Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17886 (46.9%)
Conservative: 14346 (37.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4455 (11.7%)
Other: 1446 (3.8%)
Majority: 3540 (9.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15558 (35.9%)
Labour: 20620 (47.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5533 (12.8%)
UKIP: 1579 (3.6%)
Majority: 5062 (11.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15889 (37.3%)
Labour: 21610 (50.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4132 (9.7%)
UKIP: 950 (2.2%)
Majority: 5721 (13.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19105 (35.5%)
Labour: 28051 (52.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4600 (8.6%)
Referendum: 1704 (3.2%)
Other: 288 (0.5%)
Majority: 8946 (16.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Joan Humble(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Paul Maynard (Conservative) Educated at St Ambrose College, Trafford and Oxford University. Former CCO researcher, currently Special Advisor to Liam Fox MP. Contested Twickenham in 2005.
Roy Hopwood (UKIP) Contested Blackpool North and Fleetwood 2005. Contested North West Region in 2004 European elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82314
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 20.5%
Over 60: 28.3%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 98.5%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79.7%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 12%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.1%
Owner-Occupied: 76.2%
Social Housing: 9.6% (Council: 7.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 11.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 14.6%
Let’s not get too upset about pranks..the fact is that Labour will be ‘humbled’ in this constituency at the next election!!
The swing the Tories need to win this seat is less than half that indicated by current opinion polls. I would no longer describe it as being in the “critical zone”: the tidal wave has gone further inland.
My comment about high-speed lines not reaching places like Blackppol still applies. Blackpool may have trams, and Preston high-speed trains, but if there is to be an efficient, energy-efficient, transport system adequate, electric powered, links are needed between the two. Blackpool’s decline due to becoming a transport backwater is a potentially vote-changing political issue.
The Tory candidate’s lack of career background outside the Westminster village is a potential issue, although given the current state of political opinion it is unlikely to cost him the seat.
Ladbrokes:
Con 1/7
Lab 4/1
LD 100/1
I think this seat will be no problem for the Tories. They need to put most of their resources into Blackpool South which will be pretty close.