Paul D, but I can’t see Mr Simon losing here unless we have a 1997-in-reverse.
Matt, Wakefield MDC contains Wakefield, Hemsworth, ‘Norm, Ponty & Cas’ and then half (well, two-fifths) of this seat
Only Wakefield is a genuine target of the 3 wholly contained seats here, NPC and Hemsworth being extremely safe for Labour. The recent Local Election successes in Outwood mean theat it’s worth targetting those wards (the Tories were also close in Ardsey in 2008, Morley N&S are complicated by the strong Morley Borough Independent votes at local level) so M&O will be a second target seat in Wakefield. Presumably Birmingham Tories will be focussing on Edgbaston, Hall Green, Selly Oak and Northfield as more winnable targets, while also shoring up Sutton Coldfield
‘This seat’, of course, being Morley & Outwood, to which Matt alluded
I was just interested to know, was it pressure from Morley & Outwood Conservative Association that forced the change to Target Seat status, or was it the local election results? If the former, then what is stopping Birmingham Erdington Conservative Association from doing the same? If the latter, IMHO, the local election results were every bit as impressive in Erdington as they were in M & O
Perhaps it is also to force Ed Balls to focus on his own seat, thus diverting a high-profile MP from campaigning elsewhere?
Couldn’t the same be said for Sion Simon in this seat?
Given that Simon is not very high-profile and has no chance of losing Erdington, I’d say probably not, Matt.
Is Simon particularly high profile?
On the question of pressure from a local association, I was told the chairman of the old Leeds Central Conservative Association was claiming that seat was a marginal. Unfortunately for him, nobody else in the Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire regional party shared his optimism, so it would appear that an association can’t in and of itself adjust its status
“Is Simon particularly high profile?”
No, but James Purnell, Caroline Flint and Nick Clegg are.
The CSI seems like something thought up by CCHQ around 2005 but which is no longer appropriate in the political situation of 2009/10.
It might have been a good idea for places such as Glasgow and Liverpool where the Conservative party had effectively ceased to exist but not in constituencies where there was already strong and growing support. It seems very hard on the Erdington Conservatives not to be able to select their own candidate and organise their own campaign after they have been so successful in recent years.
The CSI constituencies also seem to be chosen strangely. Why is Rother Valley not included but Don Valley is for example?
Robert Alden has been selected as the Tory candidate here…. It certainly seems as though politics is in the family genes.
A very good choice, a local councillor who has helped turn Erdington ward into a safeish Conservative ward
Nick Owen on BBC Midlands Today interviews Sion Simon regarding the issue for which the Erdington MP has arguably been most famous in this parliament:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPNqTjGlT_w&feature=related