ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Chris Grayling, the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, has been on the airwaves to give the official Conservative "morning after" reaction to the Glenrothes by-election.

Despite the fact that the party came third and lost its deposit, Mr Grayling has found some crumbs of comfort.

PoliticsHome reports his remarks on the BBC News Channel that the result still gave the Conservatives "a platform" to re-establish themselves in Scotland.

"We've moved from fourth to third and I think we've got a platform to start to build a proper platform in Scotland," he said, rejecting claims that the Union would be damaged by a future Conservative government with little Scottish representation.

"The lesson of the past week is what's taken a dent is Alex Salmond's view that the Union should be broken up," he said.

Alex Salmond's support for Scottish independence had "unravelled enormously during the credit crunch and the banking crisis," he added.

Update - David Cameron has also echoed those remarks on Sky News:

“I’m pleased the Conservatives went from fourth to third, but this was always going to be a battle between Labour and the SNP,” the Tory leader said. “The real loser is the Scottish National Party, and as they want to break up our country and to destroy the union that I’m passionate about, maybe it’s no bad thing that the Salmond bounce has now disappeared.

"The Conservative party is as I say, now establishing itself as the third party in Scotland. That’s progress for us but we’ve still got along way to go,” he added.

Labour's shock hold of Glenrothes at yesterday's by-election - and by a margin of 6,737 votes - came as a something of a surprise to virtually every observer of the contest.

When I set out what was at stake yesterday, few thought a Labour victory possible, let alone likely - and certainly not on that scale.

Whilst the SNP spin is that they have almost halved Labour's majority in the seat and seen their own vote go up, the result must surely mark the end of Alex Salmond's extended honeymoon as Scotland's First Minister. His party started here with a far better infrastructure than in Glasgow East (which they won in July on a swing of over 20 per cent) and the confidence exuded by the SNP campaign all the way until polling day suggests that they too will have been flabbergasted by the extent of Labour's victory, on a swing to the SNP of a mere 5 per cent.

The Conservatives can take some heart from the fact that the party's candidate, Maurice Golden, beat the Liberal Democrat into fourth place, although naturally it was a disappointment to lose our deposit. However, there was always going to be a huge squeeze in this contest and the drop in the Lib Dem vote (down 10 per cent) was far more dramatic than the fall in the Tory vote share (down 3 per cent).

Those with more intimate knowledge of the seat will doubtless provide their analysis of how and why Labour won during the course of the day, but local factors clearly played a part, with the SNP having to defend the actions of the local council, whose leader was their candidate.

But Gordon Brown must be waking up with a smile on his face for the first time in quite a while, presumably seeing the result as a vindication of his own position.

Could it even persuade him to call a general election sooner than we all think?

Editorial comment from Tim Montgomerie:

"All Unionists should be delighted at this setback for the Nationalists. This is a significant bloody nose for Alex Salmond and makes him look foolish for his claims of likely victory.

"Ultimately Conservatives will be pleased that Gordon Brown stays in position. All polling evidence suggests that he is beatable in a General Election and a Brown v Cameron contest will not be one that Tories fear.

"Sometimes local elections and by-elections do turn on local issues and this election saw Labour campaign fiercely and effectively against various charges imposed by the SNP local council. Labour won't have that advantage in a national campaign against the Conservatives."

Today's Glenrothes by-election provides challenges for all the major party leaders.

Most significantly, can Gordon Brown - who was forced to break with convention and campaign as Prime Minister in the seat which neighbours his own - demonstrate that there has been a meaningful bounce in his ratings that will enable Labour to hold on to the seat?

Labour held the seat with a majority of 10,664 in 2005 and it still requires a swing of over 14 per cent for the SNP to snatch it. If Labour cannot hold on here today, it would not bode at all well for their chances of fighting a general election on the basis of being best-placed to handle the economic crisis.

But then the SNP did win previously safe-as-houses Glasgow East from Labour at the by-election earlier in the summer on a swing of over 20 per cent, and they start with an advantage in Glenrothes in that the party already holds the almost identical Fife Central seat in the Scottish Parliament.

It is vital for Alex Salmond that the SNP gains the seat if he is to show that momentum is still with his party north of the border.

The challenge for David Cameron is less signifcant in this contest, which is a clear Labour/SNP fight - and the electorate knows it.

Nonetheless, the party has the challenge of overtaking the Liberal Democrats to take third place - as it did in Glasgow East in July.

Nick Clegg, meanwhile, will be hoping that his party can avoid losing its deposit, as was the case in Glasgow East.