Enfield Southgate
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 18471 (43.7%)
Labour: 17298 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4915 (11.6%)
Other: 1595 (3.8%)
Majority: 1173 (2.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18830 (44.6%)
Labour: 17083 (40.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4724 (11.2%)
Green: 1083 (2.6%)
UKIP: 490 (1.2%)
Majority: 1747 (4.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16181 (38.6%)
Labour: 21727 (51.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 2935 (7%)
UKIP: 298 (0.7%)
Green: 662 (1.6%)
Other: 105 (0.3%)
Majority: 5546 (13.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19137 (41.1%)
Labour: 20570 (44.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4966 (10.7%)
Referendum: 1342 (2.9%)
Other: 518 (1.1%)
Majority: 1433 (3.1%)
Boundary changes: Gains the majority of Highlands from Enfield North, a large part of Grange ward which is currently split between the three Enfield seats, and a substantial part of Palmers Green from Edmonton. There are also smaller changes due to new ward boundaries, which involve losing a tiny part of Bush Hill Park and gaining a few hundred voters in Bowes.
Profile: Stephen Twigg’s victory over Michael Portillo in Enfield Southgate symbolised the Labour victory in 1997 in the same way that David Amess’s defence of Basildon characterised the Conservative win in 1992. A book about election night 1997 by the journalist Brian Cathcart was later published with the title “Were you still up for Portillo?”.
Twigg’s victory was a surprise and his 8 years as MP for Enfield Southgate seem to have been an aberration in Enfield Southgate otherwise constant representation by the Conservative party. This the the prosperous, leafy western part of the Borough of Enfield and natural Conservative territory. It is more cosmopolitan than the Conservative suburbs of south-east London, there are sizeable Muslim, Jewish and Cypriot populations here, and the Bowes Park area to the south of the constituency is solidly Labour, but overall Southgate tends towards a middle-class Conservative area. To the north the seat becomes semi-rural as it takes in Trent Park and the Middlesex University campus and stretches into the hugely expensive Hadley Wood area.
Current MP: David Burrowes (Con) born 1969, Cockfosters. Educated at Highgate School and University of Exeter. Solicitor. Former Enfield councillor. Founded the Conservative Christian Fellowship along with Tim Montgomerie. Contested Edmonton 2001. MP for Enfield Southgate since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Bambos Charalambous (Labour) Enfield councillor. Contested Epping Forest 2005
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86241
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 20.2%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 27.4%
White: 80.3%
Black: 5.4%
Asian: 9.6%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 2.1%
Christian: 59.8%
Hindu: 4.6%
Jewish: 4.7%
Muslim: 8.1%
Full time students: 6.5%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.7%
Owner-Occupied: 75.7%
Social Housing: 9.8% (Council: 7.3%, Housing Ass.: 2.6%)
Privately Rented: 12%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.3%
I don’t think so.
My neighbour (who I ‘m 99% sure calls himself Moral Minority) said it blew up before the 1997 election when he was no longer MP but still prominent as chairman in Scotland.
No, the scandal only burst during the 1997 election when Sir Michael Hurst was Scottish Tory Chairman and the candidate for Eastwood. Eastwood must have been the only seat that had two candidates resign consecutively due to scandals. Otherwise there’s a chance that Allan Steward could have held onto the Tories’ safest seat in Scotland.
Yes – I know he’d ceased to be MP in 1987, but I think was candidate in S&B in 1992, and was still prominant in the area as Chairman.
I agree the story sounds far fetched as related to the results.
London 2008 results – Enfield Southgate (new boundaries):
{Excluding postal votes}
Mayor:
C – 14,109 (52.37%), Lab – 8,390 (31.14%), LD – 2,384 (8.85%), Green – 844 (3.13%)
Constituency Vote, (Enfield&Haringey):
C – 13,131 (49.14%), Lab – 7,215 (27.00%), LD – 2,381 (8.91%), Green – 1,868 (6.99%)
List:
C – 12,243 (45.73%), Lab – 6,696 (25.01%), LD – 2,216 (8.28%), Green – 2,214 (8.27%)
POSTAL VOTES for whole of Enfield:
Mayor: C – 6,510 (45.39%), Lab – 4,929 (34.37%), LD – 1,307 (9.11%), Green – 447 (3.12%)
Constituency: C – 6,234 (43.44%), Lab – 4,435 (30.90%), LD – 1,207 (8.41%), Green – 758 (5.28%)
List: C – 5,804 (40.44%), Lab – 4,271 (29.76%), LD – 1,115 (7.77%), Green – 764 (5.32%)
Enfield Southgate represented 35.70% / 35.58% / 35.58% of non-postal Enfield votes for the 3 sections respectively.
