Does Fred’s pension put stopping the Tories beyond reach?
February 27th, 2009How can minsters claim competence after agreeing to this?
The numbers involved are on such a scale that it’s hard for the ordinary voter to comprehend the crisis that the financial system has been going through in the past five months. The challenge for ministers has been to appear confident and competent without being complacent.
And for the most part since then the government has given off an aura of knowing what it’s doing which has been picked up in survey after survey. Even when the voting intention findings have looked bad Labour has taken a lot of comfort from the “who is best to handle the crisis” responses.
Yet could all that be put at risk by Sir Fred’s pension - a story it is said that was leaked yesterday in order to divert attention from the big picture - the £24bn loss at the company he ran and into which billions of taxpayers cash is being pumped.
The charge the Treasury agreed to these massive annual payments has the potential to change completely perceptions of the government’s handling of the whole financial crisis. This is very bad news for Brown and Darling.
People can relate to the amount of cash that one man in these straightened times is getting. It’s bad enough that any fifty year old should get a pension of £14,000 a week - when the beneficiary is seen as one of the key architects of disaster it becomes, as the Express front page shouts at us this morning “OBSCENE”.
That Fred is able to sit back and say no just adds to the impression that a major cock-up has occurred and one, judging by the headlines, that is resonating. Even worse the story looks set to stay in the news. This “has legs” as they say.
It also provides an issue for the opposition to get their teeth into and a great defence against the “do nothing” charge. It will be brought up time and time again to cast doubt on Labour’s ability to cope.
If David Cameron was not, sadly, otherwise engaged he would have an extra spring in his step. What a great counter to the perhaps disappointing YouGov poll overnight discussed on the previous thread.
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Morning All,
to be very cruel and go off topic immediately, I would like to recommend this article by Philip Pullman in today’s Times which I am sure will resonate with anyone who feels we are moving into Big Brother territory. Both poetic and accurate.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5811412.ece
First?
Damn!
Back on topic straight away:
I agree. No matter what one might think about the award of the pension itself, the fact that the Treasury had the opportunity to consider it and apparently agreed to it shows the level of their incompetance.
However what is even mopre astounding is the claim, if true, by Fred, that it was then they themselves who leaked the news of the deal. That seems to go way beyond simple incompetance to a whole new level of idiocy.
Sorry LS. Pure chance. And I make a point of not doing the first game.
It’s really late and still I can’t be first. What’s wrong with you guys? Don’t you never sleep?
6-It should be ever, not never!
4 - The defence seems, as always, well we didn’t know because we didn’t read the documents. Well my response if I was Paxo would be “what exactly are we paying you for muppet!”. Not knowing if not a defence, be it, Spellman and her nanny or deciding to give a banker a stupid pension.
That say, unless….
The government were at the time actually happy to sign off this pension deal as it meant that Shredder also agreed to walk away from a rather fat pay off. If you were cynical of the current government, you might think that they thought that they would get away with looking tough by getting Shredder to give up his pay-off and nobody would notice his pension for a year or two.
One theory is that this pension story has been leaked to cover other bad news.
I just wonder if word got out that somebody in the media was going to be a story on Shredders big pension and how the government signed it off. Maybe a big Sunday splash, and forced the governments hand (thus the spin operation straight off the bat).
Could it actually be that they were forced to reveal this story, because somebody had got wind. It was noticeable that Gordo was trying to claim he knew nothing until 2 days ago. Then, within hours this letter finds its way to Peston and the massive spin operation to say what an arrogant a-hole Fred is and he is lying. Rather than if it had come out in the Sundays, the key bit of the letter I’m sure would be “I ain’t giving it back cos you said I could have it”.
The way this is blowing up, either Mandy / Gordo spin operation has gone horribly wrong trying to hide RBS bail-out or they were forced into it and their poorly prepared spin is coming apart quicker than usual.
Night shift.
Also, I actually think the Bail Out damage has been done. Another £14-18 billion yesterday, for most people it is all just pie in the sky numbers. They already know that their tax payer number is being shoveled into banks at an alarming rate, I’m not sure those too dim to fully comprehend what is going on would have been any more concerned by yesterday “hidden” announcements. As for the insurance bit, again many people will just think, oh insurance, that ok.
Yes, maybe the government thought pinning a load more blame on fat cat Fred would distract and help their cause, but they must have known that they signed it off and a danger that it could well blow up. Which is why it makes me wonder if it was “leaked” to provide cover after all. Surely there had to be other safe things they could have used.
The more the banks / bankers are blamed for the depression then the less the government will be so in theory this could end up being good for them. As always it depends how it’s reported both at the high info end and the low info end.
6. Me: What’s wrong with you guys?
I’m like Richard Tyndall. Here for another 3 hours.
6 - I just have a freaky ability not to require much sleep. 4hrs a day is more than enough.
Maybe it’s good news for Ed Balls?
11 - MrJones, I think you have that right. This could all be part of a longer term, “look at how greedy the bankers are” strategy which distracts attention from Gordon’s failures and re-points the finger at the callous, self-serving bankers who take, take, take and reward their failure. Next step to remind everyone, once again, that bankers = Tories = selfish bast*rds = VOTE LABOUR!
Hopefully, the majority of electors are too smart for this to work but, then again, given that they voted for the incompetent scum over three elections, I’m not holding my breath.
The real trouble for Labour will be if the media and/or the other parties can make stick with the voters the close link between Fred and Gordon. The voters can then vote their outrage at the next chance - June for most. C’mon Goerge and Saint Vince - you need some co-ordination on this.
(PS Am I alone in thinking that the photo of Fred which BBC News uses reeks of the evil twin of Steve “Interesting” Davis?)
File under “Eeeeeek!” - Japan’s major industrial production down 10% in January. That afer yesterday’s news that Japan’s exports in January were down 45.7% on a year earlier:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7914040.stm
17. Yeah, for years I was telling people our economy should be more like the Japanese but I’m not so sure now.
17
Sky were commenting on this last night but also pointing out some strange inconsistencies. Industrial output down 10%, domestic consumption down 5.9% but also unemployment down, which sort of doesn’t make sense.
But yes, the exports and industrial output figures are horrific.
19. ..unemployment down, which sort of doesn’t make sense.
seppuku?
YouGov/Daily Telegraph has “Others” at 13% (+3).
In the last YouGov poll (Sunday Times, 12-13 Feb) “Others” was at 10%, comprised of SNP/PC 3%, BNP 3%, Grn 2%, UKIP 2%, Respect 0%, Others 1% (doesn’t add up to 10% due to rounding). That 3% SNP/PC share of the GB-wide voting intention corresponded to a 25% SNP share of Scottish Westminster voting intention (on an unweighted sub-sample of 165 respondents - usual caveats apply regarding all sub-samples of GB-polls).
Look forward to YouGov publishing the detailed data sheets in a few days time.
The last time “Others” was so big, nearly everyone assumed that it was the BNP on the up. They were wrong. The biggest rise in the “Others” numbers was actually the SNP.
20
Hmm, a good example for Brown to follow then.
I had a dream yesterday in which I met Brid Rodgers of the SDLP while I was out delivering election leaflets, presumably somewhere in Croydon. I knew that it was her, because her name was on the copy of the electoral register I was carrying. I was surprised to see her, because (a) I didn’t realise that she lived in Croydon, (b) she was only about 4 feet 6 inches tall. [I'm fairly sure that in real life she is neither].
‘Gordon Brown apologises over ‘rent’ expenses’
Commons rules have explicitly banned subletting of premises paid for on expenses. Those rules date back to 2004 Henry McLeish, a close friend of Mr Brown, was forced to quit as Scotland’s First Minister over a similar arrangement.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/4840117/Gordon-Brown-apologises-over-rent-expenses.html
So, Labour First Minister breaks Commons expenses rules by sub-letting constituency office (McLeish was still an MP at the time). Result: weeks of high-profile media scandal, public humiliation and dramatic resignation.
But Labour Prime Minister breaks the same Commons expenses rules. Result: he apologises and the whole thing is swept under the carpet, aided and abetted by the opposition and the media.
Anyone else out there smell the stink?
(By the way, McLeish is no longer “a close friend” of Gordon Brown. Not since McLeish started to say lots of warm, friendly things about the SNP government, eg. how competent, professional and reasonable it was compared to the last Lib-Lab shower under FM McConnell. Remember him?)
‘Lib Dems accused of flip-flop as Tavish Scott rejects independence referendum’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article5812014.ece
‘Scottish Liberal Democrats oppose independence vote’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/feb/26/scotland-independence-vote-salmond
‘SNP confident on referendum support’
“Successive polls show there is overwhelming support amongst the Scottish public to have the right to determine their own constitutional future,” the [First Minister's] spokesman said.
“It`s for Tavish Scott to defend - to his constituents and, as the Liberal Democrat leader, to the people of Scotland - why he is apparently ruling that out. The right of self-determination is a principle tenet of democracy and the Scottish Government are confident that we will be able to secure a majority in the Parliament to let the people of Scotland decide.”
The spokesman suggested support may come from other parties, saying that the Tories were “moving on the constitution and what powers they believe Scotland and the Scottish Parliament needs” and that Labour had been “flip-flopping” on the issue.
“Certainly we will be introducing a referendum Bill next year as has been well documented and of course we will be striving continuously to secure a parliamentary majority. But I don`t think the people of Scotland will take too kindly to political parties who refuse to allow them to able to determine their own future.”
http://www.inverurieherald.co.uk/latest-scottish-news/SNP-confident-on-referendum-support.5021445.jp
If the Liberal “Democrats” and the other 2 Unionist parties prevent the electorate from having their say, then they face a gory fate at the next Scottish general election, in May 2011.
25. Stuart Dickson: If the Liberal “Democrats” and the other 2 Unionist parties prevent the electorate from having their say, then they face a gory fate at the next Scottish general election, in May 2011.
What happens if a Cameron government imposes a referendum with a question worded differently from Salmond’s preferred “negotiate a settlement” wibble?
Compared to the cost to all of us of the public sector pension deficit, Sir Fred’s is nothing.
Unfortunately as always its sensation that draws the attention, not the real issues.
The BBC is going to do a radio programme about Common Purpose on the Donal Macintyre show, Radio 5 live - Sunday March 8th at 7pm. Please spread the word.
26. What you mean ‘Do you Scots want independence and are happy to pay back all of RBS and HBOS’s debt?
The political, media and business elites never seem to pay for their mistakes. The growing resentment at that, especially in a time of crisis, feeds the “others”, so I think it is a real issue.
20 Just as well I read upthread, unemployment down…., but then realised it was Japan. Unemployment here is undoubtedly getting worse, I know 3 people who have just lost good jobs, and my local knowledge traffic report on a main throfoughfare to Brighton shows traffic dropping even more than last time I mentioned it. I can also see from my window traffic on the A24 in the distance, The evening rush hour is nothing like what it used to be . I know its anecdotal, but if traffic is dropping, it isnt because of fuel costs.
On thread, not sure how much the Fred pension story will damage Labour vote wise, its a distraction bash the bankers rather than bash labour (apart from the incompetence angle) from other apalling economic news about the banks. It does come to it when one baddish story for Labour is better than several other even worse ones. Rendition/Lloyds/RBS/rent…….
29 -Well RBS is Scottish afterall, it’s only fair
Myners has been:
Chair of Gartmore
Chairman of the Guardian Media Group(publisher of The Guardian and The Observer)
Chairman of Land Securities Group
Chairman of Marks & Spencer
Deputy Chair of PowerGen.
