Thomas Byrne uses his first article for ConservativeHome to urge that Britain's Trident nuclear deterrent is properly replaced. He blogs here.
There is no alternative to Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles for the UK. Land based silos or mobile launchers (whether vehicle or rail based) are too easily fixed targets and we don't have sufficient land mass to ensure their security. Air launch is no more viable than it was when we abandoned it in favour of SLBMs. Some cite cruise missiles as a possible cheaper alternative. What they forget is that cruise missiles have a number of weaknesses: they have a shorter range (Trident: 7,000 miles; Tomahawk: 1,500 miles; Stormshadow 150 miles), reducing the deterrence factor unless you increase the number of launch platforms and position closer to possible targets (thus at greater risk of attack). They are also much slower and therefore at significantly more risk of being shot down (systems capable of doing so are widespread whereas Anti Ballistic Missile defences are very much in their infancy and easily overwhelmed). Since we require a guaranteed capability to strike the target, SLBM remain the best option for the UK.
One option suggested is to end continuous deterrence patrols and only sortie a submarine when a situation occurs. Some extreme proposals suggest we can do away with the capability altogether for the moment and re-acquire it when required. There are a number of flaws in this: first, it assumes that we will have sufficient warning; secondly it ignores how long it takes to develop these systems (the submarines for example take about 15 years, which is why the decision to replace the current class must be taken soon); thirdly, it ignores skillfade, not just in the dockyards but also among the submarine crew who have daily launch drills. Lastly, continuous patrols create ambiguity about our intentions - deploying a submarine in a moment of crisis, on the hand, may represent a clear escalation of the situation by the UK.
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