Renfrewshire East
2005 Results:
Labour: 20815 (43.9%)
Conservative: 14158 (29.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8659 (18.3%)
SNP: 3245 (6.8%)
Other: 528 (1.1%)
Majority: 6657 (14%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Eastwood.
2001 Result
Conservative: 13895 (28.7%)
Labour: 23036 (47.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6239 (12.9%)
SNP: 4137 (8.6%)
Other: 1061 (2.2%)
Majority: 9141 (18.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17530 (33.6%)
Labour: 20766 (39.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6110 (11.7%)
SNP: 6826 (13.1%)
Referendum: 497 (1%)
Other: 506 (1%)
Majority: 3236 (6.2%)
No Boundary Changes
Profile: a middle class suburban commuter seat outside Glasgow that, were it not in Scotland, would almost certainly be a safe Conservative seat. Renfrewshire East has the largest Jewish population of any seat in Scotland, with almost half of Scotland`s Jewish population living in the area. In the boundary changes to Scottish constituencies in 2005 Renfrewshire East, previously called Eastwood, was the only constituency to retain its previous boundaries.
Current MP: Jim Murphy (Labour) born 1967, Glasgow. Formerly President of the NUS. Served as a whip during the 2001-2005 Parliament and was made a junior minister after the 2005 election. Minister of State in the department of Work and Pensions 2006-2007, Minister of State for Europe 2007-2008, Secretary of State for Scotland 2008- (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Richard Cook (Conservative) Educated at Williamwood Secondary. Commercial manager for Biffa Waste Services. Vice-Chairman of Scottish Conservative party. Contested Glasgow Cathcart in the 2001 Westminister election, 2003 Scottish Parliament election and 2005 Scottish Parliament by-election. Contested East Renfrewshire 2005.
Gordon Archer (SNP) Eduated at St Augustine High School. Former Glasgow councillor for Labour who defected to the SNP. Contested Dundee West 2001.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89311
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 25.4%
Over 60: 20.8%
Born outside UK: 3.8%
White: 96.2%
Asian: 2.9%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 67.5%
Jewish: 3.5%
Muslim: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 28.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.5%
Owner-Occupied: 83.4%
Social Housing: 12.3% (Council: 10.3%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 2.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.7%
Maybe I am just cynical, but there could be a reason for Paisley being split. The Renfrewshire seat Peter suggests would be the safest Conservative seat in Scotland (not difficult) while the Paisley seat would be solid Labour. The way they are currently split Labour managed both seats in 2005, when the would only have managed one (probably) if Paisley hadn’t been split.
Interestingly, in the Ayrshire seats a great deal was made by the Boundary Commission that Kilmarnock should not be split. If Kilmarnock was split there would be natural constituencies looking promising for the Conservatives, and a very safe Labour one – the way it is now, all three are just outside the Conservatives’ reach.
Kilmarnock is a much smaller town than Paisley.
I actually think RMMG’s suggestion would help the Conservatives. Newlands is one of the most Conservative parts of the City, and top of our target list at the next council elections. Barrhead on the other hand is quite Labour.
Neil, between the 2 Paisley/Renfrewshire seats in 2005, Labour got over 38,000 votes, the SNP and the Lib Dems about 14,000 each, and the Conservatives less than 9,000.
There’s no way you could slice-and-dice that to make ‘the safest Conservative seat in Scotland’ !
The electorate of Paisley is only about 50,000 which is too small for a Westminster seat, but OK for Holyrood.
“Newlands is one of the most Conservative parts of the City”
For Glasgow, thats not really saying very much is it. Lets remember that even under PR there is only one ward in the city that actually elects a Conservative councillor. And since generla elections are fought under the far superior FPTP system, it is under that system that you need to show you can win it. So the question is, how likely was Newlands to go Conservative on the old FPTP system?
Meanwhile, on the present boundaries we have a seat that was quite happily amongst the safest Conservative seats in Scotland for a good many years. Barrhead can be outvoted, or at least mitigated as much as any part of Glasgow.
“Newlands is one of the most Conservative parts of the City”
I would agree with the above statement to some degree, as at the last local elections the Conservatives topped the poll in two of Newlands polling districts of Glasgow City Council. In Pollokshields, the Conservatives (while not coming first ina any) polled strongly in a greater number of polling districts (giving them the third seat in Pollokshields Ward).
Newlands is just part of the Council seat Newlands/Auldhouse and is out voted by large parts of that ward that are made up of council estates and high rises at Carnwadric and Pollokshaws. The actual Newlands area has also had council housing built amongst it over the years but if the core Newlands/Muirend area was added to East REnfewshire that should help the Conservatives though it’s not going to happen as would be gerry mandering rather and there are big issues in terms of the Glasgow / East Ren border here. Interestingly for the Holyrood seat East Renfrewshire is to lose Barrhead which spells doom for the current Labour MSP. He tried to argue that the suburbs of Giffnock and Netherlee that are on the boundary with Glasgow should be removed and addeded to Glasgow instead of Barrhead which had more of an infinity with the rest of the seat going in with Paisley , this is blatent nonesense and won’t help his cause in those areas come the Scottish Parliament elections.
“even under PR there is only one ward in the city that actually elects a Conservative councillor. ”
With one seat the Tories are still doing better in Glasgow than in Manchester, Newcastle and Liverpool.
‘Even under PR’….. STV is actually to the detriment of the Tories and is not proportional. The Tories came third in share of the vote in Glasgow yet under STV, the 4th and 5th place LD’s and Greens won far more seats.
STV is not proportional respresentation. The new wmulti member wards actually, omit many first past the post winnable seats in Glasgow.
Hyndland was absorbed into Hillhead
Kelvindale was absorbed into Maryhill
Jordanhill was absorbed into Partick West
Cathcart/ Newlands were absorbed into Carnwadrick
Maxwell Park (West Pollokshields) as absorbed into Pollokshields
Ah but they came 3rd overall, which is not how the local elections in Glasgow (or elsewhere in Scotland) work. They are ward-by-ward, so saying “the Conservatives came third” but were beaten by “fourth place” other parties is misleading.
No it’s not how it works but the wards are drawn up very badly for the Conservatives and the system works well for the Greens and Lib Dems who get alot of 2nd and 3rd preference votes from the other three parties.