Aegis Equities Research

Australian Equity Strategy

Strategy Recommended Retail Portfolios: Monthly Review for September 2009 20/10/2009 14:13
We review the performance of our recommended retail portfolios for September 2009.

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Energy

Roc Oil (ROC) 3Q09 Activities Report 22/10/2009 18:48
Production was 872,279boe, down 7% on the previous quarter, mainly due to the ongoing production constraints at the BMG asset... + more Production was 872,279boe, down 7% on the previous quarter, mainly due to the ongoing production constraints at the BMG asset resulting from well. Offsetting this somewhat was a better performance from Zhao Dong as new production capacity and facilities resulted in a 14% rise in output. Revenue was US$51.2M, up 3%, as stronger oil prices offset declining volume. ROC has maintained production guidance at between 10,000 and 11,000bopd and ended the quarter with a net cash position of US$12.4M. - less

Santos (STO) 3Q09 Report: No surprises, solid production result 22/10/2009 15:09
Production for the quarter was 13.9mmboe, up 4% on the 2Q09 and up 5% on 3Q08. Crude production rose 11%... + more Production for the quarter was 13.9mmboe, up 4% on the 2Q09 and up 5% on 3Q08. Crude production rose 11% on 2Q09 driven by STO's Carnarvon Basin interests. Sales revenue was $557M, up 15% on the previous quarter due to higher production and oil prices. All 2009 guidance, including production of 53-56mmboe, has been maintained. Following our oil and FX forecast review our price target has increased 6% and we maintain our NEUTRAL ST and LT views. - less

Woodside (WPL) 3Q09 Production Report 23/10/2009 17:02
Production was 20.6mmboe, up 6% on pp. WPL maintains FY09 guidance between 81 and 86mmboe. Sales revenue increased 13% on... + more Production was 20.6mmboe, up 6% on pp. WPL maintains FY09 guidance between 81 and 86mmboe. Sales revenue increased 13% on pp with higher sales volumes and stronger commodity prices outweighing adverse currency movements. Pluto 1 remains on track and within budget. Engineering and design work has commenced for a train 2 and 3 expansion. Overall, WPL's 3Q09 report was in line with our expectation in terms of production although the company reported revenues slightly under our forecast. - less

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Materials

Newcrest Mining (NCM) 3Q09 Production Report 22/10/2009 16:26
NCM's 3Q09 gold production was 377,000oz, down 22% YoY and 5% QoQ. Copper production was steady YoY at ~21,300t. Lower... + more NCM's 3Q09 gold production was 377,000oz, down 22% YoY and 5% QoQ. Copper production was steady YoY at ~21,300t. Lower grade at Gosowong and slower commissioning at Hidden Valley were the main contributors to the weak production levels. Net cash costs rose 22% YoY to $436/oz. Nevertheless, full year production and cost guidance has been maintained. We have maintained our recommendations with a 12-month ADD and long-term NEUTRAL. - less

BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) 3Q09 Production Report 21/10/2009 16:59
BHP's 3Q09 production report indicated growth in petroleum products (+18% YoY), aluminium, iron ore and coking coal (+1% YoY). Declines... + more BHP's 3Q09 production report indicated growth in petroleum products (+18% YoY), aluminium, iron ore and coking coal (+1% YoY). Declines included copper (-8% YoY) and alumina (-2% YoY). Operational issues at Olympic Dam are expected to be rectified by 3QFY10. BHP believes China's re-stocking program is complete and there is little evidence yet of sustainable demand for metals emerging post the northern summer. Our ADD recommendation on the short and the long view is retained. - less

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Industrials

GRD Ltd (GRD) Vote in favour of AMEC takeover proposal 19/10/2009 17:19
AMEC plc is proposing to acquire GRD for 55cps cash via a scheme of arrangement. The GRD directors support the... + more AMEC plc is proposing to acquire GRD for 55cps cash via a scheme of arrangement. The GRD directors support the scheme. The independent expert concludes that the “Proposal is not fair but reasonable and, accordingly, the Proposal is in the best interests of shareholders”. There are a number of risks surrounding GRD, including the refinancing of a debt facility expiring in June 2010. Given these risks, we recommend shareholders vote in favour of the scheme. - less

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Consumer Discretionary

Austar (AUN) 3Q09 Result: Delivering solid operating metrics 22/10/2009 22:03
AUN delivered another positive result lifting recurring residential ARPU, reducing churn and increasing its subscriber base (+1.4% QoQ, +3.5% YoY).... + more AUN delivered another positive result lifting recurring residential ARPU, reducing churn and increasing its subscriber base (+1.4% QoQ, +3.5% YoY). MyStar penetration continues to gain traction with residential penetration now at 20%. Growth was slower than 3Q08, however subscriber adds in 3Q09 outperformed growth for the whole of 1H09. EBITDA grew 12% to $59.5M. Management expects FY09 to come in at the lower end of EBITDA guidance and stated AUN may fall slightly short of 750k subs by FY09. - less

Ten Network (TEN) FY09 Result: TEN sees Australian ad market fundamentals strengthening 23/10/2009 07:44
TEN reported a 40% fall in adjusted NPAT to $53.6M for FY09 which was slightly below our forecasts. FY09 Group... + more TEN reported a 40% fall in adjusted NPAT to $53.6M for FY09 which was slightly below our forecasts. FY09 Group revenue fell 10% with TV down 10% and Outdoor down 11.4%. 4Q09 offered a turnaround in performance with TV up slightly on pcp and pp. TEN declared no final dividend. Executive Chairman, Mr Falloon, said “the advertising market continued to be difficult during 4Q09, however there were clear signs of market stability and improvement”. We retain ST and LT views due to valuation grounds. - less

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Consumer Staple

Woolworths (WOW) 1Q10 Sales: Powering ahead 20/10/2009 16:49
WOW reported 1Q10 group sales of $13.4B, up 4.2% on 1Q09 (but up 7.4% if petrol sales are excluded). Australian... + more WOW reported 1Q10 group sales of $13.4B, up 4.2% on 1Q09 (but up 7.4% if petrol sales are excluded). Australian Food and Liquor and Consumer Electronics stood out, rising 8% and 13%, respectively. The Everyday Reward card link to Qantas is helping drive sales. We have modestly increased sales growth and margin forecasts for Australian and NZ supermarkets and Consumer Electronics. Our EPS forecasts for FY10 and FY11 have increased by 4.7% and our 12-month target price has increased by 8%. ADD. - less

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