Blaenau Gwent
2005 Results:
Independent: 20505 (58.2%)
Labour: 11384 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 1511 (4.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 843 (2.4%)
Conservative: 816 (2.3%)
Other: 20697 (58.7%)
Majority: 9313 (26.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 2383 (7.5%)
Labour: 22855 (72%)
Liberal Democrat: 2945 (9.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 3542 (11.2%)
Majority: 19313 (60.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 2607 (6.6%)
Labour: 31493 (79.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3458 (8.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 2072 (5.2%)
Majority: 28035 (70.7%)
No Boundary Changes
Profile: Traditionally a solid, south wales mining seat, seeped in Labour tradition. It is the successor seat to Ebbw Vale, represented by Nye Bevan and Michael Foot, and until recently was assumed to be amongst the most solid Labour seats in the country, with opposition parties normally struggling to get over 10% of the vote. The main towns are Abertilley, Brynmawr, Ebbw Vale, Tredegar. The coal mines are now long gone and in 2002 the Corus steel plant here closed, causing further economic hardship.
In 2005 it was, in what must count as one of the most surprising results of the election, won by Peter Law, standing as an independent candidate. Law was the Labour member of the Welsh assembly for the seat and an ally of Llew Smith, the left-wing Labour MP who stood down at the 2005 election. Llew Smith’s replacement, Maggie Jones, who was selected from an all-woman shortlist – something which Smith believed was used to block the selection of a non-Blairite male candidate. Law ran despite suffering from a brain tumour and died less than a year after his election. His agent Dai Davies successfully defended the seat in the ensuing by-election, with his widow Trish Law managing to hold his seat in the Welsh election.
Current MP: Dai Davies (Independent) born 1959, Blaenau Gwent. Former electrician at Corus steel works and shop steward. Leader of the Blaenau Gwent People’s Voice Group, the party set up by supporters of Peter Law. Agent for Peter Law in the 2005 general election, first elected as MP for Blaenau Gwent in the 2006 by-election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Nick Smith (Labour) Former Labour party official and NSPCC Campaigns manager. Former Camden councillor.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70064
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 24%
Over 60: 22.2%
Born outside UK: 1.1%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 64.2%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 9.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 45%
Owner-Occupied: 62.6%
Social Housing: 28.9% (Council: 24.3%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 6.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.7%
2006 By-election
The Blaneau Gwent by-election was held on the 29th June following the death of independent MP Peter Law. It was successfully held by his agent at the general election, Dai Davies.
By-election result
Dai Davies (Independent) 12543 (46.2%)
Owen Smith (Labour) 10059 (37.0%)
Steffan Lewis (Plaid Cymru) 1755 (6.5%)
Amy Kitcher (Liberal Democrat) 1477 (5.4%)
Margrit Williams (Conservative) 1013 (3.7%)
Alan Hope (Loony) 318 (1.2%)
Majority 2484 (9.2%)
By-election candidates:Dai Davies (Independent) born 1959, Blaenau Gwent. Former electrician at Corus steel works and shop steward. Leader of the Blaenau Gwent People’s Voice Group, the party set up by supporters of Peter Law. Agent for Peter Law in the 2005 general election.
Alan Hope (Offical Monster Raving Loony) born Mytchett. Publican. Leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party since 1999. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury by-election 1999, Kensington and Chelsea by-election 1999, Brent East by-election 2003, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Aldershot 2005.
Amy Kitcher (Liberal Democrat) born 1981, Merthyr. Educated at Vaynor and Penyderyn High School and Aston University. Assistant to Mike German AM.
Steffan Lewis (Plaid Cymru) born 1985. Educated at Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllyw and Cardiff University. Student.
Owen Smith (Labour) born 1970. Former journalist. Head of government relations for Pfizer. Former Special advisor to Paul Murphy.
Margrit Williams (Conservative) born 1964. Educated at Southend High School for Girls and London Guildhall University. Researcher for Sir Malcolm Rifkind. Wandsworth councillor 1990-1994. Contested Blaenau Gwent 1997, 2005.
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Whoever is the Official Labour candidate here is on a hiding to nothing. He is expected to take the seat, but with the electorate in its current mood (and thanks for the local report Neil) is unlikely to suceed. In fact, it may be kindest if they have selected somebody who can go away afterwards if he loses and forget all about it.