Director with Bank of New York
Director with IMRO
Director with Bridgepoint
Director with Coutts
Director with Lloyd’s Market Board
Director with NatWest
Director with O2
Director with Orange
(Somewhat hysterically) Chair of the The Low Pay Commission
Chair of the Trustees of the Tate gallery
Chair Personal Accounts Delivery Authority
A financial journalist with the Daily Telegraph
and it was only last week that he became aware that the decision of the previous board of RBS may have been a discretionary choice?
Sorry, but I find that rather difficult to believe.
One should not forget Sir James Crosby either. Paul Waugh posted this a while back…
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/02/sir-james-crosbys-bumper-pension.html
The pension payouts to Sir Fred do seem to be obscene but I also worry about Labour’s tendency to dip into people’s pensions. It has form. We had the abolition of the tax relief on dividends, the windfall tax on utilities shars which were held by most pension funds and more recently we have had the idea that the local authority pensions pots are fair game for the governemnt use to fund its PFI programme. Pensions should be sancrosact.
33. I wonder what Myners pension and renummeration and benefits packages were? Did he negoiciate them himself?
Last week one of the enemmies of the people was put on trial, his repustation is lampooned in the media. Why not have him liquidated?
Good way of keeping Brown’s sordid expense arrangements off the front pages. What other bad news is buried?
If shareholders or other employers want to base their employees pensions on the success or the failure of their business then it should be made known in their contract of employment. Why just pick on Goodwin? What about every other director of a filed business
There are far too many knee jerk reactions being caused by our febrile press at the moment. It’s time for the government to show rationality however annoying Mr Goodwin’s case might seem.
re 37. Maybe the “knee-jerk” reactions Roger are being caused by the hundreds of billions of pounds that RBS is going to need from the tax-payer?
Maybe we expect ministers to have the gumption to be more careful about these matters?
Maybe Labour ain’t competent, after all, when it comes to dealing with the economic system?
‘Labour leader makes webcast date’
1015 GMT, on Friday, 6 March
If you have a question, submit it by using the form below.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7906174.stm
Love the photo!
He looks like a certain, desperate character from The Dandy.
HBOS lost £10.8 bn.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7914013.stm
re 27 That’s pathetic. What this shows is how careless ministers are in spending our money. That in the overall sense is where Labour has totally failed and why it deserves to be out of power for generations.
And it’s going to be hard attacking the Tories on spending cuts when Labour has proved itself to be so inept. That’s the big charge.
29. chrishio: What you mean ‘Do you Scots want independence and are happy to pay back all of RBS and HBOS’s debt?
I was thinking “Should Scotland become a country independent of the United Kingdom?” - it’s a little inelegant so can probably be improved, but I believe the inclusion of the phrase “negotiate a settlement” is likely to obscure the finality of the decision (and suspect that it is intended to do so).
26. LS - “What happens if a Cameron government imposes a referendum with a question worded differently from Salmond’s preferred “negotiate a settlement” wibble?”
In those fateful words of La Alexander: Bring It On!
38. Perhaps then Mr Goodwin should be tried and imprisoned for robbing the treasury? Taking away his pension just seems so random.
If I wanted to right the wrongs of corporate life taking away pensions from business failures wouldn’t be high on the list. Multiple directorships by members of parliament who are effectively moonlighting at public expense-not to mention ripping off their other employers-would be higher up the list.
Am I alone in finding the government’s treatment of Fred Goodwin a little unedifying? It seems to be bullying him. http://blog.matthewcain.co.uk/government-bullying-fred-the-shred/
Just remember that Labour have the original unpublished version of the Robert Maxwell “Guide to Pension Fund Schemes”. There are still several tricks to be deployed before they have exhausted all the abuses that are available to them. And we thought legislation was there to protect the members of Pension Schemes not to facilitate the the Government’s appetite for more and more funds.
38. “Maybe Labour ain’t competent, after all, when it comes to dealing with the economic system?” but we hardly have an “economic system” at the moment Mike, we appear to have a global economic meltdown. Labour’s response may seem disjointed but if you look at any other country they are having the same problems.
Notably, the USA - most powerful economy - new president with no baggage from the past and superb approval ratings - but there is cynicism about his stimulus package, talk of further bank nationalisations, and the Dow has still been falling.
Not to mention China, Russia, France etc.
If there were a GE tomorrow and the govt lost then it is difficult to imagine that the cons would suddenly find all the answers and get us out of this quickly. That’s what the electors sense, and it’s why the cons’ poll lead, although very good, isn’t quite in the landslide territory.
41 - I can well understand why you believe that this shows great incompetence by ministers, but it may actually have been a surprisingly easy mistake to make, particularly when working at high speed. We still haven’t had enough details to judge clearly, but I have seen a prominent FTSE 100 company make a mistake in very similar circumstances with exactly the result seen here and a seven figure cost. The Treasury’s lawyers should be blushing, but I’m not sure that Government ministers are morally culpable.
I appreciate that appearance is all and this looks terrible. You may very well be right in your analysis of its practical impact.
Japan’s industrial production fell by 10% in January - the biggest monthly drop since records began more than half a century ago, the government says.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7914040.stm
This is the real brown-pants stuff now. If you have not yet sold any equities you hold, eg. in a private pension, do it today.
Am I the only one to imagine the hand of Mandelson behind the leaking of the Goodwin pension story? (Cue traditional response to a pbc question).
Releasing it distracted the public and media and land the opprobrium on the bankers (again) rather than the government - at least until it became known that the government was party to the agreement. There’s also an unmistakable whiff of payback very typical of Mandy about the whole thing. As he demonstrated again with the Starbucks episode, he’s more than happy to ensure that the reputation of people who cross him and Labour gets damaged. However, in the changed political climate since when he left for Brussels, I’m not sure he’s fully grasped how the terms of trade have shifted against the government and how those targets can now fight back with a much more hostile press (even if, as in this case, it does them no benefit).
Leaving the low politics of this aside, I do have a small amount of sympathy with the government here. Yes, they should have ensured that Goodwin went with the most minimal pension available under his scheme’s rules but they shouldn’t have allowed that debate to sidetrack the rescue package - something which might easily have happened. A lot of big decisions needed to be taken and taken quickly. Inevitably, some things were not considered in the detail they would have been had there been a more normal period for decision. Goodwin’s payoff package was clearly in that category. In the big scheme of things, £16m isn’t all that much - though of course in the context in which it is in, it’s politically massive.
As for Mike’s question - no, the Tories aren’t beyond reach but it is just one more thing that adds to the problems Labour will have to overcome if they’re to prevent a Tory victory. But as before this latest incident, the main threat to the Conservatives remains within not without.
47. The mess is so big that it will be very difficult for anyone to negotiate their way out of it. That is the legacy Brown will leave for generations.
35. Yes, I agree with that. Irrespective of the merits of the Goodwin case, the pension was built up legally. Confiscating it for political benefit would be an extremely dangerous precident. Who next?
Where Goodwin has failed, deal with it through the appropriate channels: refer his decisions to the FSA or police to see if there are questions of trading insolvently or of other breaches of regulations or legislation, ban him from acting as a company director, strip him of his knighthood or whatever else is appropriate to the individual case - but not something (else) that would allow the government to point back in future as a justification for seizing pension assets to get them out of whatever hole they might be in at the time.
@48 (antifrank)
I agree, to an extent, that rushing may have caused mistakes. But was there really any need to rush? Surely the BoE could have made a series of extremely short-term loans to keep RBS afloat, whilst due diligence was properly conducted?
I think it may boil down to the negotiator Lord Myners not being a professional politician. To him, a relatively minor matter of millions in termination payments may have paled into insignificance when set against the billions in the bailout.
53 - What appears to have caused the problem was the circumstances of Sir Fred Goodwin’s departure. Because his employer consented to him leaving, his entitlement to an unreduced pension was automatic. I am quite sure that the focus was on ensuring that he left asap and in those circumstances, the pensions implication may not have been noticed. It would not have been Lord Myners’ job to spot this.
If, on the other hand, Lord Myners consciously agreed to allowing Sir Fred Goodwin to leave service with an unreduced pension, he deserves to be tarred and feathered.
“This pension, which started in America, …”
Sorry Roger, he is Sir Fred Goodwin. His former best friend Gordon Brown made sure that he became Sir Fred.
If the rest of us had screwed up on our jobs as Goodwin has, we would be sacked on the spot and told to clear our desks.
Goodwin like Dennistoun Stevenson, sorry, Lord Stevenson of Coddenham gets away with it.
If this story were leaked to push the losses off teh front pages then it is backfiring with a vengeance.
The cynicism of the government about this annoys me even more than the incompetent execution.
Why is John Prescott doing his “give back the pension” petition spiel, when Myners, Darling and Brown knew all along and signed off?
52. Prescott’s just been on Radio 4 ranting. He’d confiscate the pension, and none of the responsibility for the banking crisis is the government’s, just those evil bankers.
54 Antifrank it was reported at the time that Sir Fred was leaving with a £590,000 pension (£100,000 lower than it actually is) so the fact of the pension was known. Its clear from the exchange of letters that Sir Fred was asked to make a number of “gestures” relating to bonus, pay off and share options but that his pension entitlement was agreed. Sir Fred also points out the pension includes elements earned from previous employment (though likely these are a tiny part considering his RBS earnings as compared to those previously).
Lord Myners claims that he thought there was no discretion about pension payment. That seems to be the key issue, the Government agreed to the terms but didn’t realise it could block any of the pension -why not?.
More interestingly politically is who briefed Robert Preston about this and revealed what was a private conversation and why?
When things are going badly for an administration it would seem that every news item can be spun against it.
After Black Wednesday the Major Government were to blame for everything that happened or didn’t happen.In one famous speech the late John Smith got away with blaming the Tories for the fiasco surrounding the rerun Grand National and for hotels falling into the sea.
It all seemed like great fun at the time.It depends which side you are on I suppose.
60. URW. Didn’t John Smith sponsor the Grand National?
So that’s why he made that speech,stjohn ! Back Villa Top4 Lay them for Top3.
It’s a bit late now but last week it was good advice.
Whatever strategy the govt may be following has blown up in their faces.
They are shown (as if we did not know it already) to be serially incompetent. Their pension pot incompetence is spread all over the front pages.
The other issue today is the losses being exposed by HBOS - £10 billion which wipes out a £0.80 billion profit by Lloyds. Brown pushed Lloyds into merging with HBOS (without much thought to anything except saving his own skin) and now Lloyds and its shareholders are wiped out.
Who appointed Myners? Who is Myners best pal ? Who did Myners make donations to (from his profits from short selling no doubt) — Who?
Need you ask?
People - including the media - are missing a key fact: Myners is a specialist in remuneration. He has designed remuneration systems at various financial institutions, sat on remuneration committees and even chaired some of them.
If there is one person in Britain who would certainly have understood the precise nature of Sir Fred Goodwin’s package it was Paul Myners. His protestations of ignorance on whether the pension was discretionary are, literally, incredible.
‘Lesbi@n couple win right to NHS fertility treatment after legal threat’
They used controversial new equality laws to launch their case in Scotland’s highest civil court yesterday, backed by a government watchdog which believes they suffered ‘indirect discrimination’.
