Newbury
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 26327 (49%)
Liberal Democrat: 22909 (42.6%)
Labour: 3185 (5.9%)
Other: 1332 (2.5%)
Majority: 3418 (6.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26771 (49%)
Labour: 3239 (5.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 23311 (42.6%)
UKIP: 857 (1.6%)
Other: 495 (0.9%)
Majority: 3460 (6.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22092 (43.5%)
Labour: 3523 (6.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 24507 (48.2%)
UKIP: 685 (1.3%)
Majority: 2415 (4.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21370 (37.8%)
Labour: 3107 (5.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 29887 (52.9%)
Referendum: 992 (1.8%)
Other: 1120 (2%)
Majority: 8517 (15.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Richard Benyon(Con) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Hannah Cooper (Labour)
David Rendel (Liberal Democrat)
Peter Burnand (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98474
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 23.4%
Over 60: 18.3%
Born outside UK: 6.4%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 75.8%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 23%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.5%
Owner-Occupied: 71.6%
Social Housing: 15.5% (Council: 0.9%, Housing Ass.: 14.6%)
Privately Rented: 8.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.7%
Here are the results for Newbury on the 1982-1995 boundaries
(i.e. 1979 is notional, 1983-92 inclusive are actual).
(It’s a pity we don’t have notional results across 1979 to 2005 so we can compare all across.)
1979 notional.
Con 26,832 53.1%
Lib 18,179 36.0%
Lab 5,468 10.8%
Oth 10 0.0%
C maj 8,653 17.1%
1983 actual, change since 1979
Con 31,836 59.3% +6.2%
Lib 18,798 35.0% -1.0%
Lab 3,027 5.6% -5.2%
C maj 13,038 24.3%
Swing 3.6% from Lib to Con since 1979
1987 actual, change since 1983 & since 1979
Con 35,266 60.1% +0.8% +7.0%
Lib 18,608 31.7% -3.3% -4.3%
Lab 4,765 8.1% +2.5% -2.7%
C majority 16,658 28.4%
Swing 2.1% from Lib to Con since 1983
Swing 5.7% from Lib to Con since 1979
1992 actual, change since 1987 & 1983 & 1979
Con 37,135 55.9% -4.2% -3.4% +2.8%
Lib 24,778 37.3% +5.6% +2.3% +1.3%
Lab 3,962 6.0% -2.2% +0.4% -4.8%
Grn 539 0.8%
C majority 12,357 18.6%
Swing 4.9% from C to LD since 1987
Swing 2.9% from C to LD since 1983
Swing 0.8% from Lib/LD to Con since 1979
VoteDave’s prediction looks fair, I strongly suspect an increased majority but whether it’s a bit more or very large couldn’t say.
The 1992 result put the figure back to near 1979 but the numerical votes were much bigger due to larger electorate.
I’ll have to check my book of 1979 notionals,
but I wonder whether there is a significant chance
of the estimate being wrong here.
But I strongly suspect not – it looks like there was a genuine
increase in Con support here in 1983 which was a very defence dominated
election, and the 1992 result was a bit of a correction putting some Liberal
strength back in which had been dormant during the Alliance.
I think the notionals were more or less correct. The only thing one could guess is that maybe the Liberal vote in 1983 stayed level or increased very slightly rather than declining by 1%, and the Tory vote only increased by 4-5% rather than 6%.