I've never bet on golf in my life, but if I was in Las Vegas this week
I might place a wager on Tiger Woods. At even money, it's the best bet
you'll find at a casino, with a better chance of coming through than
betting on black in roulette. If Woods plays well, he wins. It's that
simple. If he plays OK, he'll probably win. If he plays poorly, then a
handful of other guys have a legitimate shot. Here's how I'd handicap the 2009 U.S. Open.
The Favorite and the Six Who Can Win
Tiger
Woods (even money): Considering Woods won last year on a broken leg,
he's the clear choice to win this year at Bethpage. He's rested, he's
healthy and it's a course he plays well on. I actually can't imagine
Tiger not winning this tournament.
Angel Cabrera (3 to 1): The
forgotten man who happens to be the defending Masters champion and a
former U.S. Open champion. Cabrera hasn't been consistent, but we know
he has all the facets of the game. He's playing at the peak of his
powers and he could be on a three-year run of excellence where he's
going to contend in big events, like Ernie Els and Sandy Lyle did.
Geoff
Ogilvy (3 to 1): Ogilvy has the game and the mentality to win, and he
can putt. He's impervious to all the other stuff that wears guys down
at majors and he can handle a one-on-one situation on Sunday.
Phil
Mickelson (4 to 1): Mickelson is not playing great, but it's a course he
likes in a city that likes him. He'll be the sentimental favorite this
week as he's dealing with his wife's illness. But he'll need something
strange to happen to win, like Tiger losing his driver again. Phil
can't win if Tiger plays well. Nobody can.
Retief Goosen (8 to
1): Case of horses for courses. Goosen has proved he has a U.S. Open
game and the New York crowd won't bother him. Could anything bother the
unflappable Goose? An Old West saloon brawl? An attacking bear?
Steve Stricker (8 to 1): He's playing really well right now and this is a good spot for him.
Henrik
Stenson (10 to 1): His game is now at the level where he must be
included in the group of contenders. Plus he's not afraid of Tiger,
which is not true for most guys in the field.
Guys Who Could Maybe Win if Everything, and I Mean Everything, Goes Their Way
Padraig
Harrington (10 to 1): His form has been down this year and he hasn't
challenged. Winning a major has more to do with how you're playing at
the time than who you are.
Zach Johnson (12 to 1): His ball flight is a low draw which
is not great for the U.S. Open. At Bethpage, you need a high, soft shot
and Johnson doesn't have one. On the plus side, he's having a good year
and we know he can win a big one.
Paul Casey (15 to 1): He is a popular
dark-horse pick, but I don't see it. Casey is the one guy other than
Sergio I can see being negatively affected by the New York crowd. (The fans haven't forgotten his controversial Ryder Cup comments about Americans.) They
say you don't win the Open, the Open wins you. He doesn't feel ready
yet.
Brian Gay (15 to 1): He's not
great on long courses, but he's great on tight courses. If you can win
at Harbour Town, you can compete at a U.S. Open. Plus, he's playing
well right now and that's so important.
Jim Furyk (18 to 1): You can't write off a former Open champ who can putt, but it's hard to see Furyk winning Bethpage.
Ernie
Els (20 to 1): I give Els an outside chance, although that might be
wishful thinking. He is playing a little better and he's had U.S. Open
success.
Tim Clark (20 to 1): Wouldn't be the first time a guy won his first tournament at the U.S. Open.
The Thanks-for-Coming, It-Was-Great-to-See-You Guys
Vijay Singh (25 to 1): His time has probably come and gone. He doesn't put well enough to win a U.S. Open.
Anthony
Kim (30 to 1): Doesn't have the intangibles yet to win majors. Plus, the
U.S. Open requires patience, which is not how he likes to play.
Throughout his career, this tournament will always give him trouble.
Remember, he never played well at the Amateur either. The Masters,
which rewards aggressiveness, is a much better fit for him.
Ian
Poulter (30 to 1), Camilo Villegas (30 to 1), Sean O'Hair (30 to 1),
Lee Westwood (35 to 1), Kenny Perry (35 to 1): These guys deserve a
mention, and here it is.
Rory McIlroy (40 to 1): He's not ready
for prime time. How on earth could he handle Tiger? Probably only
Cabrera, Mickelson and Ogilvy have what it takes to do that.
Rocco Mediate (50 to 1): He should just try to enjoy the week. He earned it.
The No-Frigging-Way-He-Can-Win Guy
Sergio
Garcia (100 to 1): There's no way in hell he wins this tournament. He lacks all
of the intangibles it takes to win majors. He whines, he can't putt and
he's got no fight in him. Wrong place, wrong time, wrong guy.
Jerry posts:
Jeff posts: