Hove
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16829 (37.1%)
Conservative: 16378 (36.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8074 (17.8%)
Green: 3008 (6.6%)
Other: 1072 (2.4%)
Majority: 450 (1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16366 (36.5%)
Labour: 16786 (37.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8002 (17.9%)
Green: 2575 (5.7%)
UKIP: 575 (1.3%)
Other: 492 (1.1%)
Majority: 420 (0.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16082 (38.3%)
Labour: 19253 (45.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3823 (9.1%)
UKIP: 358 (0.9%)
Green: 1369 (3.3%)
Other: 1103 (2.6%)
Majority: 3171 (7.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17499 (36.4%)
Labour: 21458 (44.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4645 (9.7%)
Referendum: 1931 (4%)
Other: 2588 (5.4%)
Majority: 3959 (8.2%)
Boundary changes: Almost insignificant, Hove gains a few hundred voters from the tidying up of the boundary with Brighton Pavilion to match slight changes in the ward boundaries.
Profile: Hove forms part of a conurbation with Brighton, in 2000 Brighton & Hove achieved city status. Hove has a reputation of being quieter and more genteel than its neighbour, though areas like Brunswick are actually rather bohemian. As a South coast retirement area the seat has one of the highest proportions of pensioners. The constituency also includes Portslade Village and Portslade-on-Sea – the industrial centre of Brighton & Hove and one of the staunchest Labour areas in the city.
Current MP: Celia Barlow(Labour) born 1955, Cardiff. Educated at Cambridge University. Worked as a BBC journalist, freelancer and college lecturer prior to her election in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Mike Weatherley (Conservative) born 1957. Finance Director for Custommatic Ltd. Crawley Borough councillor 2006-2007. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2005, Barking 2001.
Ian Davey (Green) Brighton and Hove councillor. Former IT consultant. Runs Bike for Life, a social enterprise promoting cycling.
Stuart Bower (UKIP) Former policeman and Labour party member. In February 2008 unsuccessfully attempted to sue the Prime Minister for breach of contract for the failure to grant a referendum on the EU constitution.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92230
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 18.6%
Over 60: 22.7%
Born outside UK: 11.2%
White: 94%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.9%
Mixed: 2.1%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 61.7%
Hindu: 0.6%
Jewish: 2.3%
Muslim: 1.7%
Full time students: 4.8%
Graduates 16-74: 27.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.9%
Owner-Occupied: 64.6%
Social Housing: 11% (Council: 7%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 21.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.8%
It will certainly be interesting to see how well UKIP do in the next general election but it’s worth remembering in 1997 the Referendum Party were talking up their chances and ultimately got nowhere
Your general point seems right though
The Labour Pary are vastly unpopular and whilst the Conservatives look almost certain on to win the next election, people don’t seem to have been won round to them as they had to Blair in the mid-90s
Thus you’d expect the Lib Dems to be riding high, especially when you consider that in Vince Cable they have arguably the most popular MP in the House of Commons
They seem to have got back up to the 20% mark (which is a better position than what they were in a couple of years back) – but whenever one poll shows them to have passed it, another shows them below
Brighton & Hove hasn’t been fertile ground for the Lib Dems for the last 100 years, but I do sense that if the Green Party weren’t as popular as they are, the plenty of hippies, radicals, students would be keeping the Lib Dems competitive
Labour did EXTREMELY WELL to gain this seat in 1997 (which theparty had NEVER gained before) overturning a Tory majority of about 12, 000, let alone holding it for three terms!!!! That’s pretty amazing for a seat that was always considered to be ‘true blue’.
‘Labour did EXTREMELY WELL to gain this seat in 1997 (which theparty had NEVER gained before) overturning a Tory majority of about 12, 000, let alone holding it for three terms’
It merely followed the national pattern
In 1997 Labour overturned bigger majorities than the 12,268 Tim Sainsbury had racked up for the Tories
Labour had never won in Brighton Pavilion until 1997 either, and that has always contained many wards that you’d expect to be staunchly Labour
Whilst for the most part Hove is fairly picturesque, places like Mile Oak, Hangleton, industrial Portslade will always have Labour votes and in an even year I’d expect this seat to be Tory, but not overwhelmingly so
Labour benefitted from social and demographic change in 1997 in this as well as a number of other South Coast seats. Wealthy pensioners were no longer retiring to resorts like Hove, but were going overseas. And in addition, benefit claimants were taking rooms in the bed and breakfast houses that could no longer attract holidaymakers (although this was perhaps more true of Brighton or Hastings).
Christian, raw swings have to be interpreted in relation to the underlying causes that result in changed public opinion. That is why a site like this is valuable to supplement polling data.
A friend on Facebook has posted pictures of the Brighton Pride march – one feels they may have been potential LibDem voters in the era of Jeremy Thorpe but not these days.
The Greens are holding their Conference at Hove Town Hall (as of September 4th.). According to the papers, they hope this will help build up their support in Brighton Pavillion, but presumably it will help them here too.
They really need to put all their efforts into Pavilion given the way our electoral system works. Effort expended in Hove or Kemptown is probably wasted unless it has a knock-on effect in Pavilion, as this conference probably will.