Northampton South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16033 (42.7%)
Conservative: 14647 (39%)
Liberal Democrat: 4812 (12.8%)
Other: 2090 (5.6%)
Majority: 1386 (3.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 23818 (43.7%)
Labour: 19399 (35.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 8327 (15.3%)
UKIP: 1032 (1.9%)
Other: 1905 (3.5%)
Majority: 4419 (8.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20997 (41.1%)
Labour: 21882 (42.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6355 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1237 (2.4%)
Other: 558 (1.1%)
Majority: 885 (1.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23470 (41.1%)
Labour: 24214 (42.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6316 (11.1%)
Referendum: 1405 (2.5%)
Other: 1700 (3%)
Majority: 744 (1.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Brian Binley(Con) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Clyde Loakes (Labour) Waltham Forest councillor since 1998. Leader of Waltham Forest council since 2003.
Paul Varnsverry (Liberal Democrat) Northampton councillor.
Tony Clarke (Independent) born 1963, Northampton. Part-time general manager of Northampton Town FC. Labour MP for Northampton South 1997-2005. Independent Northampton councillor since 2007, resulting in his expulsion from the Labour party.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84650
Male: 49.5%
Female: 50.5%
Under 18: 23.2%
Over 60: 17.9%
Born outside UK: 9.4%
White: 90.6%
Black: 2.5%
Asian: 4%
Mixed: 1.8%
Other: 1.1%
Christian: 66.6%
Hindu: 1.2%
Muslim: 2.8%
Full time students: 4.1%
Graduates 16-74: 16%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.7%
Owner-Occupied: 67.6%
Social Housing: 21.4% (Council: 18%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 7.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.5%
Electoral Calculus (tracking poll of polls) give Tories (Mr.Binley) comfortable majority with 42% of projected vote.
The Tony Clarke factor seems to be making its mark with 15% polled by “others” for which Tony is the most prominent.
LDs seem way down with just 11% i.e. lost deposit territory for Cllr.Varnsverry.
Acromac
Electoral calculus are just being lazy and uping the “Other ” vote in every constituency to around the 15% mark and taking it off the Lib Dems and Labour.
I have said my piece on this one and had a wager but I would predict at the minute the following
Labour 29%
Tory 32%
Lib 9%
Other 30%
I can’t see Labour recovering as their candidate has gone missing and Binley seems to be imploding, the Lib Dem is making no ground and Tony Clarkes vote is still rising. I think by the time of the election this could well be a shock to many, but given the local circumstances which EC and other pollsters never take into account as they are not close enough to the action.
Pollcat
A week’s a long time in politics……9 months an eternity. Wouldn’t you agree that the intensity of an election campaign will focus attention on which of the 2 main Parties will/should form the next Government?
There is no Wyre Forest type burning local issue in NS, i.e. a single local issue on which Tony Clarke can base his campaign. You are right about an AWOL Labour candidate – quite amazing given that the clock is ticking and he has virtually no profile in the NS constituency.
Spartacus has confined himself to attacking Brian Binley’s character in the local press. Doing nothing apart from licking wounds from another failed election campaign (West Hunsbury), in which Tory majority increased on a much reduced poll over 2005.
Predict Tony Clarke will siphon off 4 possible Labour voters for every Tory vote he picks up. Your forecast might be valid for a by election here.Surely well wide of the mark when those who cast their votes will want to decide the make up of the next Westminster Government.
Two things will dominate the general election campaign.
1) Don’t vote Labour,
2) Don’t vote for your MP Lab/Tory/Lib Dem whoever if they have fiddled their expenses.
This will surpress the Labour and Tory vote in this seat, a lot depends on how Clarke presents his campaign and also who else stands, I also think that a new party of some sort may be established nationaly which will have an impact. I think the Lib dems are shot because of their reputation on the Borough Council in Northampton.
So I see either a Tory win on a reduced vote for all the main three or a shock with people voting Independent (not just in Northampton) or Green where both they put up credible candidates.
Pollcat
Dont disagree with much of your take on NS. However, a Parliamentary by election offers voters a one off chance to point two fingers at the established Parties (your point re the expenses issue). We have one this week in Norwich North. I predict a Tory gain, despite all the other goodies on offer from, in particular, the Greens.
If the electorate is minded to back a mainstream opposition Party at a fairly meaningless Parliamentary by-election, then I cannot see them switching to an Independent in large numbers at a General.
Q : Where does that leave Tony Clarke?
A : Beating Clyde Loakes, the official Labour candidate, into third place. Real mission (unfinished business with Labour) accomplished.
Northampton South Constituency has now been suspended!
Apparantly a leaflet went out in a by election with an endorsement for a Labour Candidate (Geoff Howes) from Tony Clarke.
The NEC have suspended the party and launched investigations against a number of members.
Civil war it seems has broken out and Clyde Loakes must be wishing he had kept his job as leader of Waltham Forest.
A two horse race it seems now between the Tory Brian Binley who musty start favourite and Tony Clarke as the Independent.