Halton
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 23783 (63.5%)
Conservative: 7339 (19.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6243 (16.7%)
Other: 83 (0.2%)
Majority: 16444 (43.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6854 (20.1%)
Labour: 21460 (62.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5869 (17.2%)
Majority: 14606 (42.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 6413 (18.6%)
Labour: 23841 (69.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4216 (12.2%)
Majority: 17428 (50.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 7847 (17.7%)
Labour: 31497 (70.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3263 (7.3%)
Referendum: 1036 (2.3%)
Other: 796 (1.8%)
Majority: 23650 (53.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Derek Twigg(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Ben Jones (Conservative)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87749
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 23.9%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 1.9%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 85%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 11%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.7%
Owner-Occupied: 66.2%
Social Housing: 26.7% (Council: 17.6%, Housing Ass.: 9.1%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.5%
This is one of those seats here I can see the Labour vote falling quite heavily, including to UKIP and BNP if they stand. Labour might not poll much more than 50% on a bad night with possibly 5% going to both of those minor parties.
Based on results on the ground, there’s a very strong chance the Labour vote will fall below 50% in this seat; with the Tories a (granted still way distant) second on approaching 30%.
I would expect Labour to fall back more here because it’s such a safe seat already, but to stay around 54-55%.
I think the Tories will emerge as the clear challengers but won’t get beyond 30%.
One of those seats you don’t tend to visit unless you’ve got a special reason to.