Today’s YouGov daily poll is the first chance to gauge opinion since George Osborne’s speech yesterday, characterised in the media as something of a gamble: normally oppositions seeking election do not make speeches setting out their instruments of torture.
To be honest, even it this did damage the Conservatives, I doubt we’d see it yet. I’d expect any effect on the polls at the moment to be a positive one from them getting some nice coverage and Osborne getting a chance to look capable and “Chancellor-like”. Any downside would be the future attacks that could be made on the policies.
Anyway, the topline figures are CON 43%(+2), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1) – so a Conservative increase, up to their highest level since the conference season began (and indeed their highest score from YouGov since May). Their lead over Labour has increased less, since they too are up as the Lib Dems and others decline.
The others in today’s poll are at only 11%, which I believe is the lowest total for them from YouGov since April when the expenses scandal broke. There was always a good chance that the conference season – three weeks of solid publicity for the main parties – would help knock down that post-European election support for others, though it’s far too early to conclude that yet.
On other questions, YouGov asked about two of the big policy announcements in recent days. 63% of people supported a freeze in public sector pay, with 23% opposed (sadly we don’t have a break there by public or private sector employment). On bringing forward the increase in retirement age opinion was far more split: 44% supported it, 44% opposed it.
The age break here looked somewhat surprising to me at first sight – over 55s were most likely to support it! Of course having thought about it, it will affect only people under 58, so for the vast majority of respondents in the 55 and over age bracket it won’t be an issue, they are already retired or will be before the change takes affect. It will affect more people in the 35 to 54 bracket, and these were indeed the most opposed to the measure.
40% of respondents thought that David Cameron had changed the Conservative party for the better since becoming Tory leader, 15% thought he had changed it for the worse (these appear to be largely Labour voters, not grumpy Tories). The figures for Gordon Brown were, unsurprisingly, in the opposite direction – 6% think Labour have got better under his leadership, 59% worse.
Tomorrow’s figures should be out early at noon, before Cameron’s conference speech.
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