Caroline Harris, 28, and Julie McMullan, were suing NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde for £20,000 at the Court of Session in Edinburgh, claiming they were victims of discrimination.
http://tinyurl.com/breexq
‘Ivf-Ban Lesbi@ns Sue Nhs For £20k ‘
Daily Record: http://tinyurl.com/c73y7u
Scotsman: http://tinyurl.com/achawb
Telegraph: http://tinyurl.com/auvhhj
56
Well said. It shouldn’t be forgotten who knighted Goodwin (and Myners) and who ennobled Myners.
O/T update on the ‘Wells thesis ‘
The GFK consumer confidence survey for February showed a slight improvement. The headline balance at -35 from -37. The forward looking index on economic prospects up to -40 from -48, the forward looking index for personal financial position up to -8 from -14.
With the Tory lead slightly down in last night’s poll, once again it seems that economic prospects are correlating well with the polling numbers.
The apparent sensitivity of the polling figures to shifts in the consumer mood is I think a slight problem for the Tories, as ultra-gloom cannot be guaranteed to persist all the way to mid-2010.
Mike, your spam trap dislikes lovers of the Sapphic variety.
Doh
(and Crosby)
There needs to be a split between the pension benefits that Goodwin had accrued for services to the date of his termination and the additional ammounts offered to get him to go. The 2007 annual report gives the transfer value of his accrued rights at the end of 2007 as £8.3 million with an annual addition of £1.3 million, which would suggest his accrued rights at October 2008 would have been in the region of £9 million. The other £7 million is the “premium” paid to induce him to go.
Any major investor in a company that did not look at the details of this additonal payment and ask the questions “do we have to pay it?” and “is it value for money?” would be clearly negligent. The answers at the time were clearly either “we have to pay” or “its worth paying to get him to go quietly”. In either case the minister responsible should now stand up and defend their choice. Trying to lead the pack in claiming that Goodwin is immoral and they didn’t know is just fraudulent.
Which just about sums up the performance of this government and it’s policitised and deskilled civil service.
25.”If the Liberal “Democrats” and the other 2 Unionist parties prevent the electorate from having their say, then they face a gory fate at the next Scottish general election, in May 2011.”
And if the SNP don’t pull their finger out and realise that the most important issue right now is the economy rather than their independence referendum, the Unionist parties might benefit from this.
71, they wouldn’t be preventing the electorate having their say anyway. The electorate can back the SNP at elections if they want a referendum.
Iain Martin has a column on the disintegration of authority within the Government revealed in the leadership positioning and open revolt against Royal Mail proposals. After describing the activity that must be going on in preparation for next weeks address to joint session of Congress he says:
“He will agonise over his words even more obsessively than usual because he imagines, wrongly, that the occasion offers the possibility of vindication and a fresh start for his premiership. It matters, certainly, but not for those reasons. Instead, Tuesday’s address is the valedictory pinnacle of his public career: a figurative full-stop rather than any kind of new chapter.
For Brown’s government is disintegrating. ”
That seems to be the new narrative across the media, a PM seeking vindication and a fresh start but a Government, in chaos again following the false dawn of last Autumn where discipline and direction seemed to have been re-discovered.
“The PM is not entirely alone in his bunker. Impressed by his fortitude, there are still loyal friends and advisers hoping that something, anything, will turn up. Said one earlier this week, before the death of Ivan Cameron stilled life at Westminster: “We’re still at 30 points in the polls. Thirty points! After everything that’s happened.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/iainmartin/4841143/Indiscipline-chaos-and-decay-this-is-how-governments-die.html
59.”More interestingly politically is who briefed Robert Preston about this and revealed what was a private conversation and why?”
Ted, that is also something I would like to know.
72.Absolutely Morris Dancer.
66 Bankers knighted by New Labour:–
Fred Goodwin Former chief executive, RBS
Peter Burt Former deputy chairman, HBOS
George Mathewson Retired chair, RBS
Victor Blank Non-executive chairman, Lloyds TSB
Brian Pitman Former chairman and chief executive, Lloyds TSB
Tom McKillop Outgoing chair, RBS
Nigel Rudd Outgoing deputy chairman, Barclays
John Bond Former HSBC chairman
But, that was when they were friends. Now, New Labour are going to take their hubcaps away.
74 Interesting to see Peston on the news yesterday evening saying that Goodwin blames him (in part) for the flack coming in his direction. I think Peston was really just bigging himself up, but this does clearly show that the leak did not come from Goodwin’s end.
76 Knights in the Guy of Gisburn mould, rather than Robin of Loxley.
Daily Mash bang on the money again….
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/brown-refuses-to-hand-back-pension-200902271606/
Curiously appropriate to the thread, too.
71. It’s never a good time for a referendum, for Unionists, though is it? If the economy is doing extremely well then it is a case of “you wouldn’t want to break up this successful Union with its successful economy?” When the UK is looking like a basket case with recession palor, it is a case of “stick with the sinking ship”.
The problem, again for the incorporationists, is that the lack of economic powers held by the Scottish Parliament is equivalent to the economic problems Scotland faces. I think people can see that. The more powers the Scottish Parliament gains, the less relevant the Union comes. I’m continually amazed at the notion of many incorporationists that giving the Scottish Parliament more power will strengthen the “Union”. Utter madness.
The SNP don’t need to *do* anything to move towards their goal of independence, the Unionist parties are doing that for them. As long as the SNP continue to exist, Unionists will still do their bidding for them. If Unionists cannot see that, then they are even more stupid than I give them credit for.
As I point out, referendum or no referendum, a Conservative UK Government (should one exist at some point in the future) will have little choice but make Scotland largely independent
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/minister-tells-unions-to-stop-boosting-the-bnp-1633403.html
The government doesn’t know if it’s coming or going when it comes to the BNP. Blears says one thing; Flint says more or less the direct opposite.
“GO FORTH” should have been the caption for the cartoon in today’s cartoon on the Comment page, depicting Brown, Darling and company crashing to their doom, as Brown drives the train into irretrievable disaster - ie into the sea. It might have made Prescott and Campbell think again about their campaigning slogan.
I should have said the cartoon in the Telegraph.
Of course these bankers getting such huge pensions has parallels with the Major years when we saw “fat cats” like British Gas’s Cedric Brown getting huge amounts of money to general public distaste.
As each day goes by this government starts to resemble the dying days of John Major more and more.
78 I think I agree with Mervyn King.
New Labour wanted to be friends with the bankers when the banks were astonishingly profitable.
Now they are an enormous liability, New Labour want to scratch their vintage motor cars.
It looks vindicative.
Does anyone seriously believe that a control freak like Brown did not know about Sir Fred’s wedge?
The question is will Myners go quietly or implicate Brown?
84. Hmm tricky as they have already given him a peerage. Perhaps they can divert some of Fred’s pension his way to keep him quiet.
Chris, you have certainly changed your tune. It is not that long ago that you were desperately pleading for a referendum on Scottish independence, to kill nationalism stone dead.
Why the change of tune? Are you worried that the electorate might not vote the “correct” way?
47. Ermintrude. I note that we have moved from the original Labour position of trying to pretend that Brown is competent and everyone has confidence in him - your position and that of most Labourites who were trying to defend Labour, to “no one knows what to do” and the Conservatives wouldnt be able to solve the problem any better.
Well done. You have finally realised that Brown isnt very good. The reality is that all choices from here are bad ones and painful ones. Some of the required choices are going to entail a great deal of risk, notably quantitative easing.
In the medium to long term, we know that the Tories will do a far better job than Labour - for a start they will not be as wedded to the centralised control structure and bizarre IT projects that Labour and, in particular, Gordon Brown have favoured.
In the short run, the Conservatives will probably be marginally more competent. They probably wouldnt have gone with the VAT cut, which was a bad idea. They would have moved earlier to deal with the problem of bank lending and guarantees, which Labour pooh-poohed and then belatedly climbed on board.
Brown just isnt very good. He tends to be deflected by tactical considerations and partisan political advantage. His grasp of economic policy is poor - he can talk the talk, but he cannot walk the walk.
In conclusion, replacing Labour with the Conservatives will not lead to an instant recovery - the mess that Gordon created is far too big for that - but it will be handled better and the long term prospects will be far better.
To be fair, at least part of the problem is the relatively imminent election that makes each difficult choice more difficult still. However, even taking this into account, the fact that Brown is responsible for many of the problems and his acknowledged desire to play party politics, plus his poor understanding of policy, mean that the Tories would still be a far better choice to run the country.
80.”The SNP don’t need to *do* anything to move towards their goal of independence, the Unionist parties are doing that for them. As long as the SNP continue to exist, Unionists will still do their bidding for them. If Unionists cannot see that, then they are even more stupid than I give them credit for.
As I point out, referendum or no referendum, a Conservative UK Government (should one exist at some point in the future) will have little choice but make Scotland largely independent”
Sorry, but the SNP are peddling and posturing on this issue big time right now. And no, I don’t think that the Unionists are nearly as blind to the SNP strategy on this as they were back in 2007. And this arrogant assumption that they are that stupid speaks volumes about a certain arrogance and Holyrood bubble mentality seeping into the current administration’s language. I think that the SNP held a very strong position 2007, and the Unionist parties certainly played their part in helping Salmond’s strategy back then.
But, you very last paragraph sums up the very obvious weakness opening up in the SNP operation generally on this issue. And if the Salmond and his team want to follow Gordon Brown&Co in making the fundamental mistake of underestimating Cameron, carry on regardless as they say.
80. Grandstander
Shhhhh…..
82. But old Cedric moved a company from being an unprofitable basket case to an efficient provider reducing prices, reducing labour, and increasing share price and profit.
A CEO who achieves this deserves a big pay rise.
27. It snot the pension its the fact that the Government put in all our money and then agree to pay this amount that is the point. These clowns could not run a bath never mind a country.
As someone who was aware of the depth of our economic malaise well before most of the MSM, I have a nagging anxiety about the quality of our nations’ governance. Request to Morus: Saturday’s blog - if all is quite on the Westminster front - can you scribe something along the lines of “Liberalism in the Twenty-first Century”, a’la John Stuart Mills…?
I need a ray of hope at the mo’….
On his return to the front line, Cameron needs to almost solely focus on tieing Labour’s link to the banks and big money. For the past fifteen years or so, Labour has crawled into bed with big money, both corporations and the connected wealthy who were happyto bankroll them. Big business has had a rules-lite free-for-all, Labour three election wins on the back of the resulting crdit bubble. Now Cameron needs to bind them together in the voters’ mind.
Perhaps he should lead a couple of pigs into the Chamber, one wearing a “Fred the Shred” jacket, the other one claiming to be Mandy “we are intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich” Mandelson.
Oink Oink!!. It worked well enough for the unions with “Cedric”. Ain’t payback a bitch…
#92 [ February 27th, 2009 at 9:35 am ]
That should be quiet….
, 
87 “In conclusion, replacing Labour with the Conservatives will not lead to an instant recovery - the mess that Gordon created is far too big for that - but it will be handled better and the long term prospects will be far better.”
It will also satisfy the voters’ blood-lust that someone is going to have to pay for this cluster f*ck….
#93, [ February 27th, 2009 at 9:36 am ]
Oink Oink!!. It worked well enough for the unions with “Cedric”. Ain’t payback a bitch…
Marquee Mark
You ain’t telling any porkies…!
32. Yes we need to take credit for RBS , however , BOS has now been taken over twice by English banks , so apart from its name being mentioned now and again it is a long time since it was a Scottish bank and is now a de facto subsidiary of an English bank and has been for a considerable time.
There seems to be a circular argument here.
If Fred Goodwins pension entitlement was discretionary and no-one used there discretion to decide it, it would still be discretionary.
