Reflections on the Republican Convention
1. Republican delegates left St. Paul much happier and enthusiastic than they had expected to be. Though John McCain has never been the darling of the Republican base, they think that he can win. Sarah Palin wowed the Party's activists and aroused massive public attention. Her acceptance speech drew a TV audience only slightly smaller that Obama's (despite being on fewer networked channels) and significantly bigger than Biden's.
2. On pretty well every objective criterion, this ought to be the Democrats' year. The Republicans have held the White House for two terms and their incumbent President is hugely unpopular. The economy is in trouble. Democrat registrations have boomed while Republican registrations have fallen by one million since 2004. Obama's success in fundraising is enabling him to out spend his opponent. Every pundit expects the congressional elections to produce bigger Democrat majorities in both Houses and no President has ever been elected who did not add at least some seats to his Party's tally in one or other House. Republican strategists say privately that this is a tough election in which they are the underdogs.
3. Against that background, it is remarkable that the polls show the Presidential race as being so close. Probably, no-one but McCain, with his record of independent thinking, straight talk and transparent integrity could have made this happen. To win, he has to reach out to independents and Democrats and Sarah Palin must not only inspire the base but win over blue collar families who don't think of themselves as ardent Republicans.
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