Is This Detroit's Last Winter?

"The American people made Ford Motor Company what it is. We have nothing the public did not give us. No surplus exists for personal benefit — every surplus is provided for future use. The future is here, and we are going to do our utmost — risk everything, if necessary — to use this surplus which the public, through its dealings with us, has provided, to see if we cannot make what the country needs most — work, jobs."
— Henry Ford, Feb. 11, 1932

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This is the thanks you get for creating the middle class, Henry. In the throes of the biggest auto swoon since 1931, the headmen of Detroit go hat in hand to Washington to try to keep their once mighty industry upright for a couple of months and are treated as if they had invented the four-wheel-drive subprime mortgage. AIG torpedoes the entire economy and gets a $150 billion handout; Citigroup takes risks no sane manufacturing company would even contemplate and is rewarded with a $20 billion federal bailout. And the car guys?

The Detroit Three recently presented detailed restructuring plans to Congress — an application for loans and credit lines to tide them over until the economy rebounds. U.S. auto sales were down more than 30% in October — even Toyota wasn't spared. Detroit wants $34 billion to shelter 3 million jobs and $300 billion worth of business. The first time the companies came calling, on Nov. 19 and 20, Congress blew a radiator. "Even though all Americans want this industry to succeed, I cannot support a plan to spend taxpayer money to bail them out" is the way Spencer Bachus, the ranking Republican on the Committee on Financial Services, got the House hearings going. The incoming Administration is not holding out much hope that Congress can find a solution in the coming weeks. Instead, it is looking at what options — and pots of money — will be available once Barack Obama takes office.

What the CEOs of the Big Three have discovered is a nation suffering Detroit fatigue. Americans may not know squat about collateralized debt obligations, but as a nation we have been defined by car worship. We are angry at our car gods — who for too many years made too many clunkers — because we have owned the Dodge Aries K cars, Mercury Montereys and Chevy Chev-ettes they produced. So the citizens and the pols are irked to have to throw these companies a lifeline, even though they probably should do it for the good of the economy. An out-of-business GM (or even a bankrupt, reorganized one) is more than just a dead factory here and there. "There are real risks of cascading bankruptcy and then supply-side seizures," Columbia economist Jeffrey Sachs warned Congress, meaning that the ability of all car companies simply to make cars would be in jeopardy. The negative feedback in the supply chain would hurt partsmakers and dealers and even extend to retailers, restaurants and banks. But others argue that bankruptcy is exactly what GM needs, despite the dislocations.

GM, which is burning $2 billion a month, requested $18 billion in loans and credit lines — $4 billion for December. For that money, it will slash the number of plants it runs, the number of brands it makes and the number of dealers who sell them. It proposed cutting its hourly manufacturing costs in half. CEO Rick Wagoner agreed to work for $1 a year. GM's business is going down fast because consumers are already shying away from a potentially bankrupt company — which is part of GM's argument for immediate funding.

Ford, which is in much better fiscal shape, asked for a standby credit line of $9 billion. The privately held Chrysler is going to need a $7 billion bridge loan, and it's willing to give equity to the government.

Importantly, all three companies promised to make money by 2012, even in a worst-case scenario of selling just 12 million cars and light trucks annually — 4 million fewer than in 2007. The key is a revamped portfolio more heavily weighted to smaller cars and crossovers, as well as to hybrids and electrics that are far more efficient than the current fleet. That's crucial because Detroit currently loses money making cars in North America. You see the problem.

Most of these plans were on the drawing board before the global financial collapse made the situation more dire. This, in essence, is a last-chance opportunity. If Congress provides cover, the Detroit Three can try to rescale their manufacturing capacity to their respective market shares — or even below. GM, for instance, has lost 7 market-share points, falling to 22%, in the past 10 years. It plans to slash costs by an additional $7 billion by 2012. "It's all about survival," says Van Conway of Conway MacKenzie & Dunleavy, a crisis-management and turnaround firm in Birmingham, Mich.

(See the 50 Worst Cars of All-Time here.)

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