Somerton and Frome
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 23831 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 23792 (43.2%)
Labour: 5809 (10.6%)
Other: 1602 (2.9%)
Majority: 39 (0.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22947 (42.4%)
Labour: 5865 (10.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 23759 (43.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (1.9%)
Other: 484 (0.9%)
Majority: 812 (1.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22315 (42.4%)
Labour: 6113 (11.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22983 (43.6%)
UKIP: 919 (1.7%)
Other: 354 (0.7%)
Majority: 668 (1.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22554 (39.3%)
Labour: 9385 (16.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 22684 (39.5%)
Referendum: 2449 (4.3%)
Other: 331 (0.6%)
Majority: 130 (0.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: /p>
Current MP: David Heath(Lib Dem) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Annunziata Rees-Mogg (Conservative)
David Oakensen (Labour)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96719
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 4.5%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.9%
Social Housing: 12.2% (Council: 5.1%, Housing Ass.: 7.2%)
Privately Rented: 7.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.9%
Do the results thus far mean that P.M is likely to go?
Definite election this year; if so or will L abour stall?
Somerset County Results were highly encouraging for the Conservatives in this constituency.
Blackmoor Vale Tory hold
Castle Cary Tory gain from Lib Dem
Curry Rivel Tory hold
Frome North Tory gain from Lib Dem
Frome Selwood Lib Dem hold
Frome South Lib Dem hold
Langport Tory hold
Martock Lib Dem hold
Mendip Central & East Lib Dem hold
Mendip North East Tory gain from Lib Dem
Mendip South Tory hold
Somerton Tory gain from Lib Dem
Wincanton & Bruton Tory gain from Lib Dem
So in terms of county council divisions, it’s gone from to 9 Lib Dems and 4 Tories to 9-4 in the opposite direction.
That being said – David Heath is very popular, my impression of Rees-Mogg is that she’s very active in her set, but not entirely sure that would be enough. No-one’s ever going to be rich betting on S&F but if forced, I would have a modest wager on David Heath retaining the seat.
“That being said – David Heath is very popular, my impression of Rees-Mogg is that she’s very active in her set, but not entirely sure that would be enough. No-one’s ever going to be rich betting on S&F but if forced, I would have a modest wager on David Heath retaining the seat.”
Problem is Heath wouldn’t be holding it, but gaining it, due to the Tory-favouring boundary changes which is enough to tip this seat from Lib Dems to the Tories
Under those circumstances I can’t see anything but a Tory hold – even more so in light of those council results above, regardless of the alleged inadequacies of their candidate
I disagree Tim – obviously he would be the ncumbent for all but about 700 voters of this constituency. The effects of the boundary chanegs are hardly sweeping but because of the narrowness of the 2005 majority it is possible it may just be tipped into the Tory column notionally 9 the margin of 39 here is certainly within any margin of error and Thrasher & Rallings have a barely reduced notional LD majority of 595. I think the Tories have a very good chance of gaining this seat but wouldnt suggest that the boundary changes make this any more likely than the up to 1% difference that they appear to make to the electoral balance. It is not as if Rees-Mogg can suddenly claim incumbency on the basis of some abstract notional result.
But I don’t see the Lib Dems making any gains against the Tories at the next election
They might fluke it in somewhere like Eastbourne, but that would be very much against the grain, and whilst I think they might be able to hold off a lot of more of the Tory challenges than people are currently giving them credit for, I can’t see too many seats (certainly not in the South West) swinging from Conservative to Lib Dem – which is what would have to happen here for the likeable Mr Heath to hold on
I hope I’m wrong but I think Ms Rees-Mogg will probably win with about a 3k majority
On a minor technical point , the Electoral Commission made a small change to the boundaries of S and F a couple of years ago which transferred 312 voters into Wells constituency . On Anthony’s figures this would have again become a notional LibDem seat with a majority of circa 10 .
“I can’t see too many seats (certainly not in the South West) swinging from Conservative to Lib Dem – which is what would have to happen here for the likeable Mr Heath to hold on”
Although its possible that if every voter in this constituency voted exactly the same way in 2010 as they did in 2005 then the LibDems might still win owing to voter ‘churn’.
Does anyone know whether Rees-Mogg female is of the same ilk as her almost certain to be elected brother.
A google search of her name does not bring up a string of negative media stories going back several years. In that respect at least she has the advantage over her brother.
“Rees-Mogg female”
Isn’t that an incredibly offensive thing to say?
“Isn’t that an incredibly offensive thing to say?”
It’s political correctness gone mad.
Shaun,
No it’s not offensive – please don’t be a windbag.
“Does anyone know whether Rees-Mogg female is of the same ilk as her almost certain to be elected brother.”
Well I may have misunderstood what was being said. But presumably if you Neil have a female relative and they were described by someone as “Neil female” or whatever rather than by their name you would feel a little miffed too?
The comment shows a complete lack of respect for the person in question. I’m not complaining about the question, but it should have been:
“Does anyone know whether Annunziata Rees Mogg is of the same ilk as her almost certain to be elected brother.”
Isn’t the kind of political correctness we see here exhibited by the Bennett male exactly the kind of thing we expect the Tories to expunge?
You know, I don’t honestly think that any of you have got a clue what the phrase “political correctness” MEANS!
I’ll have you know that I find being accused of political correctness alomst as offensive as if I were accused of being a closet Lib Dem.
What I’m talking about is common courtesy and the total lack of respect that was shown by the comment above in refering to her as the “Rees-Mogg female”.