South Basildon and East Thurrock
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18113 (41.9%)
Conservative: 16645 (38.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4926 (11.4%)
Other: 3506 (8.1%)
Majority: 1467 (3.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15578 (36.1%)
Labour: 18720 (43.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4473 (10.4%)
BNP: 2055 (4.8%)
Green: 662 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1143 (2.6%)
Other: 510 (1.2%)
Majority: 3142 (7.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13813 (33.8%)
Labour: 21551 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3691 (9%)
UKIP: 1397 (3.4%)
Other: 423 (1%)
Majority: 7738 (18.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16366 (30.8%)
Labour: 29646 (55.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4608 (8.7%)
Referendum: 2462 (4.6%)
Majority: 13280 (25%)
Boundary changes: the creation of an extra seat in Essex has major knock-on effects throughout the county. The old Basildon seat loses a third of its electorate to the new Basildon and Billericay seat, including the centre of Basildon itself. The remainder of the old seat is joined by Pitsea from the old Billericay seat and East Tilbury from Thurrock. The seat was provisionally to be called East Thurrock and Pitsea, but was renamed in the revised stage.
Profile: The seat now excludes the centre of Basildon, taking in the southern suburbs like Kingswood and Vange and the town of Pitsea to the East that forms a conurbation with Basildon. Basildon is the quintessential “Essex man” town, a 1950s newtown regarded as the home of “white van man” who supported the Conservatives through the 1980s and switched to Labour in 97. The constituency also includes Langdon Country Park and more rural farmland in Orsett ward, the largely working-class commuter town of Stanford and an expanse of industrial marshland along the North of the Thames. The former Shell Haven oil refinery site is currently in the process of massive redevelopment, with Shell and P&O planning a major business park and deep sea container port.
Basildon is something of a bellwether seat, being won by the party that went on to form the government since it was created in 1992. The old Basildon seat was an iconic victory for the Conservatives in 1992, with David Amess`s successful holding of the seat heralding their ultimate victory. Amess himself moved to Southend West following the 1997 boundary changes.
Current MP: Angela Smith(Labour) born 1959, London. Educated at Chalvedon School and Leicester Polytechnic. Former researcher for Michael Meacher MP and head of Public Releations for the League against Cruel Sports. Essex County councillor 1989-1997. First elected as MP for Basildon in 1997. Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Northern Ireland from 2002-2006 and Parliamentary Under Secretary in the Department of Communities and Local Government since 2006 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Stephen Metcalfe (Conservative) Epping Forest councillor. Contested Ilford South 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96412
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 17.2%
Born outside UK: 4%
White: 96.7%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 74.1%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 9.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34%
Owner-Occupied: 71.5%
Social Housing: 21.7% (Council: 16.4%, Housing Ass.: 5.3%)
Privately Rented: 5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.4%
SOUTH BASILDON AND EAST THURROCK – PREDICTION 2010
Labour: 19,313
Conservative: 17,211
BNP: 3,506
Liberal Democrat: 3,226
Lab win
Majority: 2,102
A Labour hold? How hilarious. Tory gimme.
I hope Merton James is proved wrong, or we’re in for another devastating rout…
It would have to be an overall Labour win for this to happen.
Which is possible.
But not the most likey.
But taken together with a complete hotch potch of results, this would never happen together.
E.g. he has the Tories losing Guildford and Dorset S.
I suspect a fairly comfortable Tory gain of about 3,000, but perhaps not as large a swing as many assume, partly because some of it has happened already and Labour voters have clearly been complacent.
There could be a high BNP vote but I assume it would probably hit Labour harder than the Tories.
Merton James’s prediction is quite bizarre IMHO, on what basis does he predict a swing to Labour?
I would agree that the swing may not be as much as some expect, and that could be down to Angela Smith as a decent local MP. I would have thought a Conservative majority of 4000 or so.
Some of his predictions are quite serious and considered, but some I think were to provoke a reaction.
He started off quite nicely with an ambitious Lib Dem wipeout in Sutton (which I was a bit sceptical of as he predicted they have just 9 councillors – unfortunately I think they’ll keep 15-17 with some split votes), but it was rapidly downhill as he headed in my direction through Richmond, Twickenham, Guildford.
I feel pretty sure his Basildon and South Dorset predictions were to provide balance after he was attacked by Barnaby for predicting disastrous Labour results in Kent.
But I may of course be wrong, and he thinks we really will have a chaotic free for all where every party suffers.
I’m fairly sure the Tories will take this seat. It may be closer than some might expect but I can’t see Labour holding on with only a 3.4% notional majority.
I second that Andy, the Tories should win this seat, albeit tightly.
I cant help thinking that the name for this seat sounds silly and really ambiguous, Stanford and Pitsea or something like that would have sounded better
This will not be tight, unfortuantly. This seat will be see one of the biggest swings to the tories in the UK, wahtever the national result. Only the Pitsea and Vange wards are natural Labour territory here and even they have swung behind the tories.
There will be big turnouts in the East Thurrock part of the constituency which will be around 50% for the tories.