Guildford
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22095 (43.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 22018 (43.3%)
Labour: 5013 (9.9%)
Other: 1691 (3.3%)
Majority: 77 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22595 (43.8%)
Labour: 5054 (9.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 22248 (43.1%)
Green: 811 (1.6%)
UKIP: 645 (1.2%)
Other: 278 (0.5%)
Majority: 347 (0.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19820 (41.4%)
Labour: 6558 (13.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 20358 (42.6%)
UKIP: 736 (1.5%)
Other: 370 (0.8%)
Majority: 538 (1.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 24230 (42.5%)
Labour: 9945 (17.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 19439 (34.1%)
Referendum: 2650 (4.7%)
Other: 694 (1.2%)
Majority: 4791 (8.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Anne Milton(Con) born 1955. Educated at Haywards Heath Grammar School and St Barts Hospital, London. Former NHS nurse. Former district council and Conservative group leader on Reigate and Banstead council. Shadow minister for tourism since 2006. First elected as MP for Guildford in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Tim Shand (Labour) born Edinburgh. Educated at Broughton High School and Glasgow University. Works for an NGO involved in adolescent health and HIV prevention. Contested Glasgow Kelvin for the Green party 2001.
Sue Doughty (Liberal Democrat) born 1948, York. Educated at Mill Mount Grammar School and Northumberland College. Former manager with Thames Water and consultant project manager. Liberal Democrat shadow environment spokesman 2002-2005. Served as MP for Guildford from 2001-2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97642
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 20%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 11.4%
White: 95.5%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 72.4%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 9%
Graduates 16-74: 32.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 17.7%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 13.5% (Council: 11.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 10.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.2%
Pete, or anyone, please can you give me the County Council wards for this seat?
I think it’s all the wards named Guildford, plus
Worplesdon,
but I also think it may include Shere?
Regards
Joe
I think Shere is in Mole Valley mostly, but also this seat includes part of Waverley distrcit – Cranleigh etc. Will try and check the details
Yes, I feared the CC divisions cross Parliamentary seats…I want to add them up.
Thanks.
It is a bit more complicated. It includes part of Worplesdon division (Worplesdon itself, but Normandy and Pirbright are in Woking) and part of Shalford (Shalford itself and Pilgrims, but Ash South & Tongham is in Surrey Heath). It does include all of Cranleigh & Ewhurst from Waverley and also part of Waverley Eastern Villages. Shere is entirely within Mole Valley excpet for a small part of the Shalford district ward which is in this seat.
There is generally evidence that when a party loses a seat it does badly compared to the national swing in the following General Election. This does not just apply to the LibDems: it was very noticeable for Labour in the 1980s.
On LibDem showings in the European and County elections, they do not look likely to retake this seat at the next General Election unless there is some exceptional local factor, which there does not appear to be. However, it will be important for them to keep their vote together to come back if a Tory government becomes unpopular.
The CC results for the wards making up this parliamentary seat were :-
Con 14542
LD. 13894
Lab 1990
UKIP 1850
Green 180
this assumes an homogenous vote in the wards which are split between this and other constituencies .
However Normandy/Piyrbright were strongly Conservative in the 2007 district elections , Worplesdon marginally LibDem ,Shafford was pretty uniformly Conservative in the 2007 district elections .I would estimate that allowing for the LibDem supremacy in Worplesdon the CC results would have been almost a dead heat in Guildford between Conservative and LibDem certainly less than 200 votes in it .
I have recalculated the figures to allow for the Worplesdon split as per the 2008 DC elections .
The figures become Con 14302 LDem 14134 as near as makes no difference too close to call .
Thanks – useful.
It would be useful to see the comparison with 2005 CC results. I could do a calculation but I might split divisions in a different way to Mark so it would be better if we could compare across the two results using the same methodology. I know the Conservatives gained two of the LD seats in Guildford town itself but this doesnt necessarily mean there was a general swing to the Conservatives within the constituency.
The LibDems led by around 800 votes in the 2005 CC ( total vote circa 50,000 ) so around a 1% swing from LibDem to Con from 2005 CC to 2009 CC .