But it would seem that it is no longer discretionary, and therefore someone has used their discretion to decide it.
So who signed off on it?
96 I hope it doesn’t prove to be one of my rasher comments
93. Yes it’s been interesting to note that our recent discussions about ‘regulatory capture’ that have focused on the FSA et al. have missed the biggest example of all - the complete capture of the Labour Party by big business interests (UK and overseas), a substantial proportion of which are grossly self-interested or corrupt…
48. It is very clear that the current government are donkeys being led by a donkey , there is no valid excuse for their constant incompetence. The only things they appear able to do correctly are the claiming of the maximum amount of expenses and allowances in dubious circumstances. In their own financial matters they never miss a penny , however if its taxpayers then billions are irrelevant.
98 - If I read the press reports right, Sir Fred Goodwin was entitled to the unreduced pension if his employment ended with the consent of his employer. The discretion was whether RBS agreed that he could go, not to him receiving a better pension. So no discretion needed to be exercised directly in relation to the pension.
Peter Hoskin at the Coffee House Blog on Yet another broadside against Brown’s economic management
“For the third day in a row, the head of a prominent indendent body has given Gordon Brown a kicking. After Lord Turner’s attack on Brown’s regulatory system, and Mervyn King’s comments yesterday, Steven Bundred, the chief executive of the Audit Commission, today laments our massive public debt. His article in the Times (headline: ‘Our public debt is hitting Armageddon levels’) is well worth reading in full, but here are a few key passages:
“Those who are too young to remember [1975-76 and 1993-94] would do well to learn about them fast - because even the dark years of the mid-1970s and the early 1990s may look like days of wine and roses quite soon…
…With the debts of the nationalised and part-nationalised banks now on the public sector balance sheet, the ratio of public sector debt to GDP in the UK exceeds that of Italy and Japan. And it is set to grow much higher. On the basis of the planned levels of borrowing, it could exceed 65 per cent of GDP in 2010-11.”
87
Ken
In my view, it is largely irrelevant what our Government does.
Events are being shaped by Eastern Europe (imminent collapse or bailout by EC), the EC (does Germany want to bail out the rest and if it does on what terms? . If not, goodbye EC), the US (GM and Chrsyler dead , AIG dead, most of the banks dead.. 20 years no growth) and the Japan ( stuffed for 10 years).
We are just a small bystander with our own problems and little input into the really big ones.
“May you live in interesting times”.. I suspect the 1929 - 32 great Depression will look like a picnic when this is over.
The economists on the whole are about 12 months behind in coming to terms with reality.
As for Labour, its vote is holding up well. I do not find the Conservatives very appealing to me (as a small “c” Conservative) so I am not surprised. But then since memories of the last Conservative Government are still relatively fresh, I understand why.
102 - wrong positioning of italics, but I hope the point I was trying to make is clear.
The story’s not great, but the article falls into the pb.com trap over over-interpreting each day’s news - the Damian Green story, the Baby P exchanges in the Commons, and many other events were seen by many here as likely to have a decisive effect, but none of them come into the ‘putting beyond reach’ category. People make up their minds over a long period, and many decide only in the last couple of months.
Also think we generalise too easily on the basis of scanty evidence. In our by-election the Tory campaign was decidedly un-local - the polling day leaflet was entitled “send Gordon Brown a message!” The BNP leaflet was entitled “enough is enough - stop the banksters!” The former dropped 1.5%, the latter lost nearly a quarter of their vote. This is in the East Midlands, where woody has said Labour has “the stench of death” (we gained 3.9% over 2007 and nearly matched the 2003 result) and many people have talked about a BNP surge. Does this prove anything nationally? No. But there’s a lot of local variation, and the ‘kick the bankers and the government’s handling of them” isn’t a killer bullet any more than anything else.
87 Ken “I note that we have moved from the original Labour position of trying to pretend that Brown is competent and everyone has confidence in him - your position and that of most Labourites who were trying to defend Labour, to “no one knows what to do” and the Conservatives wouldnt be able to solve the problem any better.”
That I think is the key point. The Labour ‘competence’ line has rapidly fallen apart. Fred the Shred’s pension will act as an easily-understood example of that for the average voter, who may well feel unqualified to judge bank bailouts, but will certainly understand a £693,000 a year reward for failure,
Now, this has an interesting implication for the question of whether Brown will survive to the next election. Because if Brown is no longer seen by the public as competent in economic matters, then Labour has lost the one remaining reason for keeping him. I still think on balance that he will stay, but this tilts the probabilities a little further towards him going.
88. And the Unionist parties aren’t posturing and peddling at the same time?
I really cannot see what the SNP have changed in regards to the way they are dealing with the constitutional issue. Or perhaps the smell of panic we are now getting, is that the well known SNP gradualist Mike Russell MSP Nhas been appointed Minister with responsibility for such issues.
I don’t think the SNP are underestimating David Cameron, but my point about the Conservatives and more powers was a constitutional one, rather than a political one. And it is to do with the substantial lack of legitimacy that the Tories will have in Scotland with their deep minority of seats and votes here.
But now for a political point - let’s face it, are the Conservatives south of the border quite as Unionist as staunchly Unionist as their Scottish counterparts? I don’t see much evidence of that, David Cameron notwithstanding. Wasn’t there a plan hatched not so long ago to cut the Scottish Conservatives adrift as they were seen as a hindrance, rather than a help to the party at large?
49. There is a glimmer of good news in the Japanese industrial production figures, although it’s still pretty poor. While production fell again month-on-month, the inventory level finally fell month-on-month. However production fell 10%, inventory by 2%. Worryingly shipments fell by 11.4%, which means that the ratio of inventory to shipments still continued to rise.
http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/tyo/iip/index.html
Suffice it to say, that this suggests that even with the restoration of global trade finance, it doesnt look like there is going to be any recovery in demand soon.
Why are the Japanese being hit so hard? Because their exports are high end stuff and they are heavily weighted towards industrial stuff (who wants to build capacity now?) and consumer durables and semi-durables. No one is spending on new cars, stereos etc.
So why is the UK doing relatively better? Partially the currency, partially because Uk production is weighted towards stuff that doesnt slow so dramatically. However, it will slow and once we have gone through the cushion provided by lowering interest rates, the UK has far less of a cushion to ease the shock.
The news is pretty grim. Next major economic news - US job numbers.
Labour’s coffin is being nailed down, not by moral sleaze like the Tories, but by financial sleaze. From the very beginnings with Ecclestone, it just kept growing and gathering pace. Now the party’s addiction to money and those who have it is like a crushing giant boulder. They will not escape it. Replacing Brown will make no difference. They must replace their entire ethos, and that can only happen in opposition. Fortunately, they will get that chance next year.
Mike you’re aboslutely right. No-one can understand the complicated bailouts (is it number 3 we’re on) but they do understand that this very fat cat has had his snout firmly in the trough and the government just tickled his tummy and let him get away with it.
If this was leaked to divert attention then it’s just another example of the Brown/Darling incompetence as this story will hurt the government far more.
106 NickP - There won’t be a single killer bullet; just a steady drift away from Labour. Death by a thousand cuts, as John Major experienced.
71, Christina, as you well know they are doing the best they can in the circumstances , and are capable of handling the economy and drafting a referendum bill. They have little power to change anything as it all comes from Westminster, and Brown does not like them. They are planning for the £500 million reduction expected soon.
The frequent suggestion that the Fred G pension is so small in the larger mess that it is not significant is an indication that the fritter factor has infected this site as well as the government.
Look at the big picture they cry.
My granny dinned into me that I should look after the pennies and the pounds would look after themselves. And it has not hurt me over the years. The very opposite in fact.
If the government took more care with taxpayers’ money then they may have had more credibility when it came to the crunch. It may not have made such crass mistakes. Perhaps would not have been blinded by the bling.
Instead they seem infected with the same disease as the bankers - not surprising as they have been sleeping with them for 12 years. After all it is only investor/taxpayers’ money. There is more where that comes from anytime we want it.
90 Gaz, As a monopoloy provider, British Gas was not allowed to be profitable - it spent great tranches of money on grand R&D programmes in order to look less profitable, and the price it could sell gas for was controlled. At the time of energy liberalisation, British Gas had a big advantage against all of the regional electricity boards it was now competing against - it was the only one with national coverage. Therefore, it was much easlier for BG to take market share in the electricity sector than for the REBs to take market share in the gas sector.
If you look at other sectors of the business - Transco, a national monopoly post privatisation, benefitting from the increased transit revenue resulting from the “dash for gas” in power generation; offshore - Morecambe Bay was a huge source of revenue, developed when the company was a nationalised utility. So I wouldn’t give Cedric too much praise.
87. You exaggerate my position in order to attack it. I didn’t say, “no one knows what to do”. But since the crisis started, originally with the banks, the “real” economy has gone into recession so now the banking collapse and the economic recession are feeding off each other.
If anyone has ideas what to do, it is Gordon. That’s why the lead-up to the G20 and what happens there are important. Crucial decisions have to be made, for example about better bank regulation and these need to be at an international level where the UK will certainly be listened to.
Mr Squeaky is very good at playing a blame game but I wouldn’t trust him to do any better. If you can explain in simple terms what his policy prescriptions are as of today (not what the govt should or should not have done) then I would find it very interesting.
@104 (Madasafish)
So what you are saying is, Germany will be taking over Eastern Europe? Hmmm….
72. The voting system is set such that any party is highly unlikely to get sufficient seats to be in this position. Just because people vote Labour or Conservative does not mean that they would not consider independence. Unionists know the score , hence the reason they are dead set against a referendum.
116 - “If anyone has ideas what to do, it is Gordon.”
On what evidence do you form that belief?
102. madasafish. Oh yes, I agree policy decisions here are marginal at best. If Obama and Bernanke foul up the US, we are toast. If the ECB and the Germans foul up Europe we are toast. If the Japanese and the Chinese panic, everyone is toast.
Bottom line - lots of banks and firms are insolvent. We need to cull the worst, consolidate and put new equity into the best. Cost - 20% of GDP? It means shafting savers and putting firms like GM and Chrysler out of our misery.
The public spending boosts put forward by Obama probably wont work - not unless we pump a roughly similar amount into the banking system - and we acknowledge there is too much capacity in the wrong places in some industries.
#104 [February 27th, 2009 at 9:46 am ]
So you have read the leader in this week’s The Economist as well…?
80. Grandstander…. excellent post and very accurate.
116. Such tired spin..so weak..so unconvincing.
119 antifrank - And, even more importantly, does the average voter still believe it?
108.”I don’t think the SNP are underestimating David Cameron, but my point about the Conservatives and more powers was a constitutional one, rather than a political one. And it is to do with the substantial lack of legitimacy that the Tories will have in Scotland with their deep minority of seats and votes here.”
As I said up thread, carry on regardless with this view.
I can see three very clear and distinct weaknesses opening up in the SNP’s current strategy for the GE and their independence referendum. And watching the leadership of the Conservatives North and South of the border, I am becoming ever more confident that they have seen this develop, and are clearly positioning themselves to benefit from it.
“Wasn’t there a plan hatched not so long ago to cut the Scottish Conservatives adrift as they were seen as a hindrance, rather than a help to the party at large?”
That was certainly a view from some back in 2007, just check out ConHom. But I am delighted at the sea change from some advocating this direction, again, check out the very distinct change of tone on ConHom regard this.
125, the SNP can’t bitch about a Tory government.
Westminster governs the whole country, not just Scotland. The South of England aren’t crying because Labour are in power.
