Wyre Forest
Notional 2005 Results:
KHHC: 18739 (38.9%)
Conservative: 14165 (29.4%)
Labour: 10939 (22.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 178 (0.4%)
Other: 4167 (11.2%)
Majority: 4574 (9.5%)
Actual 2005 result
KHHC: 18739 (39.9%)
Conservative: 13489 (28.7%)
Labour: 10716 (22.8%)
Liberal: 2666 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1074 (2.3%)
Loony: 303 (0.6%)
Majority: 5250 (11.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9350 (19.1%)
Labour: 10857 (22.1%)
UKIP: 368 (0.8%)
KHHC: 28487 (58.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19897 (36.1%)
Labour: 26843 (48.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4377 (8%)
Referendum: 1956 (3.6%)
Other: 1982 (3.6%)
Majority: 6946 (12.6%)
Boundary changes: Wyre Forest becomes entirely coterminous with Wyre Forest district council. This involves gaining the rural Rock ward and a small part of Bewdley and Arley ward from
Profile: Wyre Forest mainly consists of the industrial town of Kidderminister, a centre for the carpet industry, but also includes Stourport and Bewdley and outlying villages.
Politically the seat is unusual. It would probably be a Conservative/Labour marginal but in 2001 it was won by an Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern candidate, Dr Richard Taylor, on the back of a campaign against the closure of the casualty unit at Kidderminister hospital. Taylor managed to retain the seat at the 2005 election, though Health Concern`s representation on the local council has fallen from it`s pre-2004 heights. In both general elections the Liberal Democrats did not put up a candidate and supported Dr Taylor. Prior to the last election Simon Hughes indicated that this deal was for that election only and that there will be a Liberal democrat candidate in Wyre Forest at the next election.
Wyre Forest is also one of the few areas (see also Liverpool West Derby and Exeter) where the continuing Liberal party retain significant strength. Prior to the 2001 election the Liberals provided the council leader as part of a “rainbow coalition”.
Current MP: Richard Taylor(Independent Kidderminister Hospital and Health Concern) born 1934. Educated at the Leys Schools and Cambridge University. Taylor is a medial doctor and prior to his election in 2001 was a Consultant at Kidderminster hospital. While Dr Taylor does not take any party whip, figures on the Public Whip suggest that Taylor tends to vote along the same lines as the Liberal Democrats (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Mark Garnier (Conservative) born 1963, London. Educated at Charterhouse. Fund manager. Forest of Dean councillor from 2003-2007. Contested Wyre Forest in 2005.
Nigel Knowles (Labour) born 1946. Educated at King Charles I Grammar and Birmingham Polytechnic. Author. Former Haringey councillor and Wyre Forest District Councillor. Worcestershire councty councillor. Contested Bodmin 1979, Hastings 1983, Wyre Forest 1987, 1992, Wiltshire North 1997, Ludlow 2001, 2005.
Neville Farmer (Liberal Democrat) Educated at King Charles I school. Journalist and television producer.
Kate Spohrer (Green) born Staffordshire. Educated at Wolverhampton University. Former local government worker and author of a book on ADHD. Contested Staffordshire South 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96981
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 22.4%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 98.2%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79.4%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 15.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.6%
Owner-Occupied: 76.1%
Social Housing: 14.8% (Council: 6.8%, Housing Ass.: 8.1%)
Privately Rented: 6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
Lib Dem vote was 8% in 1997 so you have another 50% of voters to account for. Clearly the changes in party support from 1997 to 2001 tell part of the story:
Lab -26.7
Con -17.0
LD -8.0
Oth -6.4
There was a relatively small fall in turnout so it looks like the largest source of Dr Taylors vote in 2001 was people who had previously voted Labour. Iain’s argument falls down though because they were 1997 Labour voters (ie floating voters who had only switched to the party then) – not the core party vote of the type that is likely to return now. Iain may yet be unaware but the political climate for Labour is a little different to what it was in 1997.
I’m afraid that I have to state that Iain’s prediction i.e. a close run between Labour and the Conservatives is realistic!
I think the KHHC will loose this seats to the Conservatives. My prediction:
1st Conservative
2nd Labour
3rd KHHC
The Labour lead here in 1997 was very similar to its national lead and was achieved on a near 15% swing.
In 1983 and 1987 Labour had under 20% of the vote here which together with the 2001 and 2005 results gives some indication as to how low the Labour core vote actually is in this constituency.