Wales Euros
Wales currently returns 4 members of the European Parliament.
In 2004 the region returned 2 Labour MEPs, 1 Conservative MEP and 1 Plaid Cymru MEP. For the Liberal Democrats or UKIP to gain an MEP here they would need to get at least 50% of the first placed party’s vote.
Sitting MEPs and 2004 Results
| 1. | Glenys Kinnock (Labour) | 297,810 (32.1%) | (Will stand down at next election) | |
| 2. | Jonathan Evans (Conservative) | 177,771 (19.1%) | (Will stand down at next election) | |
| 3. | Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) | 159,888 (17.2%) | ||
| 4. | Eluned Morgan (Labour) | (148,905) | (Will stand down at next election) | |
| -. | UKIP | 96,677 (10.4%) | ||
| -. | Liberal Democrat | 96,116 (10.3%) | ||
| -. | Green | 32,761 (3.6%) | ||
| -. | BNP | 27,135 (3.0%) | ||
| -. | Foward Wales | 17,280 (1.9%) | ||
| -. | Christian Democrat | 6,821 (0.7%) | ||
| -. | Respect | 5,427 (0.6%) |
2009 Candidates
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. | |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
| 1. | |
| 2. | |
| 3. | |
| 4. |
Cheers Pete. I posted this on the Aberconwy thread just a bit ago.
The Conwy Valley has only 6000 odd electors, only 2-3000 of whom probably voted last Thursday. Of those, even if Plaid had won 50% of votes, (not likely), that would only have been 1000-1,500.
The Bangor area has far more voters, around 18,000 and so if even a lower percentage of people voted Plaid in that area the actual number would have been higher. Couple this with the Tory voters from MNC (probably around a third to a half of those cast for them) and then I think (evidently very unscientifically) that the Tories would have won.
I think much of the ‘natural’ Plaid vote traditionally backed Labour and the Lib Dems but now that Plaid have shown they can win Conwy they have begun to vote more for them and this is a large part of Plaid’s advance in Conwy.
Many of Matt’s 18,000 voters are in fact students who rarely vote.
In the run up to the assembly elections the Tories claimed the Conwy valley was good for them etc yet Plaid pulled well over 50% of the vote in that area on a turnout of approx 55%…
Still the result in Conwy removes any doubt that the new Aberconwy will be a Plaid/Tory battle….
Matt – a little controversial I know but I reckon the tory candidates in Aberconwy might be a bit too Welsh for your voters? Discuss !!
Cymrumark, many of them are not students. As you say few vote and a great deal don’t put themselves on the register at uni. The population of Bangor (excluding students) is around 14,000 and including outlying areas this brings it to around 18,000.
I don’t think a candidate being ‘too Welsh’ would be a bar to people voting for them. I’m sure the average voter couldn’t give a toss if honest. Sir Wyn was very Welsh and was always voted in round Conwy for 27 years and I doubt it was Bangor that elected him.
There used to be a strong Conservative vote in Bangor although I doubt they won the town over all. The Aberconwy area is if anything less Conservative than it used to be. The number of committed vote conservative at every election is less than it was. Anyway Aberconwy looks set to be a much closer seat than many would have predicted.
I really doubt the Conservatives ever came even remotely close to winning Bangor and there has never been anything even approaching a ’strong’ Conservative vote there.
Have you ever been to Bangor? Going back in time before the right-to-buy scheme Bangor was heavily dominated by council housing. To this extent, even today across the town nearly 40% of all properties are rented from public authories.
Going back to when you said there may have been a strong Tory vote here the town would doubtless have had upwards of 60% of all properties being council-owned. Combine this with a similarly large Welsh-speaking population and (although I admit it’s a generalisation). I think we can safely say any Tory voting was fairly low and probably never went beyond the mid to high 20s at any point and would have been usually far less.
Matt I know Bangor quite well as I used to work there.. Somebody who worked on the Roger Robertscampaigns in the 80’s told me the Tories would poll 25-30% in Bangor.
In those days there was still something of a Tory vote amongst older, wealthier Welsh speakers and a thiving samm business community. Sir Wyn pullled a personal vote as well there being a habit in this part of Wales to support “the member”.
The decline of the Tory vote generally in Conwy can partly be explained by it vanishing in Bangor. There is still a rump Torty vote.
In the end both here and on the Aberconwy site I am able to quote actually election results, the assembly, the local electiopns and now European election all of which show Plaid doing well and the Tories underperforming. The Tories are reduced to excuses and bizarre claims as to why
none of the other elections matter.
Certainly, Matt, going back even earlier to the late 60s when I was a student in Bangor, there was absolutely a strong Tory vote – this was in the days before the Plaid vote really took off in Welsh speaking parts of North Wales. Certainly your Council housing feature you mention was very much so then. There was also – in pre – Roger Roberts days – a core North Walian Liberal vote, as I found when canvassing! I have a feeling that the Plaid, when it took off, actually took quite a lot of the old Tory vote as well as what we might think of as “left of centre” votes from Libs and Labour. But as a student I most certainly didn’t regard Bangor as “Labour” through and through as you seem to be describing!
The Bangor Menai Ward (covers many of the student votlyers) still elects two Lib Dem county councillors. At the strongest Lib Dem campaigns there is little doubt that the voters polling in Cae Top School were overwhelming anti-Tory andf pro Lib/Lab. The Plaid students were strong in the ward where the Welsh speaking Hall of residence was located.
Tim, In my post I did not mention Labour at all if you look. All I said was that Bangor was very definitely anti-Conservative in its voting whether that would have been Liberal, Labour or Plaid Cymru.
I also said that the Tories would never have won beyond the high 20s and usually won less and if a member of the Tory campaign said that they had c. 25% then this fits too.