Brighton Pavilion
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17162 (37.5%)
Conservative: 10639 (23.2%)
Green: 9457 (20.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7414 (16.2%)
Other: 1115 (2.4%)
Majority: 6523 (14.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10397 (23.9%)
Labour: 15427 (35.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7171 (16.5%)
Green: 9530 (21.9%)
UKIP: 508 (1.2%)
Other: 506 (1.2%)
Majority: 5030 (11.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10203 (25.1%)
Labour: 19846 (48.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5348 (13.1%)
UKIP: 361 (0.9%)
Green: 3806 (9.3%)
Other: 1159 (2.8%)
Majority: 9643 (23.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13556 (27.7%)
Labour: 26737 (54.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4644 (9.5%)
Referendum: 1304 (2.7%)
Other: 2710 (5.5%)
Majority: 13181 (26.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: David Lepper(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Nancy Platts (Labour) Professional campaigner. Former director of the Maternity Alliance, having previously worked for the TSSA and Daycare Trust.
Andrew Falconer (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Careers advisor and former Parliamentary researcher.
Caroline Lucas (Green) born 1960, Malvern. Educated at the University of Exter. Former communications officer and advisor for Oxfam. Oxfordshire county councillor 1993-1997. Green MEP for South East England since 1999. Principle Speaker for the Green party from 2003-2006.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91162
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 17.2%
Over 60: 17.4%
Born outside UK: 11.1%
White: 94.2%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.8%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 54.1%
Jewish: 0.8%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 13.5%
Graduates 16-74: 33.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 17.8%
Owner-Occupied: 62.8%
Social Housing: 11.2% (Council: 7.1%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 22.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.7%
That’s a good poster James. The writing could do with being a bit bigger, but otherwise I think the Greens could be on to something with that.
As to whether Labour will get a conference bounce in the polls, I very much doubt it. In common with many of his budget speeches Brown’s conference speech began to fall apart when subjected to minimal scrutiny. Most of the conference speeches seem to have been done with the intention of shoring up Labour’s core rather than appealing to floating voter’s. Making out that Tories are bad people who do bad things to the country on purpose is not an election winning strategy. Other than some Labour or Lib Dem groupies people simply don’t believe it.
The PopulusHome poll of marginal’s (Anthony’s own magnificent poll) predicts that the Greens will take this seat. Albeit the sample wiil be approximately 140.
Incidentally, this poll predicts the Tories would take Norwich South, so this would probably be the only Green gain.