Beverley and Holderness
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20335 (40.6%)
Labour: 17727 (35.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9711 (19.4%)
Other: 2322 (4.6%)
Majority: 2609 (5.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 20434 (40.7%)
Labour: 17854 (35.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 9578 (19.1%)
UKIP: 2336 (4.7%)
Majority: 2580 (5.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19168 (41.3%)
Labour: 18387 (39.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 7356 (15.9%)
UKIP: 1464 (3.2%)
Majority: 781 (1.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21629 (40.9%)
Labour: 20818 (39.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9689 (18.3%)
Other: 806 (1.5%)
Majority: 811 (1.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: The eastern part of the East Riding of Yorkshire, covering the rural hinterland of Hull, the traditional market town of Beverley to the north and then out to the east Yorkshire coast and the rural villages and farmland of Holderness. Outside Beverley itself this is mostly agricultural, particularly pig farming, though there is also some industrial development inclding gas terminals on the North sea coast and the Salt End chemical works and power plant on the Humber estuary, close to the boundary with Hull.
The seat and its predecessor Beverley were both consistently Conservative seats, but by 2001 it had become one of their most narrowly held seats. As the outgoing MP James Cran neared retirement he was pilloried by opponents as being inactive and nicknamed “the invisible Cran” – there was a possibility for a surprise Labour gain here, but in the end it was retained by the new Conservative candidate, Graham Stuart.
Current MP: Graham Stuart(Con) born 1962, Carlisle. Educated at Gelnalmond College and Cambridge University. Founded and now chairs and publishing business. Cambridge councillor 1998-2004. Contested Cambridge 2001. MP for Beverley & Holderness 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Ian Saunders (Labour) Sheffield councillor.
John Beacroft-Mitchell (Liberal Democrat) born 1976. Educated at Beverley Grammar School and the University of Sheffield. publisher
Jane Collins (UKIP) UKIP regional organiser.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95260
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 21.7%
Over 60: 23%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.9%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 19.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.1%
Owner-Occupied: 78.6%
Social Housing: 11.1% (Council: 8.9%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.7%
The 1992 notional result for this seat was;
Con 29,800 54.5%
Lib Dem 13,483 25.3%
Lab 10,981 20.1%
In 1997 the Labour share of the vote increased by 19.2%, while the Lib Dem’s fell by 7.0%.
When I was a student in Hull I recall the new seat was formed from 7 Humberside county seats – 4 Holderness seats (2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab and 1 Con) and 3 Beverley seats (2 Con and 1 Lab). The Labour Party held Beverley Minster and Holderness South (with Spurn Point) while the Liberals held 2 Holderness seats and also came close in Beverley St Mary’s.
Although Labour had two pockets of support but I was really suprised when in 1997 Labour came second.
I think Labour will just hang onto second place next time -
Conservative: 23000
Labour: 13000
Liberal Democrat: 12000
Other: 2000
Majority: 10000
Why is South Holderness more favourable to Labour (although they didn’t hold it in 2007)?
South Holderness is more favourable to Labour due to the town of Withernsea, which has the air of a town in decline. It is a rough place.
I stayed at Withernsea for a short break about a decade ago. I didn’t think much of the town itself either despite its lighthouse, but the main attraction is Spurn Point which is a litle further south.
Thanks Jack/Votedave, and Peter.
I’m now rather intrigued to go and have a look.
Have pencilled in another day in Haltemprice & Howden – as DD needs the turnout – will try to get out to these parts quickly aswell.
It is interesting that Votedave stayed in Withernsea as I see that his home constituency is Bradford.
I grew up in Hornsea (in North Holderness). Hornsea is more upmarket than Withernsea and has better attractions (at the time it had the Hornsea Pottery which is now a retail park, it has Hornsea Mere and some large indoor markets, nicer beaches). However, it was always seen as the favoured destination for ‘Wessies’ – that is the local slang for people from West Yorkshire. On the other hand, Withernsea was seen as a place that people from Hull went on holiday. To many people, despite being 15miles away from Hull, Withernsea is Hull-by-the-sea.
I always assumed that this had something to do with the social demographics in the area. As people migrated and retired to the coast, the people of West Yorkshire are more Tory inclined than the people from Hull who continue to move into Withernsea and surrounding area.
As for Spurn Point – if you aren’t into bird watching, I wouldn’t bother!
“Wessy” is indeed the vernacular for West Yorkshiremen in this part of the world. Similarly, a friend from Cleethorpes informed me that South Yorkshire folk are known in Northern Lincolnshire as “comforts” as they “come for t’day”
Why does a lazy Sheffield Councillor think he can win here?
Well if the UKIP loses votes, then this should benefit the Conservatives.Given the state of the polls maybe they can get 50% of the vote.Or am I being too optimistic?
I’d be interested to see the General Election result here when it comes.
Only two years ago, it was possible to envisage a long term trend to Labour and another very close result.
I wonder what the underlying position would now be.
2010
Most likely
*Con 24,704 46.9% +6.3%
Lab 16,804 31.9% -3.5%
LD 8,270 15.7% -3.7%
UKIP 2,897 5.5%
Total votes 52,675
C majority 7,900 15.0% (+9.8%)
Swing 4.9% from Lab to C
C hold
Not particularly large changes in that prediction.
I think there is a long term swing to Labour in this seat which will be disguised at the next election.
If a Tory government starts losing support, this could be competitive again.
JJB – not sure whether that’s the case any more (shift to labour). It was true while the coastal towns declined and especially Withernsea. But these communities are declining in population terms relative to the increasingly prosperous fringes of Hull.
The bedrock of labour support lies in those retirees from West Yorkshire who moved into the relatively cheaper property here. This population is not being replaced as the housing is (quite literally) disappearing!