Likewise Scotland has its own executive, more than England has. If the SNP try bleating about a probable Tory government they should be mocked and then ignored. And if the Scottish people really want independence they know which way to vote.
Mike, surely the main theme that will emerge is not just that Labour incompetently failed to oversee the structuring of the payments and the gestures needed, but that YET AGAIN this government chooses to smear its way out of trouble, using leaks, spin, the “nudges and winks” that Sir John Major so successfully skewered in the autumn of 2007.
I do not approve of Fred Goodwin’s pension arrangement but I am delighted that he has chosen to give the government a fight over its disgraceful behaviour over this episode. He is clearly taking an attitude of “if I’m going down, I’m taking you with me” and it couldn’t have happened to a more deserving political party.
116. Ermintrude “if anyone has any ideas what to do, it is Gordon”. That would be why Labour attacked the JSA and the bank guarantees and then climbed on board about two months later and did a worse version than the Tory versions eh? Give it a rest will you. Gordon is clueless. He always has been. I know that the clueless people think that Gordon is clever, but the bank bailout plan was really plain vanilla - I could have designed it (or rather copied it from the Swedes and the Japanese).
He has no ideas - he can’t even do a decent frickin infrastructure spend FGS. It’s so utterly pathetic - and so much of it is driven by his gross incompetence and unwillingness to acknowledge his past errors - FFS, if I was in charge, I’d lend the frickin money to the PFI scheme for rebuilding schools - all £3 or 4 billion - rather than try to play an end run round the rules by asking local authority pension funds to lend the money. He’s wasting time by not putting in the money from the Treasury BECAUSE HE DOESNT WANT TO ADMIT PFI DEBT IS UK GOVT DEBT. It’s all party political and a result of his inability to admit an error. To hear people pretend this idiotic moron has ideas makes me want to vomit. I don’t happen to think spending money on schools is going to be growth enhancing, but clearly with projects already approved and a desperate shortfall in work for the construction sector, spending the money would be sensible - and instead, we’re stuck on the funding.
One problem for Labour is that two key ministers dealing with the banking crisis – Vadera and Myner - are ex-bankers. They are seen to be part of the banking establishment, sharing their values and culture. As important, they don’t have well-honed skills to spot a politically sensitive problem: witness, also, Vadera’s gaffe about the green shoots. Add to this problem the fact that they, like Mandelson, are both in the Lords without constituents who can keep them in touch with public feeling, and you being to understand why they are having problems.
Perhaps Labour is beginning to suffer from their shortage of MPs with business experience. Does Brown have to turn to ex-bankers because he has no-one else who could do the job?
Uh oh, Draper accused of theft:
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/02/draperlist-steals-copyrighted-images.html
126. One wonders whether or not Scots will also not tire quickly if the SNP continues with its policy of bigging up petty grievances and picking pointless fights at every possible turn.
Who knows - the SNP themselves (the less swivel-eyed factions at least) may also decide this isn’t a very clever tactic.
126.”125, the SNP can’t bitch about a Tory government.”
That is certainly the first mistaken assumption being made by the SNP right now. Devolution up here is certainly going to make that argument look very petty and mean spirited up here.
Morning all, well put simply, whocould possibly believe a single word spoken by any Minister in this Government?
Gordon Brown- living in cuckoo land hasn’t done anything wrong in 12 years
Alistair Darling- doesn’t know what his ministers are agreeing to
Yvette Cooper- when it comes to economics plain thick
Stephen Timms- Yvette Cooper but even thicker
Lord Midas- takes lots of gold and gives lots away to Gordon’s friends.
Britain’s top bankers Sir Fred Goodwin, Sir James Crosby,Lord Stevenson, Sir Victor Blank etc etc all have one thing in common, they owe much of their status or position to being either Labour supporters or close to James Gordon Brown.
Looking at defence:
Jack straw vetoes access to cabinet minutes which will almost certainly prove Tony Blair lied to the country and the House of commons about WMD
John Hutton has to confess that Britain assisted America in transporting prisoners for torture having flatly denied it in the past in the face of clear evidence.
what will be next?
Although David Cameron is understandably taking a few days off to spend with his family and prepare for his son’s funeral, his team is proving they are quite some team.
George Osborne, often berated on here has had wall to wall coverage this monring on the media and in a polite non-aggressive manner has well and truly stuck the knife between the Darling/Brown ribs.
Ken clark has virtually removed Lord Fop and Vince Cable from our TV screens.
David Davis is there to shame the Government’s appalling civil liberties record
This is just going to get worse and worse for Labour. I reckon each month this continues will add at least 2 more seats to the Tory gains at the GE in May next year.
116. “If anyone has ideas what to do, it is Gordon.” Why on Earth would you think that? What of Gordon’s record or recent actions supports your claim?
90
I worked for Cedric Brown he was my boss, and a very good boss too.
The idea that Cedric Brown turned BG around from an unprofitable basket case is simply absurd. BG was highly profitable, from its conception, and development from the Gas Council back in the 70’s.
The only years that BG didn’t make a profit was during the Heath governments prices and incomes period, when gas prices were artifically held down, during the oil crisis.
p.s.
I couldn’t believe it when CB boosted his salary, in the way he did, it certainly wasn’t justified.
116 Ermintrude - how will better regulation help now? It may stop a similar crisis some time in the future but its stable door stuff. G20 is not particularly important in dealing with this recession. The major decisions have been made, the US has passed its stimulus budget it is in process of dealing with toxic assets, UK has chose its path, EU countries theirs.
There may be an impact on confidence and moves towards protectionism may be stilled (though France will still be pushing to get manufacturing back from Czechoslovakia, US will be making it harder to move work to cheaper countries and pressure will be to buy American). G20 is of marginal importance.
Well done Broxtowe, Nick. Like Augustus (previous Thread) I had forgotten which day it was and was too busy enjoying the fall of Mrs Thatcher.
120
Unfortunately, the US and UK governments seem to think that if they ‘invest’ in insulating homes and painting schools, with a dash of temporary taxcuts, then this will all go away.
Why on Earth would a “small-c conservative” support Labour?
What’s “small-c conservative” about spending at least six billion pounds to forcibly fingerprint every adult in the country?
What’s “small-c conservative” about introducing thousands and thousands of new laws, often draconian, petty, uninforcible and unworkable?
What’s “small-c” conservative about banning demonstrations in front of parliament — then going back on an announcement to revoke the ban?
115
Apart from the period mentioned in 135. The pricing of gas both domestic and commercial was market related, the worse government interference was the Gas Act 81, (see below) when the then Energy Minister imposed a stealth tax, leading to the infamous Gas levy.
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/otmanual/ot05125.htm
133 “I reckon each month this continues will add at least 2 more seats to the Tory gains at the GE in May next year.”
Easterross - that being the case, are you a Labour sub-200 seats man like me? Hills’ 3-1 against them winning 150-199 seats continues to look cracking value to me.
123
Fluffy
No.
But having looked at various comments, it is clear we are in a world storm.. so from that aspect Gordon was correct..
122 Ken
Yes. I do expect GDP in the UK to contract and then slowly recover over decades. And I mean decades. SO a universal cut in living standards.
Not a message politicians will want to give so they will screw it up and we’ll either end up bust or with hyperinflation.. or both eventually.
138. I get fed up of hearing talk of regulation. It’s like talking about fire proofing whilst your house is burning down. It can wait.
We are broke - lets stop spending now and start paying off our debts.
Gordon is deep in “scorched earth” territory - about time we all woke up to this.
141. Well, they are not “small-l liberal” measures, are they?
If “small-c conservatives” and (so-called) liberals choose to tactically give their vote to Labour, that alas is their free choice. But please — at least do yourselves (and us) the favour of not pretending Labour is in any way “small-c conservative”, much less liberal.
104. Madasafish. Grapes of Wrath meets Apocalypse Now!
Monaco anyone?
138. Ted, Ermintrude. I didnt even bother to talk about regulation, but Gordon is utterly clueless here too. It’s a field I know quite a lot about and I’ve been following the academic and regulator level debate.
Gordon will provide no important input here - there is already consensus on some of the actions that need to be taken, some are already being taken at the micro level - transparency in settlement of CDSs. Some things are better done later when we have a solvent banking sector. It’s along list and all about closing the stable door.
Cameron gave a speech back in April last year reflecting the state of consensus in the regulatory world back in January/March. He hit most of the important points (they were obvious by then - not much has changed since that time - we are in refinements rather than major structures). Gordon talked about similar things a little later still. Everyone knows where the weak points are and the issues raised and Gordon Brown doesnt figure in any of the cutting edge debate. Neither is he prominent politically. The Europeans still remember the smug git who came over and lectured them about the superiority of a “light touch” regulatory system and championed hedge funds that were attacking German firms (”locusts” was the German view). Gordon can pretend he wanted to regulate the global financial markets and the shadow financial institutions, but in the real world, the political players see Gordon as an idiot. Britain will have an important role - the centrality of the City makes that inevitable - but we would be far better off being represented by someone who isnt as tainted and as unpopular as Gordon is. None of the other players sees him as being particularly gifted or well informed - because he isnt.
Niall Paterson on Boulton&Co.
What To Do With This Ass?
We are broke - lets stop spending now and start paying off our debts.
Gordon is deep in “scorched earth” territory - about time we all woke up to this
————————-
I begin to despair at the Public’s apparent lack of understanding of the very deep, black hole of debt we are in. Are they putting something in the water? Is that why all Government Offices spend £40 million a year on bottled water? Or is that a contract with a favoured supplier. Lord Sainsbury, perhaps?
125.
But ChristinaD, the point I am making is not about an independence referendum but the gradualist strategy of which I am a fan.
I think the SNP have more than one string to their independence bow.
I suspect that if you haven’t recognised that, the Conservative Party at large hasn’t either.
From Conhome.
By-election results for Thursday 26th February 2009
Rushall - Shelfield, Walsall MBC (Aldridge-Brownhills) Con hold. Con vote 50% -11, Lab 25% +6, LD 11% -1, Greens 4% -3, UKIP 10% from nowhere.
Greasley, Broxtowe DC (Broxtowe) Con hold. Con vote 49% -1, Lab 26% +4, LD 10% no change, BNP 13% -4, UKIP 1% from nowhere.
Honiton St Michaels, East Devon (Tiverton and Honiton) LD gain from Con. Con vote 49% -20, LD 51% from nowhere, Lab did not stand losing 31%.
Court, Epsom and Ewell DC (Epsom and Ewell) Lab gain from LD. Con vote 25% +7, Lab 33% +2, LD 30% -10, Residents13% +1.
Ruxley, Epsom and Ewell DC (Epsom and Ewell) Con gain from Residents. Con vote 51% -12, Lab 7% -3, LD 5% -2, Residents 33% -10, UKIP 4% from nowhere
145. It’s all that bureaucratic minds can comprehend, I fear.
154. Broxtowe eh ?
Honiton tactic looks interesting for Labour - stuff the Cons by not standing.
156
Something that Labour should consider in many parts of the S and SW, including GE’s.
After Iain Martin’s questions about Robert Peston’s role as a conduit of Treasury spin the Daily Mail asks “Is BBC reporter Robert Peston a government stooge?”
is he?
157. I’d suggest they do it nationwide in every constituency.
158. Who thinks he isn’t ?
The by-elections overnight are interesting - to a degree. One idly wonders whether as part of his scorched earth policy, Gordon might agree not to field candidates in certain SW seats - the outcome of Honiton suggests it may be a way to keep the Tories from securing a large majority, as Labour votes (as you’d expect) went disproportionately to the LibDems when Labour didn’t stand.
