Filton and Bradley Stoke
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 14742 (35.7%)
Labour: 13541 (32.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 11243 (27.2%)
Other: 1820 (4.4%)
Majority: 1201 (2.9%)
New seat: Filton and Bradley Stoke is largely made up of the old Bristol North-West, whose extent is now limited to the City of Bristol unitary authority, along with parts of the former Northavon and Kingswood constituencies.
Profile: Filton, a suburb of Bristol, is a centre for the aviation industry. Parts for the Airbus A380 are manufactured in Airbus`s Filton plant before being shipped to Broughton for assembly. The large Bradley Stoke housing development was built in the late 1980s and now forms a dormitory suburb for Bristol. The constituency also includes the villages of Almondsbury and Severn Beach to the West.
Candidates: Jack Lopresti (Conservative) Mortgage broker and former estate agent. Bristol councillor until 2007. Contested Bristol East 2001. Contested South-West region in the 2004 European Election.
Ian Boulton (Labour)
John Kiely (Liberal Democrat) born 1957. Business advisor. Former Bristol councillor. Contested Bristol East 1992.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82640
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 18.7%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 96.4%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.3%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 71.6%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 3.5%
Graduates 16-74: 20.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.4%
Owner-Occupied: 80%
Social Housing: 10% (Council: 7.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 7.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
Trough-gate will play out well for Lib Dems here.
Expect over 100 L.D. seats in May?
I’m hearing that the LD candidate may have resigned here and need to be replaced
If that is true, the Lib Dems will be looking for their 3rd candidate for this seat.
Could it be connected with the fact that John Kiely was re-elected to Bristol council in May?
Perhaps the Lib Dems are in a mess here because they’re worried about holding Thornbury & Yate.
I think that seat has some demographics which show it could swing sharply to the right in different national circumstances.
But their majority there is substantial so I’m not predicting Con gain as most likely there (although I do here – Con hold).
I think the Lib Dems are very entrenched in parts of Thornbury & Yate, particularly Yate itself. Yet this seat should be a Lib Dem target – realistically Labour will not get 33% of the vote like they (notionally) did last time, so there are a lot of votes up for grabs.
John Kiely has indeed resigned;
http://www.bradleystokejournal.co.uk/2009/09/06/john-kiely-resigns-lib-dem-ppc-filton-bradley-stoke/
The Lib Dems seems to have made a complete hash of a seat they could have gained. I’ve not been aware of any Labour activity and the Tory is low profile locally.
From what I’ve heard, I get the impression that Bradley Stoke is a ‘Daily Mail reader’ type of area. Am I right?
Well politics show West profiled the constituency last week, and concluded the whole constituency was a hash for everyone – went round a shopping centre and could only find one person who’d heard of the new constituency, LDs losing two candidates before any election, Tories spelling their candidate’s name wrong on literature, and the Labour candidate admitting it was a bad time – to be a Labour candidate. I don’t think anyone comes out of this one looking good, from the moment the Boundary Commission made it onwards…..
I don’t think Labour is as likely to do aswell here as I thought in 2007, early 2008.
I can see quite a big Tory majority here,
about 25%,
with Labour, then the LDs both somewhat faded.
Joe James B, how well do you think the Tories will do here? i.e. the majority? Also, will this seat be winnable for during a Labour landslide?
Also, am I right in thinking most people living in Bradley Stoke is a Daily Mail reader’ type of area?
I can see it being something like 47/48% Con to 25% Labour and 20% LD.
Yes, I do think Labour will challenge again here next time they are on the way up.