Liverpool Wavertree
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17060 (49%)
Liberal Democrat: 14022 (40.3%)
Conservative: 2500 (7.2%)
Other: 1207 (3.5%)
Majority: 3038 (8.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 2331 (6.6%)
Labour: 18441 (52.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 13268 (37.7%)
UKIP: 660 (1.9%)
Other: 471 (1.3%)
Majority: 5173 (14.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3091 (9.6%)
Labour: 20155 (62.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7836 (24.4%)
UKIP: 348 (1.1%)
Other: 708 (2.2%)
Majority: 12319 (38.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4944 (10.8%)
Labour: 29592 (64.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9891 (21.5%)
Referendum: 576 (1.3%)
Other: 915 (2%)
Majority: 19701 (42.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jane Kennedy(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Colin Eldridge (Liberal Democrat) born 1977. Educated at St Bartholomew`s Newbury and the University of the West of England. Freelance sales and marketing executive. Bristol City councillor between 1998-2001. Contested Woodspring in 2001, Liverpool Wavertree in 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88192
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 19.3%
Born outside UK: 6.1%
White: 92.1%
Black: 1.8%
Asian: 1.5%
Mixed: 2.5%
Other: 2.1%
Christian: 77.1%
Jewish: 1.3%
Muslim: 1.9%
Full time students: 10.4%
Graduates 16-74: 19%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.1%
Owner-Occupied: 58.9%
Social Housing: 21.7% (Council: 7.8%, Housing Ass.: 13.9%)
Privately Rented: 17%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 28.2%
If you look at Robert Worcester’s books on the last few elections he has polling evidence that people from an Anglican background are more pro-Tory than average and the same is true for Labour and Catholics. Many of Labour’s safest seats are in traditionally Catholic areas. Although most people aren’t religious these days, the voting habits still remain it seems. The Tories would have won the last election if only Anglicans had been voting according to Worcester’s figures.
UKIPs strongest areas are the south coast, south west, east anglia, and the east coast by Lincolnshire – these are all areas with very low numbers of people from a Catholic background.
“Anthony’s recent PopulusHome poll of marginals suggests that the LibDems will only take Islington South and Finsbury from Labour. Which is actually what he suggested on this site even before he conducted the poll.”
No it wasn’t. I said I thought it was their most likely gain (or at least, that’s what I meant to say!), I’ve never said I don’t expect any others.
I wish the Liberal Democrats well – their best chance is if the public doesn’t believe the Labour claims regarding ‘they won’t cut’ and the Tory claims that ‘they won’t tax’!
Andy – thats true re UKIP. The same I would expect of the BNP too although they’re now coming 2nd to Labour (with Catholic candidates) in several Liverpool wards.