He’d have to extract a price from Clegg - although whether in public would remain to be seen. Perhaps a pledge from Clegg to be harder on the Tories in the GE campaign. Or perhaps that secret pact is already in place??
156 - snap!
157 I’m sure we’ve raised this tactic before and Labour folk ran here screaming “no, no - we have to stand in all seats to stay a national party!” I wonder if they still will…
159
That would produce a LD landslide.
164. Trying to decide whether that would be worse than a 4th Labour term or a hung parliament..
163
Never seen the sense in wasting time and effort in areas that you can’t possibly win. Where ever a main party is a poor third, they should really consider their position.
128.
I wouldn’t count on it. It isn’t about bitching, but pointing out the facts. And don’t be surprised if Scottish Labour join in on the game when they eventually recover after their defeat. After all they have past form at it.
The point of the matter is that the Tories in Scotland are still a contaminated brand - perhaps not as bad as they once were - but a democratic deficit will only serve to define that boundary much further.
165 It would be quite a laugh - you’d have some seriously freaky MP’s!!
165. GoHF. A strong government is important. NOM would be bad.
155. runnymede
You are probably right. We need executive action not legislation, apart from that needed to support the executive action. A new system of regulation for banks and other financial institutions can wait until the current mess is sorted out, indeed it should wait until we have determined the causes. Right now it is a distraction, much like the arguments over Goodwin’s pension.
164
If it was the death of labour, I would be happy with that.
168. I was kind of kidding. I guess if Labour tried this tactic then the LDs and Cons could also selectively pull out in other areas to re-shaft them back - LDs would probably do well.
Voters might be peeved however.
#102 RBS Group • Annual Report and Accounts 2007
The RBS Fund rules allow all members who retire early
at the request of their employer to receive a pension based on
accrued service with no discount applied for early retirement.
So the discretion was wether he be allowed to retire early [and therefore accrue pension rights] or his services simply dispensed with.
O/T, but the dream is getting closer….
161. We are already a long way down that road. Labour candidates in many SW seats (especially the more rural ones) last time around were little more than paper candidates and attracted derisory vote shares. In many of these places, much of the Labour vote has already transferred to the Lib Dems in GEs.
If there were no Labour candidate at all, the results are less clear than you might think. The rump vote is not necessarily a far-left anti-Tory vote, by any means. In some of the SW seats one found parts of this vote transferring to the Tories last time rather than the Lib Dems (in some cases due to issues like hunting).
In addition, withdrawing candidates (even on a unilateral basis) would make it appear that the Lib Dems were in cahoots with Labour which might upset a portion of the existing Lib Dem vote…
The Honiton result is confused by the fact that the Lib Dems didn’t stand last time. If you compare the two results they are:
Previous
Con 69%
Lab 31%
Now
Con 49%
Lib 51%
It would be interesting to see what the result would have been if all parties stood, but this isn’t necessarily a seat that the Tories would have won had they all done so.
The main conclusion we can draw is that there are a lot of people there who would vote Tory rather than Labour but who will vote Lim Dem. I don’t think that surprises anyone in the South West.
NB. I don’t have any specific details about the area itself and am just concluding from looking at this result.
160 - Not me. I also think would be an improvement if they did his reports the same way they used to do interviews with Gerry Adams, by having an actor dub his words.
While there are many constituencies where one of the three main parties (4 in Wales & Scotland) is a distant 3rd or 4th, by not standing in a GE the party gives the impression that it has abandoned the area entirely. There will always be wards where that party does or can win in local elections, and so having a constituency wide presence is important from that perspective. Also, for prospective MPs, getting selected as the candidate in a no-hoper constituency this time around can be a stepping stone to a marginal or even a safe seat 4 years down the line.
172
I was kind of kidding. I guess if Labour tried this tactic then the LDs and Cons could also selectively pull out in other areas to re-shaft them back - LDs would probably do well.
Whats wrong with that? As for the voters being peeved, politicians peeve voters all the time.
176
Strangely enough, Honiton (according to the census) is my tribal home land.
Many Labour voters in the S and SW have switched to the Libdems over the years. The only Labour voters left are the real hardcore or elderly who just can’t make the change.
179. I suspect Labour cannot afford to put up candidates in all seats in the local elections in June anyway.
153.”I think the SNP have more than one string to their independence bow.
I suspect that if you haven’t recognised that, the Conservative Party at large hasn’t either.”
Groans out loud. You mean that I am so dumb that I totally missed the SNP attempts at outmanoeuvring the Unionist parties in a two pronged strategy that aims to leave them in a win win position over independence whether through major constitutional changes via the front or the back door?
I suspect that its you and many others in the SNP who have failed to recognised that Annabel Goldie has been playing a blinder since the campaign stages of the Scottish elections in 2007. The Scottish Conservatives took a very clear stance on both the right of a *minority* SNP administration to govern in Holyrood, and whilst remaining totally committed to the Union. And that verbal commitment during the campaign has been consistently backed up by their actions throughout the last two years.
Good luck spinning the line that the Tories have no mandate to govern the *UK* whilst remaining in the minority after a GE while we enjoy devolution up here. I think the Tories are making sure their foxes are well clear of the SNP hounds before that GE right now. Could we see Salmond and the SNP morphing into a Scottish equivalent of Brown and Labour if the Tories are elected in the hope of making life difficult for the Tories political, and despite Cameron’s clear commitment to working with them?
I have no doubt that the SNP have more than one string to their independence bow, but I think they are in danger of turning into a one trick pony. And their biggest mistake is the hope that the Unionist parties are just too plain dumb to fight their corner. Are you hoping that while all this political horse trading on more powers goes on, that the public won’t see the SNP trying to sneak independence in through the back door if they don’t win it through the front?
I will leave someone else to pontificate over the mess that the Scottish Labour party and their colleagues the Libdems have got themselves into on these issues in recent years up here.
167.”The point of the matter is that the Tories in Scotland are still a contaminated brand - perhaps not as bad as they once were - but a democratic deficit will only serve to define that boundary much further.”
Priceless - Err, what happens if the Conservatives poll about 20-25% in a GE in Scotland where there is a four party system in place?
180
I’m sure thats correct, so don’t! Use your time effort and money, where you can win, don’t bother with the rest.
Winning in the FPTP system is all about seats, not overall votes.
What’s funny is how incompetent this lot really are. They make new records every day. After spending weeks stupidly whipping up public anger against bankers, to avoid there own culpability, the government has found themselves in the position of secretly defending bankers benefits and then having to do a massive public U-turn.
More on Alan Sugar and his LM bid?
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23654514-details/Sir+Alan+Sugar+is+asked+for+run+for+Mayor/article.do
There is a big difference between not standing candidates in local council by-elections and the general election.
It isn’t unusual for parties to miss elections like the one in Honiton (finding candidates is probably not easy), but it says nothing about what they will do in the General Election.
165 TGoHF
A Lib/Dem landslide?
All those fresh idealistic MPs?
Imagine NuLabour raised to another level
For those LibDems on here today, I was at a dinner with William Hague last night and he was empassioned about ensuring there is an enquiry into the Iraq war. He has already instructed civil servants in this pre election briefings that he wants them ready to annnounce it within a few short days - if the Tories win.
Yes. This is a clear attempt to encourage a bit of tactical voting, but it’s also completely true.
Guardian readers giving Jack Straw and Labour the kicking they deserve:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/27/freedom-of-information-straw
Looking back at last night’s poll, I am slightly dissappointed but also struck by how quickly a poll can be overtaken by events.
Time was not so very long ago, HM Treasury was a Rolls Royce of a department – with all the top brains, hand-picked for an effortless ascent to the very peaks of the mandarinate, with Ks reserved for the very best. However, recent events have established that rather than a top-of-the-range purring RR Phantom, that department turns out to be something of a Trabant - only not so reliable or roadworthy. Assuming that Lord Myners signed off Sir Fred’s exit package, the responsibility for the fiasco is his. If senior officials did not brief him on the landmine contained therein, then the hunt should be on for the guilty. Either way, tin lids all round. Either way, for this level of incompetence, someone should walk. After an almost daily catalogue of recent disasters, the Treasury must be a fairly soul-destroying place to work these days. Go on Gorgon, throw another bankster off the sledge to keep the wolves at bay. You know you want to.
180. Yes I think there could be some embarassing holes in the Labour slate for the CC elections - this trend is already well established…
Bit more of this Boris, and Sugar could be saying, ‘Your Fired’
Mayor accused of not having faith in public transport after £1,000 taxi bill
Danny Brierley
27.02.09 BORIS Johnson has been branded a “wimp” and accused of lacking faith in his own public transport system after spending £1,000 of taxpayers’ money on taxis after a public meeting.
The meeting - about Heathrow expansion in Hillingdon - was described as an environmental fight-back against a proposed third runway at the airport. Prior to the event last month, the Mayor said the lives of millions of Londoners would be blighted by pollution if the runway was built.
But, in a move that has angered his political opponents, a fleet of more than a dozens cabs was ordered to take Mr Johnson and several others home after the meeting ended about 9pm.
The Mayor’s office could not say how many people were given a free ride home and refused to reveal their identities. Earlier this year, after it was claimed there were plans to provide Mr Johnson with an official car, his office said: “He cycles everywhere he possibly can, and if he cannot he happily uses public transport, or very occasionally a taxi.”
Susan Kramer, a Liberal Democrat MP whose constituency is one of those that would be most affected by a third Heathrow runway, was not invited to the meeting but said: “Londoners will no doubt be pleased to be footing the bill for the Mayor’s lack of faith in the safety of his own public transport system… what a bunch of wimp
185 coldstone-Very interesting.If Sugar stood as official Labour and Livingstone as an Independent that would equate to an easy BJ victory.
I can’t offhand think of two more polarising cvandidates than Sugar and Livingstone.
193. Sugar is an overrated tw*t. Lets see what his property portfolio looks like by the end of this year.
If he stands as a Labour stooge after the hammering they will get next June he will hose his last remaining drops of credibility up the wall and will signal the end his tv show.
Con gain the Apprentice.
#185 [ February 27th, 2009 at 11:05 am ] Frying-pan, fire…!
Despised by Spurs fans, hated by Gooners. As for the opinion of the rest of us - not fit for publication. Obviously the public-funded adverts and BBC appearances won’t rescue him from poverty, the nEU-Labour turd!
We want BoJo! [regardless of Welshman's angst]
Anybody want to buy an Alan Sugar internet phone?
197, competing for the title?
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-%26-entertainment/first-apprentice-to-sell-an-emailer-wins%2c-says-sugar-200806051002/
Morning all,
Anthony Wells has posted 2 threads on the Yougov Poll (including the detail of the poll). The latest is here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1947
Poll Summary:
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/DT-toplines_FEB.pdf
http://www.yougov.co.uk/archives/pdf/DT-results_FEB.pdf
It does indeed show a significant rise in the others figure and if believed the BNP are on the same share the SNP/PC
193
Will Sugar give up the Rolls Royce?
195 Can’t agree, Harry.
He’s from my neck of the woods and I have known plenty of people who worked with and for him. I am struck by the number that stay loyal to him over many, many years. That speaks for itself.
What’s your angle?
199. Very ugly reading for Miliband, Mandy and Smith !
From Guido’s place
Joe Bass said…
Prezza, B-Liar, Jonah, Mad-lesson, Harlot, Balls-up and all et al …..a seriously dodgy set of self servers.
