Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
2005 Results:
Conservative: 16141 (36.2%)
Labour: 14403 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9046 (20.3%)
SNP: 4075 (9.1%)
Other: 951 (2.1%)
Majority: 1738 (3.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Dumfries.
2001 Result
Conservative: 11996 (28.2%)
Labour: 20830 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4955 (11.6%)
SNP: 4103 (9.6%)
Other: 702 (1.6%)
Majority: 8834 (20.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13885 (28%)
Labour: 23528 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5487 (11.1%)
SNP: 5977 (12.1%)
Referendum: 533 (1.1%)
Other: 117 (0.2%)
Majority: 9643 (19.5%)
No Boundary Changes
Profile: A large, rural constituency in the southern uplands of Scotland. To the south it is bounded by the Solway Firth and England in the form of Penrith and the Borders. Most of the seat is unpopulated hills and mountains, most of the towns are small settlements of only a few thousand that have historically relied upon the wool trade from surrounding hill farms. The main settlements include Sanquhar, Annan on the Solway Firth – until 2007 the site of Chapelcross nuclear power station, Gretna Green with it’s marriage industry, Langholm, Moffat, Biggar, Peebles, Innerleithen and Lockerbie – now infamous for the 1988 plane bombing.
Since 2005 this has been the only Conservative held seat in Scotland.
Current MP: David Mundell (Con) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Aileen Orr (SNP) born 1953. Educated at Lockerbie Academy. Political lobbyist and former banker. Contested Roxburgh and Berwickshire & South of Scotland list in 2007 Scottish elections. Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2005.
Claudia Beamish (Labour) Daughter of Sir Tufton Beamish, former Conservative MP for Lewes. Teacher. Contested South of Scotland list 1999, 2003, 2007.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81547
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 24.3%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 68.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.4%
Owner-Occupied: 63.6%
Social Housing: 22.4% (Council: 18.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
A Tory hold seems likely, but with some of the constituency gains for the SNP we saw in the European Elections, I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished third, behind the Lib Dems.
Let’s hope I’m wrong.
The Liberal Democrats once had a majority of seats on Annandale & Eskdale District Council (Eastern Dumfriesshire) and also ought to be strong in Tweeddale/ Peeblesshire.
It would be in many ways bad for them to finish fourth, and such a result would place doubt on them retaining the new Midlothian South & Peebles Holyrood divison (or whatever it is called) in 2011.
TAM / OSCAR Don’t underestimate the Liberals here. David Steel’s daughter may re engage the lost generation of Liberal votes in DCT.
Whilst I agree Mundell should hold it I would be placing the LD in a strong second. Catriona Bhatia is a well respected Borders councillor and will give Mundell a good run for his money especially in Peebles. My prediction 8 months out – Mundell Holds, Lib Dems take 2nd.
Au contraire Tam, the SNP should benefit from having a strong SNP Holyrood presence across the constituency with MSP’s Aileen Campbell, Christine Graham and Mike Russell and their very active constituency support, she could could push the SNP into 2nd place behind Mundell…
Libertas, Catriona Bhatia’s handling of the education brief has left a lot to be desired particularly in Lib Dem strongholds like peebles, hence her recent relinquishing of the post…