Stourbridge
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18564 (42%)
Conservative: 17279 (39.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7063 (16%)
Other: 1296 (2.9%)
Majority: 1285 (2.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16682 (40%)
Labour: 17089 (41%)
Liberal Democrat: 6850 (16.4%)
UKIP: 1087 (2.6%)
Majority: 407 (1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15011 (37.6%)
Labour: 18823 (47.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4833 (12.1%)
UKIP: 763 (1.9%)
Other: 494 (1.2%)
Majority: 3812 (9.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17807 (35.8%)
Labour: 23452 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7123 (14.3%)
Referendum: 1319 (2.7%)
Majority: 5645 (11.4%)
Boundary changes: loses a small part of Belle Vale to Halesowen and Rowley Regis. Gains Dudley Wood and a sliver of Cradley.
Profile: A black country constituency, covering the South West of the borough of Dudley and taking in the towns of Stourbridge, Amblecote and Cradley. Stourbridge is a suburban dormitory area on the edge of the West Midlands conurbation – while the seat is mainly urban, it borders onto open countryside just over the border in South Staffordshire. Largely white, lower middle-class, owner-occupied former council houses and large scale new-build private estates, especially in Amblecote. A Labour/Conservative marginal.
Current MP: Lynda Waltho(Labour) born 1960, London. Educated at Keele University. Former schoolteacher, assistant to Sylvia Heal MP and advisor to Neena Gill MEP. Selected at short notice after Debra Shipley stepped down just prior to the 2005 election. Currently (Dec 06) PPS to David Hanson (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Margot James (Conservative) born 1958, Coventry. Educated at Millfield and the LSE. Self made millionaire and founder of the Shire Health Group, later sold to WPP. Kensington and Chelsea Councillor since 2006. Contested Holborn and St Pancras in 2005. Vice Chairman of the Conservative party. James is the first openly lesbian candidate to stand for the Conservative party at a general election.
Edward Siddall-Jones (UKIP) Educated at the University of the West of England. Commercial property consultant
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88069
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 22.1%
Over 60: 21.1%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 94.8%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 3.7%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 77.3%
Muslim: 3%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 15.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.8%
Owner-Occupied: 75.3%
Social Housing: 17.6% (Council: 16.1%, Housing Ass.: 1.5%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 13.5%
until the famous 1968 by-election.
Well, I am glad to hear it was famous, Pete. Not, I am sure because I was among the footsoldiers there! It was among the first Parliamentary byelections I campaigned in! (3rd, I think) Anybody else here go to that one?
I think Stokes apparently did quite well to hold Halesowen & Stourbridge in the double defeat of 1974 (boundary changes of course).
He had a 6% swing in 1979 – Labour holding up though.
I think the share might have gone back about 3% in 1983 IIRC, but increased his share in 1987 (as did Hawkesley in 1992).
Regarding The Politics Show Choice,
This isn’t quite like analysing Hayes and Harlington as a key marginal seat in the run up to the 1997 election,
and the Labour MP seems quite good,
but I’d expect the Tories to take it, probably by about 3,000.
If it has been chosen for this media focus, I hope it’s going to declare on the night (see Facebook campaign etc.)