How can the unprovoked decision to go to war with other peoples children be forgiven? Why was the Kelly incident not properly investigated? Criminally incompetent borrowing and hiding behind PFI schemes. The political classes are basically the same as the bankers, they have lost sight of reality and are of the mind that you can get something for nothing.
So why should the shower of waste in charge of U.k. Plc. worry about ‘poor’ Sir Freds pension it is but a drop in the ocean of printed money. How about docking Jonah’s pension rights for his systematic involvement in the mess? Why is B-Liar not on a charge? Leave ‘poor’ Sir Fred alone - and put the spotlight back on the people who set up the structure of decay.
February 27, 2009 10:15 AM
‘Nuff said…!
Apart from being an embarrassment to the British industry by producing notoriously naff electronic goods in the 1980s, what has Alan Sugar actually done?
re 161 you can rest assured that if Gordon thinks it’ll screw the Tories by not running candidates, despite the fact that it’ll screw the local party for years to come, then it will be being considered. The man only cares for doing down the Tories, not his own party or even the running of the country.
‘If David Cameron was not, sadly, otherwise engaged he would have an extra spring in his step. What a great counter to the perhaps disappointing YouGov poll overnight discussed on the previous thread.
George will know what to do.
I hope David Cameron’s absence encourages more of the Tory front bench onto our screens.
And before the usual culprits make their jaded and all too obvious comments - just take a look at the Labour front bench - man for man [and woman] the latest poll shows the Tory front bench on prefered - including Grayling, even though he has only just got his job.
Wonder what Smith has done to upset folks!
Why don’t we just have a good old bipartisan pop at Goodwin. This is his problem and he can sort it out:
http://thestupidtimes.blogspot.com/2009/02/ex-rbs-chief-goodwin-sends-government.html
Guido firing on all cylinders - Prescott’s Pension Hypocrisy
Ermintrude, your flabby and defensive thesis that it’s not Labour’s fault cause “the recession is global” ignores one central factor.
As far as I know, Britain’s Labour government, and our dear prime minister Gordon Brown, were the only government in the world to promise an end to “boom and bust”. Even Kim Jong Il, the certifiably insane leader of North Korea, didn’t claim to have abolished the economic cycle.
But Gordon Brown did.
It’s these vain and facile boasts by Brown and his chums - boasts made many times, I might add - that are now coming home to roost. For ten years Labour have banged on about how brilliant the chancellor was and how superb was their economic stewardship and how all of Britain’s growth was basically down to Gordon being a superhero.
Having grabbed all the glory for the rickety wooden house they built, they must take all the blame as it burns down to the ground.
re 191 surely the best of the “mandarinate” could be confidently excepting a “G” rather than a “K”?
201. I personally don’t like him since he became a shill for Gordon Brown. For the life of me I cannot see why he thinks Brown has done a good job - to me that shows his judgement is either flawed or compromised.
Can’t see his attitude to women going down to well in PC city hall either.
@199 (jsfl)
Very interesting, thanks.
The individual Labour/Tory matchups are intriguing. The Osborne +5 favourability compared to Darling must be quite worrying when compared to Clarke or Hague. In a twisted way, Osborne shares many character traits with Gordon Brown in the Tony Blair era.
He is more deeply partisan than his leader; less photogenic; comes across as slightly condescending, etc.
I suspect that like Gordon Brown (in the mirage of the good years) he will have to slowly build a reputation for fiscal competence, rather than have it bestowed on him.
There is a danger for the LibDems if they are seen as being the life boat for this Govt.
I can see the LibDems being quite happy for Labour to pull out at a local level where it might go unnoticed- but would they want this to be something the Tories could throw at them at a GE?
They might save some seats with it but at the risk of many others.
And Brown would do it in whatever way he saw fit - with or without Clegg. And he could effectively tie the LibDems ‘equidistant’ hands at a GE if he did.
O/T Is the Euro Donald Ducked ?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/02/26/are_germans_giving_up_on_the_euro
Daily Mail - Is BBC reporter Robert Peston a government stooge?
I have to admit I used to like Alan Sugar.
But then I started to feel he was a bit of a bully.
And then he went on to choose some duffers on the show.
Made me think he was a bit of an egotist who shouted at people and wasn’t all he was cracked up to be.
Now what would he have in common with Gordon? [who he slagged off for his other mate - our Tony]
Where is Skywalker…?
[And has the worm turned...? Knuts!!!
]
With respect to not standing when in third, there is a further problem due to the fact that people do move about the country a fair bit. So a Labour-wavering voter in the South West might end up moving to a Midlands Con-Lab marginal, and if they’ve only ever been given the choice of Lib Dem or Conservative, they might not take Labour that seriously.
So over the medium-term I’d expect it to erode the vote of the party that did that, in return for a short-term tactical benefit. I’m surprised Labour haven’t done it already…
215. Sugar is fine as boss of a company, not so sure he would work as Mayor. do we really need that sneer in politics? Still him as Mayor and Cameron as PM could create an entertaining dynamic!
214 Released to cover the next bailout and RBS’s losses?
Humm.
And how is that working out for them?
I can see the logic and I can believe it of them, but when all you can do is cover damaging sh*t with more damaging sh*t - either Mandy has lost his touch or you’ve run out of options.
#217 [ February 27th, 2009 at 11:43 am ]
So a Labour-wavering voter in the South West might end up moving to a Midlands Con-Lab marginal, and if they’ve only ever been given the choice of Lib Dem or Conservative, they might not take Labour that seriously.
Timothy (likes zebras)
Did not Dame Shirley Porter get in trouble with a similar strategy? Be careful what you say: “Das Staat ist immmer!” [Or should that be "Der Staat immer ist!" : I gave up on Duetsche!]
Oh the irony.
10.15am Louise Bagshawe on CentreRight: Sir Fred chaired the Low Pay Commission
Don’t give up on ‘Duetsche’(sic) yet,Fluffy Thoughts.
It could be you’re a natural.
Just been you gov’d, lots of questions on the economy and Afghanistan,who do you trust etc inc intention to vote. I did my duty.
Incidentally You Gov have it right, there is an option of 0 for the question of trust in Brown and other trust questions, most surveys are 1-10
Labour: “L’Etat, et vous, sont moi.”
O/T URW - any thoughts on the Eng/Windies test ? I was laying the draw yesterday <1.8
219.I agree Sally, but it was the sheer blizzard of bad news from the government over the last 24 hours that I found incredible.
How many of those individual statements or announcements would have been a stand alone headline in a normal news day? Looked like a good day to bury bad government headlines.
Peter Hoskin at the Coffee House Blog - A bonfire of taxpayers’ cash
“And what, exactly, is the point of this mind-blowingly large bank insurance scheme? I haven’t blogged on this so far as it just leaves you numb: as Charles Moore says in his Notebook in this week’s magazine, you just stop reacting. Another £300bn? A £10bn loss from Lloyds/HBOS - and that’s our problem now? Or is it? Whatever, Mr Brown. The taxpayer has endured so much pain that the new blows don’t register. Our nervous system is already in ruins. Billion is the new million. Trillion seems a made-up phrase, although it’s popping up with greater frequency. The next in line is quadrillion, which sounds like some kind of a 1980s boy band. But what is unnerving me is the absence of any scrutiny, or strategy.
No one is keeping tabs on how much taxpayers’ cash is gone forever, how much we can hope to get back, what the paper loss to the taxpayer is so far. UBS has issued a damage report otulining the numbers for their shareholders - see here. Why the hell hasn’t RBS done one? The answer is that its owners, the government, don’t really want people to know what the damage is. Instead of keeping tabs on behalf of the taxpayer, Gordon “two books” Brown has just started a new series of national debt excluding the banks. Purpose: to conceal from the taxpayer what he’s done. He rejects the ONS definition of national debt, but won’t give us a new one. Just his own make-believe set which excludes every penny sent down this vortex of the imploding banking sector. What’s the real story? He won’t say. There are all too few banking experts in the press able to find out. In politics, complexity is the second last refuge of the scoundrel (pension funds are the last - or, in Brown’s case, the first).”
O/T is betfair down ?
@221 (SallyC)
That story isn’t true - it was Lord Myners who chaired the Low Pay Commission. Look at the comments, and search the website of the LPC.
227. Ignore (its not).
221.”Oh the irony.
10.15am Louise Bagshawe on CentreRight: Sir Fred chaired the Low Pay Commission”
Sally, it gets worse. Guido points out that “It is satire that writes itself to know that the overpaid Sir Fred chaired the Low Pay Commission and Lord Myners of Short Selling chaired what was known as the Treasury’s “Myners Review” into the good governance of pensions.”
228.Oops, better tell Guido among others.
228 Fair enough.
[Still ironic though]
Didn’t read the comments I am afraid. I rarely do on Conservativehome - something which the generous of spirit may find it in their hearts to forgive.
I can’t believe bloggers have written something inaccurate without bothering to check the facts. It has shaken my faith in the medium.
[220] - I believe there was a kerfuffle in a Tory council in London attempting to socially engineer a Tory-friendly electorate. That has nothing to do with what I was noting, which was just that people move about the country to follow jobs, often without interference from elected officials. It’s easy to have a view of the electorate that is far too static.
225.GoHF- Yesterday it all looked so easy when from a trader’s POV you could take it as a ‘two result’ match and bounce around the Draw price and the England price.
My feeling now is that the comparative decline of England hasn’t hurt the Draw price because the follow-on is a much less likely option.
Follows-on are very much out of favour these days but after the near miss of the previous Test could have been an option.
So my feeling would be to be WITH the Draw.
Do bear in mind I am almost always a trader rather than a directional bettor.
233. continued. In fairness I do read some posters if I catch their names- Edison Smith and our own ChrisD to name two.
228 gohf-working fine for me.
236. I think the follow on may have been enforced last time if it wasn’t for Fred being knackered and Harmy puking on the outfield.
As a punter I’m laying the draw as I expect more than 3 wickets to fall today (declaration counts as 7) so the match will be significantly further forward towards a result.
As an England fan however I suspect the bowling attack is too light to take 20 wickets.
I’ll probably trade out for a free England win bet.
237.
SallyC, I am as rare a sight there now as the lesser spotted Tory campaigner was in Scotland back in 97. 
But Guido also commented on the Treasury’s “Myners Review” into the good governance of pensions.” That boomerang is going to hurt Brown.
WI…22.0
ENG…2.4
DRW…1.86
Lay prices to 100%.
241. My draw lay average is 1.78 - shall stay in for now.
Based on all local by elections fought this month, the Conservatives have as 12% nationwide lead. Based on the 9 where the three main parties were the only ones to stand, the Tories have a 14% lead with figures breaking down at;
Con 47% Lab 33% Lib-Dem 11%
So interestingly, despire M
James Forsyth at the Coffee House Blog on Good banking needs a bad bank
Based on all local by elections fought this month, the Conservatives have as 12% nationwide lead. Based on the 9 where the three main parties were the only ones to stand, the Tories have a 14% lead with figures breaking down at;
Con 47% Lab 33% Lib-Dem 11%
So interestingly, despite Mark Seniors claim that the Tories are polling under the opinion poll average in these local by elections, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Detail here;
http://www.24dash.com/news/Local_Government/2009-02-27-Gain-for-Labour-in-latest-council-by-elections
Everyone should enter Guido’s caption competition this week
http://www.order-order.com/2009/02/friday-caption-competition_27.html
The politics of the last few days are absolutly toxic for Labour - this Pension thing for Fred Goodwin is obscene. He should be stripped of his Pension retrospectively to the point where he started on wreckless decisions as CEO. Alas i doubt this will be feasible but Labour are too blame! I always thought Labour were redistrubutive but i never realised they taxed the poor to pay the rich!