I am not so convinced Labour would get back in even after a term of Conservative Government. Dai Davies should be well settled as incumbent by then, and Welsh electors are not ageist. Above all, the Tory vote having reached the giddy heights of 7.5% in 2001, there is no chance that a split “Labour” vote will let the Conservatives in.
My only caveat would be if real dirt came out about the MPs expenses – I’ve no reason to believe it should. But even then I rather suspect that Welsh voters would take the Ian Gibson line that things come out against MPs who have been targeted from within Westminster.
The 2004 elections were joint local and euro elections, hence the much higher actual vote and of course turnout (45% in 2004 compared to 27.25 in 2009). The 2004 elections were before the 2005 Labour splintering.
In 2009, despite Labour taking a kicking across Wales, Labour in Blaenau Gwent easily topped the poll this time, gaining 35% of the vote, the nearest other party were Plaid Cymru at just 15%. Next best were UKIP at 14.5%. The Conservatives were fourth at 9%, whilst the Lib Dems got 6.5%.
In the 2009 Euros there was no Peoples Voice Party on the ballot so a direct comparison isn’t possible, but tellingly, at 4,996 votes for Labour in BG, this was the third highest contribution to the Labour vote for the whole of Wales – just behind the traditional Labour strongholds of Rhondda and Neath.
Importantly, the Peoples Voice wheels seem to be coming off their bus as shown above, as the % support for the other opposition parties has gone up markedly. In the Dai Davies by election Plaid Cymru polled 6.5%, the Lib Dems were at 5.4%, whilst the Conservatives got just 3.7%. So, the more than doubling of % support for the opposition parties means the Peoples Voice cannot rely on a big anti labour coalition to help them next time. If anything, Labour may benefit from an anti Tory coalition as the possibility of a Conservative led regime at Westminster takes hold…..
All of this, together with his Peoples Voice Party helping run an unpopular local Council, won’t be good for Dai Davies’ morale. It’s rumoured locally that he always wanted to be the Assembly member anyway.
Alan Hope looks as though he is a colourful character! The result will be worthwhile watching on the TV
Adding to your debate on the candidate
I’ve met the Labour candidate a number of times over the years and think he’d be well received on the doorstep.
Smith is a local bloke made good who went to the comp. school in Tredegar and has a big family in the constituency, who all worked either in local collieries or in steel making at Ebbw Vale.
Could this seat be the only Labour gain next year?
Independent candidates who have in effect split from a major party historically find it difficult to hang on long-term. Lookig nationally Dai Davies does not seem to have made a big impact at Westminster. And voters in South Wales seats do take account of things like the competence of supporters on the local council. On the other hand, the Independents here have quite a large majority as a cushion, and in the country generally there is a mood to punish Labour at the ballot box. The local reports that have been posted challenge my precious suggestion that Dai Davies will hold on.
This seat is far from an easy prediction between Labour and Independent.
I don’t think Blaenau Gwent will return to Labour in 2010, there is too much of an anti Labour feeling. Talking on the ground in Blaenau Gwent and you’ll soon find that people’s voice/ independents are quietly confident about the General Election.
They are however more concerned about the Assembly election in 2011 as the former Mayor of the Borough has put her name forward for selection for Labour the only one they are regarding as a threat!
So with that Kind of confidence Labour should be worried!
Regarding recent comments about Dai Davies and any effect the expenses coverage may have on his electoral chances, I think this is difficult to read.
Locally. we’ve all noticed the coverage in the letters page of the Gwent Gazette about him claiming £350+ per month MPs food allowance in the summer months, despite Parliament not sitting. However, compared to the audacity of getting us all to pay for the cleaning of a moat, this may be thought of as small beer.
On the other hand, this does leave Davies open to ’says one thing, does another’ criticism, and he’ll be teased in the valleys for sure about ‘who ate the pies’. This is just the sort of thing which may well send previous supporters of his anti labour coalition back to their original political homes, leaving him high and dry.
I have to disagree, Dai Davies hold easily, no way are we voting for Gordon Brown’s Labour.
Frederic,
Difficult to say whether this one will be a Labour gain – I suspect it will, but it wont be the only one. They will also take Glasgow East and Bethnal Green & Bow.