Dumfries and Galloway
2005 Results:
Labour: 20924 (41.1%)
Conservative: 18002 (35.4%)
SNP: 6182 (12.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4259 (8.4%)
Other: 1524 (3%)
Majority: 2922 (5.7%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Galloway and Upper Nithsdale.
2001 Result
Conservative: 12222 (34%)
Labour: 7258 (20.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 3698 (10.3%)
SNP: 12148 (33.8%)
Other: 588 (1.6%)
Majority: 74 (0.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12825 (30.5%)
Labour: 6861 (16.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2700 (6.4%)
SNP: 18449 (43.9%)
Referendum: 428 (1%)
Other: 755 (1.8%)
Majority: 5624 (13.4%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: Russell Brown (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Peter Duncan (Conservative) MP for Galloway and Upper Nithsdale 2001-2005
Andrew Wood (SNP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95724
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 25.4%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 69.5%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 39.1%
Owner-Occupied: 64.1%
Social Housing: 21.1% (Council: 17.5%, Housing Ass.: 3.7%)
Privately Rented: 9.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
“Conservative seats in Scotland in 2010, ranked by probability:
Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale & Tweedale
Dumfries & Galloway
East Renfrewshire
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh South
Stirling
Argyle & Bute
Perth & North Perthshire
Aberdeen South
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
Of these 11 I think 6 or 7 would be a really good night.”
I would include Angus as well, the Westminster seat is much better for the Tories than the Holyrood seat. It would rank in with Perth & North Perthshire. I would also include Ochil & South Perthshire as a bottom of the list longshot (where the Conservatives should at least beat Labour).
Interesting to compare those with the 11 seats the Tories won in 1992:
1. Eastwood, (maj: 22.7% over Lab) – {now East Renfrewshire}
2. Dumfries, (13.1% over Lab)
3. Edinburgh Pentlands, (9.6% over Lab)
4. Tayside North, (9.2% over SNP)
6. Kincardine & Deeside, (8.6% over LD)
7. Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, (5.6% over SNP)
5. Perth & Kinross, (4.2% over SNP)
8. Aberdeen South, (3.7% over Lab)
9. Edinburgh West, (1.8% over LD)
10. Stirling, (1.5% over Lab)
11. Ayr, (0.2% over Lab)
Seats the Tories were closest to winning in 1992 include:
1. Gordon, (0.5%, LD)
2. Angus, (2.0%, SNP)
3. Renfrew West and Inverclyde, (3.7%, Lab)
4. Edinburgh Central, (5.4%, Lab)
5. Moray, (6.2%, SNP)
6. Strathkelvin & Bearsden, (6.3%, Lab)
7. Cunninghame North, (6.9%, Lab)
8. Argyll & Bute, (7.2%, Lab)
9. Fife North East, (7.9%, LD)
10. Banff & Buchan, (8.9%, SNP)
11. Edinburgh South, (9.4%, Lab)
All those seats comprise the 21 seats the Tories won in 1983 except for Gordon which the Liberal/Alliance notionally won from the Tories in 1983 by 850 votes (1.9%).
This seat should go Conservative. The Labour vote will drop dramatically and the split between them and the SNP should ensure a reasonable Conservative majority , I would say about 3,000. Conservative voters will be much more motivated and they Conservatives have the rural areas tied up and a popular candidate , albeit he didn’t manage to win it last time. Labour will find it difficult to get their vote out in Dumfries and Stranraer and I think alot of the Liberal vote will go Conservative.
Andy,
Don’t forget that in 1992 that was 11/72 or 15.3%.
To be looking at up to 11 seats from the current 59 would give 18.6% of total – similar ratio to 1992 would be 9 seats.
RMMGLAS – I wouldn’t be so sure here. There are many locals in D&G who see Peter Duncan as an opportunist politician.Don’t assume that the Liberal vote will go to the tories – It won’t. Russel Brown, a decent ex dupont local man, will get every house in Dumfries out. Dumfries is Duncan’s Achilles heel and until he tackles Dumfries it shouldn’t be assumed he has this one in the bag. My prediction 8 months out – BROWN HOLDS – just.
Libertas, I agree that Peter Duncan is seen as an opportunist waiting to get back on the expenses gravy train ( he has retained his flat in London). However, I think he will hold on for the win, with Labour and SNP very close for 2nd. By far the most active has been Andrew Wood who has been campaigning in the 1997 SNP strongholds, Stranraer, Galloway and has even made inroads into the Labour heartland of Lincluden and Lochside. Knocking doors is making dividends.