22 Responses to “Seats by region”

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1. Neil

   Can anyone out there (perhaps Will, or Oldnat, or Cllr Peter) enlighten me as to where the Glorious Leader, Comrade Salmond expects the 20 SNP seats to come from at the next election?

   The SNP currently hold 7 (including Glasgow East which they are very likely to lose), and I would say that 15 seats would be an absolute dream night for them, 12 a good night, and 10 probably the most realistic figure. I would be interested to see a list of the 20 seats Wee Eck expects to have. I will shortly post a list of SNP targets ranked by swing required.

   September 29th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
2. Will Patterson

   Not being in receipt of any sort fo strategy memo that would detail that, I’d guess that it would the list would be based loosely on the 21 Holyrood Constituencies won in 2007. IIRC, the target of 20 came at the 2008 Spring Conference, so that puts it before the Glasgow East (when it would have looked too cautious) and Glenrothes (when it would have looked too ambitious) By-Elections…

   October 3rd, 2009 at 4:56 pm
3. NoOffenceAlan

   I don’t think there’s a Westminster seat in Glasgow that matches the Holyrood Glasgow Govan seat (held by Nicola Sturgeon) so that’s 1 of the 21 less for a starter.

   October 3rd, 2009 at 10:49 pm
4. Andrea

   “I don’t think there’s a Westminster seat in Glasgow that matches the Holyrood Glasgow Govan seat (held by Nicola Sturgeon”

   yes, Holyrood’s Govan is divided between Glasgow Central (34%), Glasgow South (34%) and Glasgow South West (32%) at Westminster level.

   FWIW, after Euro elections Glasgow council released figures at constituency level and SNP was ahead in Glasgow South and Glasgow North

   October 4th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
5. Neil

   So Andrea makes NOA’s point for him. Glasgow Govan is split pretty much equally between 3 Westminster constituencies. Also, 21/72 constituencies at the Scottish parliament does not equate to 20/59 in Westminster, even if there were equivalent seats for all of them.

   Furthermore, the SNP will always do better in SP elections than GEs for the simple reason that everyone knows they are an irrelevance in Westminster – a fact I have spoken to many times.

   Added to that the fact that 2007 was a high point for the SNP in terms of popularity, and I think the 20 target is mere fantasy.

   October 5th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
6. Neil

   Apologies, there are of course 73 constituencies for the Scottish Parliament, not 72. Not that it makes much difference, but it only emphasises my point. 21/73=28.7% of SP constituencies won by the SNP. 20/59=33.9% of Westminster constituencies Alex Salmond thinks he will win.

   If the SNP were to win the same %age of seats in 2010 as they did in 2007 (which they wont) they would win 59/73*21 = 17 seats (rounded up).

   I stick to my prediction that the SNP will win 10-12 seats. I gather Ladbrokes give good odds on this, if I was a betting man I would hit it, but I’m not.

   October 5th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
7. NoOffenceAlan

   Also: Angus, North Tayside, Perth and Ochil are 4 Holyrood SNP-held seats which correspond to only 3 at Westminster – Angus, Perth & North Perthshire, Ochil & South Perthshire.

   October 5th, 2009 at 10:27 pm

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