Watford
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16571 (33.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15421 (31.2%)
Conservative: 14630 (29.6%)
Other: 2757 (5.6%)
Majority: 1151 (2.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14634 (29.6%)
Labour: 16575 (33.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15427 (31.2%)
Green: 1466 (3%)
UKIP: 1292 (2.6%)
Majority: 1148 (2.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15437 (33.3%)
Labour: 20992 (45.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 8088 (17.4%)
UKIP: 535 (1.2%)
Green: 900 (1.9%)
Other: 420 (0.9%)
Majority: 5555 (12%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19227 (34.8%)
Labour: 25019 (45.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9272 (16.8%)
Referendum: 1484 (2.7%)
Other: 234 (0.4%)
Majority: 5792 (10.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Claire Ward(Labour) born 1972, North Shields. Educated at Loreto College and Hertfordshire University. First elected as MP for Watford in 1997. Government whip since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Richard Harrington (Conservative) born 1957, Leeds. Educated at Leeds Grammar School and Oxford University. Founder of a property development company and former Managing Director then Chairman of a holiday resort development company. Chairman of Conservative Friends of Israel.
Sal Brinton (Liberal Democrat) born 1955. Educated at Benenden and Cambridge University. Company director. Former BBC floor manager and Bursar of Selwyn College, Cambridge. Cambridgshire County Councillor 1993-2004. Contested Cambridgshire South East 1997, 2001, Watford 2005.
Barry Newton (UKIP) Educated at Cradley, West Midlands and Cadbury Day College. Retailer. Contested Hemel Hempstead 2001, 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 102019
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 18%
Born outside UK: 12.7%
White: 87.5%
Black: 2.3%
Asian: 7.3%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 1%
Christian: 67.6%
Hindu: 1.8%
Jewish: 1.3%
Muslim: 5.1%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 22.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.7%
Owner-Occupied: 74.6%
Social Housing: 15.8% (Council: 13.4%, Housing Ass.: 2.5%)
Privately Rented: 7.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
Sadly I think this will be the result here.
The Tories have had poor organisation even before the damage from Oakley, and it was going to lag any swing anyway.
Labour I’m afraid will fall into third place.
But I think this will probably be the only Lib Dem gain in the whole country (using notional results).
LD 35.3% +4.1%
Con 28.9% -0.7%
*Lab 28.4% -5.2%
Green 4.3%
UKIP 3.1%
Lib Dem gain from Lab
There is a reasonable chance, however, of the Tories gaining this seat, on the national swing having an effect, but I’d have to say less likely than the scenario above.
Joe James – I would expect a Lib Dem gain here and wonder if the margin could be greater, assuming this story is true;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/24/lord-ashcroft-adair-turner