Torbay
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18995 (41.7%)
Conservative: 16240 (35.6%)
Labour: 6684 (14.7%)
Other: 3645 (8%)
Majority: 2755 (6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17288 (36.5%)
Labour: 6972 (14.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 19317 (40.8%)
UKIP: 3726 (7.9%)
Majority: 2029 (4.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17307 (36.4%)
Labour: 4484 (9.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 24015 (50.5%)
UKIP: 1512 (3.2%)
Other: 251 (0.5%)
Majority: 6708 (14.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21082 (39.5%)
Labour: 7923 (14.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 21094 (39.6%)
Other: 3223 (6%)
Majority: 12 (0%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Adrian Sanders(Lib Dem) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Marcus Wood (Conservative)
David Pedrick-Friend (Labour) Contested Torbay 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95291
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 20.2%
Over 60: 28%
Born outside UK: 4.1%
White: 98.7%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 75.8%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.8%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 7.4% (Council: 1.5%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 17.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.7%
David Pedrick-Friend has been selected for Labour here.
ladbrokes prices:
Cons 1/2
LD 6/4
Becca Adams the Torbay Tory Groups’ research officer has ‘resigned’ after giving a statement to the Standards Committee about a Tory Councillor.
Ladbrokes odds now Con 2/5 LD 7/4 Lab 100/1 UKIP 100/1
Really good value potential for a bet on the Lib Dems here in my opinion, they hold the seat after all
Didn’t a poll in the Herald Express give Adrian a commanding lead. He has a strong personal following in the bay.
Lord Truscott is in the news today, (including the BBC News website).
I seem to recognise him as the same person who contested Torbay for Labour in 1992. I remember this because that was the very first declaration I ever watched. I hadn’t realised he went on to become MEP for Hertfordshire from 1994-99.
Expenses fiasco must help Lib Dems here?
This seat will depend on what the Labour voters decide to do. Due to tactical voting Adrian Sanders increased his majority once before. If Labour voters rally to him in 2010 he could be saved.
Mike, the seat will depend not only on how many Labour voters support the LibDems tactically, but also on how many former LibDems move to the Conservatives now the Tories are more popular. It is difficult to tell without detailed knowledge of the seat how such “churn” in the LibDem vote will work out.
When there has been in general a swing from the LibDems to the Tories, there has been in the past a tendency for the pundits to predict LibDem losses that do not eventuate e,g, because of the incumbency effect.
I think UKIP polled their highest share in Torbay in the Euro elections with 34.4%.