Labour are uterly incomptent!
Labour Labour Labour - Out Out Out!
[245] - Do your figures take account of the location of the local contests? [And if so, how?]
Otherwise they could be biased by more of them occurring in naturally “Tory” or “Labour” areas, thus either over or under-estimating the Tory lead.
Miss Cooper didn’t like this one bit and her face smarted and blushed like a spanked buttock.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1156681/QUENTIN-LETTS-The-ministers-face-smarted-blushed-like-spanked-buttock.html
She was only obaying orders from her furer!
245. ‘despite Mark Seniors claim….’
Why ‘despite’ ?
Mind you the RBS Pension opens another Can of Worms - WHat about Gordon Brown’s Pension? Surely he should have to give that up as Brown has done what Goodwin did to RBS to an entire Country!
245 - The detail is rather important though isn’t it as the “share” is wholly dependent on the characteristics of the rather small number of wards contested (9 contested by all three parties in the month).
Of the five this week we have:
Broxtowe - Tory hold but with a 2.5% swing to Labour since 2007.
East Devon - Lib Dem gain from Tory (swing not shown as rather oddly Labour didn’t contest this time and the Lib Dems didn’t in 2007).
Epsom (1) - Labour gain with a 6.1% swing against the Lib Dems since 2007.
Epsom (2) - Tory gain from Residents with a 7.4% swing from Labour since 2007 (though hard to judge as it’s a gain from Residents).
Walsall - Tory hold but with a 8.4% swing to Labour since 2008.
Mixed messages but seem to give some support to Mark Senior’s theory?
Is Boris losing the ES?
http://www.libdemvoice.org/boris-johnson-veronica-wadley-11803.html
251.Good point Martin.
253.I don’t think he ever had Libdemvoice.
BBC just breaking the news that Benefit errors ‘can be recouped’
How is that going to play on top of everything else that has happened in the last few days?
252. I’ll repeat what I said last night. Having spent 4 months on by elections, it’s clear to me that it’s all about your core vote. I came across plenty of people who want Brown out but just couldn’t be bothered to vote for a Councillor with no effective powers. Results are interesting but have limited use when predicting a general election.
Re the Honiton by-election whatever way you spin it is a huge win for us.
Someone was talking idly about us mopping up the anti-Tory vote. Did you see the result last time, or for that matter the time before… or indeed before that.
Honiton has never elected a LibDem to any principal council - right through the Major/Hague etc year. To do it under present circumstances is a huge tribute to the LibDem candidate.
256 - I trust that on the back of this result you are going back to your constituency and preparing for Government.
254. Another chance for the Govt to achieve bad PR by pursuing people who probably haven’t got any money.
254
Boris Johnson and the Evening Standard: it’s amazing what a change of editor can do
Written by Mark Pack on 27th February 2009 – 8:55 am
I’ve been doing a bit of number crunching. In the three weeks before the departure of editor Veronica Wadley from the Evening Standard the paper’s stories about Boris Johnson broke down as 61% positive, 27% neutral and 12% negative.
And in the three weeks after her departure? They were 43% positive (down 18%), 22% neutral (down 5%) and 35% negative (up 23%).
Isn’t it amazing what a change of editor can do?
Libdem voice was just the vehicle, errr not a dozen black cabs though!
Afternoon,jon.You have been very much missed.I saw you posted yesterday evening.
LIB DEMS now 45-46 with the remaining Spreads.What are your feelings ?
Further signs that the Libdems are in trouble in Scotland.
Lib Dem MSP calls for referendum
My council recently saw three councillors break away from their Libdem group. Its not that long ago that the Scottish Libdems elected Tavish Scott as their new leader.
Off topic: I’ve just been reading about the new Tory/UUP alliance: ‘Ulster Conservatives and Unionists - New Force’ Sounds a bit paramilitary to me, plus the initials of UCU-NF aren’t ideal.
253 - no
258.And while seemingly unable to stop the bonus culture etc in the banks, we the taxpayer are bailing out.
257 Not just yet (in any case I have no need to return as I’m already here) I am not one to get cocky.
I have every respect for the strength of my opponents which is why I am so pleased we managed to beat them. I merely point out that this is by any standards a remarkable win (can you find a bigger crude local swing anywhere recently between two major parties?) and will kill the “no point in voting as the Tories always win around here” mentality off pretty quickly.
256. Clearly it was a good result but what are you expecting us to say. This proves the Tories are finished and Nick Clegg will soon be striding into Downing Street. For the Tory vote to drop like that, I would suggest that it was an appalling failure of the Tory GOTV campaign against a very effective Lib Dem campaign.
This looks serious.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/02/audit-commission-chief-warns-of.html#links
256 - “Did you see the result last time, or for that matter the time before… or indeed before that.”
No, and I was planning on looking for them later. Do you have them to hand?
259.I know its Friday, but I thought that sitting crunching those numbers was really sad, and then to blog about it….
263. Mirthios, did you know Louise Bagshawe PPC has misqouted you on Conhome?
Check her latest piece on Centre Right and check her posts on thread as well.
Sir Fred = Toffs
Whichever party is associated with Toffs will lose a particle of popularity. Some things have no effect on the standing of the political parties.
Did any of you read the ‘longest suicide note’ in political history? Its amazing how so many of the policies are now in place and supported by all parties. And still, there were no proposals to nationalise the banks. They pobably lost the election because they refused to nationalise the banks and clean them up. Amazing how the UK has moved to the left through Hilda’s years and those since.
Thought last night’s play ‘Hilda’ was magnificent. It seemed so truthful; particularly the contemptible way she treated Lawson and Howe. Some of her ranting had a Hitleresque quality.
Coldstone -don’t blame the editor. Boris is having to do things and amazingly is upsetting people in the process. It is government that is the problem Labour Conservative doesn’t matter - that is why turnout is so low.
263
Sorry your opinions can’t be relied on, your getting the blame for misleading the country’s greatest living novelist, (eat your heart out seant) Bagshaw.
262 Sandy
They should obviously have plumped for Ulster Conservatives and Unionsts New Times. I wont bother with the initials, obviously.
260 Thanks URW Must admit I kind of lost interest since Spreadfair died. I trade long term but like other people to cross my spreads. Maybe if the others get tighter closer to the election I will go back in.
As you probably guessed I shorted LD seats when we were flailing around in the early part of this parliament.
(I bet with my head not my heart and would love to be proved wrong in any case). I am now the other way.
Despite some concern over our EU referendum activities I now see we are in decent shape and destined to do rather better against the Tories than a lot of people have predicted.
267. Of course it is.
Forgive me if this has been said already (I have not had time to read the entire thread) but it would be even more entertaining if Sir Fred was to offer to make a large donation to either the Labour Party or the SNP.
248. They aren’t “my” figures. Just analysis from that particular web-site.
271
From the ‘83 manifesto.
Finance for industry
It is essential that industry has the finance it needs to support our plans for increased investment. Our proposals are set out in full in our Conference statement, The Financial Institutions. We will:
Establish a National Investment Bank to put new resources from private institutions and from the government - including North Sea oil revenues - on a large scale into our industrial priorities. The bank will attract and channel savings, by agreement, in a way that guarantees these savings and improves the quality of investment in the UK.
Exercise, through the Bank of England, much closer direct control over bank lending. Agreed development plans will be concluded with the banks and other financial institutions.
Create a public bank operating through post offices, by merging the National Girobank, National Savings Bank and the Paymaster General’s Office.
Set up a Securities Commission to regulate the institutions and markets of the City, including Lloyds, within a clear statutory framework.
Introduce a new Pension Schemes Act to strengthen members’ rights in occupational pension schemes, clarify the role of trustees, and give members a right to equal representation, through their trade unions, on controlling bodies of the schemes.
Set up a tripartite investment monitoring agency to advise trustees and encourage improvements in investment practices and strategies.
Seemed pretty good to me at the time, bet the present government wished it had done something similar.
Brown digging a hole, he should be distancing himself and hanging Myners out to dry:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7912651.stm
Remove Gordon Brown’s Pension!
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/
Boris Johnson’s smater brother Mitchell is currently polling well !
The loss of Spreadfair was tragic,jon.
jsfl - 270 - at 12:42 pm - Mirthios, did you know Louise Bagshawe PPC has misqouted you on Conhome?
Not until you mentioned it - but to have my innocent little post reproduced in its entirety by William Blake’s Ghost is a bit of a compliment really.
On the local by-elections, I wonder whether anyone’s tried transferring them into local/regional seats at a GE.
We have national polls which are too national, and local by-elections which are too local (and the politicshome poll!). Is there not room to try and fuse them.
Essentially if there’s a seat which is on UNS a close contest then use any local by-elections to try and gain a better idea of the local situation. As much how motivated and organised the local parties are as anything.
283. Indeed perhaps your post was considerably superior to that of the PPC?
271. Hitler invoked; ergo argument lost.
Internet Rule 101.
286 CR-Start a thread like “My mum made the best pancakes” and you might get to 200 without a mention of the corporal.
280. I suspect Brown knows that Myners could destroy him if he sacks him.
Have the Ulster Unionsts just shot themselves in the foot with a mad new name?
All they had to do was get a simple name and instead they have New Force. If history is anything to go by here the SDLP in response will become SDLP Reaction Force and the DUP Mega Force…Sinn Fein are still examining the possibility of being Force 10 from Navarone, the Guns of Navarone being inappropriate these days…the Greens will become Garden Force…
Watch it quietly dropped in time.
Honiton, of course, failed to elect Cochrane and elected the Tory instead!
289 ROFLMAO - excellent!
289. Have this “new” party got a chance of a seat - any recent NI only polls ?
289.Classic Yokel.
It is a hell of a mouthful, and anything longer than your pin number is going to be forgotten by most people.
10:42 Coldstone
And who do you think a proportion, perhaps a large one, of the disenfranchised voters will go to? One of the “main” parties they have previously refused to support?
Or could they bolster a party that hasn’t stood there before?
293. They could form a youth branch - rather than CFUK it could be CFTP.
133. You do not get it , people here see here as the Government doing their job and standing up for Scotland not picking fights. Unlike previously where Labour administration did what it was told , the SNP are looking after Scotland’s interests rather than just taking what Westminster say is good for them. Real people outside Labour like it.
134. Christina, you are deluded, we had this before with Conservatives trampling all over Scotland, it will be a bit more difficult this time as we now have an SNP administration that will not roll over and do as its told, people like the SNP standing up for Scotland’s interests.
Is BBC reporter Robert Peston a government stooge?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1156848/Is-BBC-reporter-Robert-Peston-government-stooge.html
Fluffy: if we want to read anonymous blokes ranting on Guido’s blog, we can read Guido. His blog and especially the comments are an acquired taste and shouldn’t be inflicted on us here.
Anthony Wells pointed out recently that by-elections tend to overstate the Tories and understate Labour (and massively overstate the LibDems), so a 12% Tory lead in local polls is nothing special, especuially as they’ve been underperforming compared with past results for a while now. AW also points out, though, that local polls seem hard to link to subsequent GE results. It’s just a mild warning that positive enthusiasm to vote Tory in large numbers at every opportunity doesn’t seem to have happened yet.