Glancing at the detailed results it’s rather suggestive that in Enfield North the Tories won every ward in all 3 sections in the London 2008 elections, but in this seat Labour managed to win a ward (Bowes) in the mayoralty section and 2 wards out of 7 (Bowes & Palmers Green) in both the list and constituency sections.
My prediction for this seat;
Cons 22500
Labour 16000
Lib Dem 5000
Green 2000
Others 1000
I was still up for Portillo; infact as a mature student who should have known better I was up all night attempting to finish a piece of undergraduate work.
I also never want to hear “things will only get better” by D:Ream ever again.
Looking at the figures I can’t see a Twigg surprise being repeated here next time. The Conservatives to have an appx 6k majority I reckon if the present circumstances remain.
Twiggs victory in 2001 was surprising. Not so much the fact he held on but the size of his majority – far larger than Enfield North.
In many ways DB’s defeat of him in 2005 was as good a sea change for the Tories in that seat as 1997 (and 2001) had been for Labour. The 2001 Labour majority would have suggested a seat that would have been very hard for the Conservatives to regain in 2005.
Times article from Friday December 14th 1984 on Enfield Southgate by-election:
“Southgate held by Tories as Labour loses its deposit
By Julian Haviland, Political Editor
The Government retained the Enfield Southgate parliamentary seat in yesterday’s by-election with a greatly reduced but reasonably comfortable margin, holding off a strong challenge from the Liberal and Social Democrat Alliance.
Lifelong Tories deserted in their thousands, with the purpose made plain from the start of demonstrating their impatience with the Government. Happily for Mr Michael Portillo, the young Conservative victor, most of the malcontents seem to have stayed at home rather than vote for the Liberal, Mr Tim Slack.
Mr Peter Hamid, Labour’s flagbearer, had little chance of saving his deposit after his natural supporters began to move behind the Alliance, sensing that only Mr Slack would have the strength, as he repeatedly told them, to beat the Tories.
The vacancy arose through the death in the Brighton bombing, at the height of the Conservative conference last October, of Sir Anthony Berry, the member for 20 years.
Sir Anthony was well known and genuinely liked in the constituency. His murder was much in voters’ minds, and may well account for the fact that his bumper majority of 15,799 did not vanish entirely.
Mr Portillo, whose manner had betrayed little of the anxiety which racked the Conservatives throughout the brief campaign, showed his delight when the result was declared early this morning.
He now has a gilt-edged seat within a few miles of Westminster which is probably his for life.
Mr Portillo, who is 31, is a politician to his core, for whom his seniors and contemporaries foretell an exceptional future. A former member of the Conservative Research Department, he has been adviser to a number of senior Ministers including, most recently, the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
His opponents naturally attacked him as the Chancellor’s man, worthy of blame for all the privations of the Treasury’s present regime.
But his greatest problem was to survive the murderous enfilade from Sir Keith Joseph, with his proposal, withdrawn in the nick of time, to make parents contribute to student’s tuition fees.
He contrived without disloyalty to show his doubts about Sir Keith’s ideas, and later claim a share of the credit for persuading him to change his mind.
Mr Slack’s achievement was considerable. His inheritance in votes from the general election was only two fifths of Mr Portillo’s. He was an outsider, with a makeshift organization. He had only 17 days from his adoption to make himself known to an electorate for whom the notion that the Tories might be thrown out was wholly unfamiliar.
But Mr Slack, a former headmaster, 56 years old, proved a lively campaigner.”
I don’t know if it’s just me, but looking at old articles in The Times online archive, the standard of writing appears to be a lot higher than today.
They do seem well written articles.
Did Labour retain second here in 1983?
I think not.
The “Alliance” wasn’t doing very well in 1984, so this was certainly a poor Labour result.
The “Alliance” revived somewhat in 1985, mainly at the expense of the Conservatives.