This is interesting. On the WSJ's blog Political Perceptions Rhodes Cook argues we may be headed for a Dewey v. Truman-type shocker:

Why bring up the campaign of 1948 now? Because from this vantage point, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama could be moving dangerously close to reprising the role of the imperious Mr. Dewey. That would leave to his Republican rival, Sen. John McCain, the part of Mr. Truman as the scrappy underdog, a crowd-pleasing role that the Arizona senator relishes auditioning for.

Yet over on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, the same Rhodes Cook writes that close presidential elections are not the norm and those who think this one might be close should think again:

The last two presidential contests have seen the two parties battle to a virtual tie, with Democrats dominating the populous Northeast and Pacific Coast and Republicans enjoying hegemony in the South, the Plains states and the Mountain West.

Yet conditions have steadily changed in recent years to the Democrats' advantage. The Bush administration, defined by the seemingly unending war in Iraq, has reached almost historic depths of disapproval. Economic conditions are worsening. Republicans have already lost both houses of Congress, and recent voter registration trends clearly favor the Democrats.

Whether this is enough to produce a map-changing, watershed election in 2008 remains to be seen. But don't bet against it... For one point that history makes is that to have three closely contested presidential elections in a row would just not be normal.

Granted, these arguments aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. Still, I'm confused. On one hand Cook is arguing we could be headed for a McCain upset in the Truman tradition (despite trailing in the polls until election day Truman beat Dewey 50-45 in the popular vote and 303 to 189 in the electoral vote), on the other hand he's telling us not to bet against a map-shattering Obama blowout. So which does he think is the more likely scenario?

I suppose the fact Cook can make both arguments simultaneously just goes to show how volatile and unpredictable this election is at the moment.

In the National Journal cover story today, Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy lays out four reasons that Republicans are in such bad shape in Senate races this year: political climate, math, money, and retirements. As Duffy writes, the GOP would see losing just four seats as a "moral victory" and are bracing for a five-to-seven seat loss.

The "math" and "retirements" factors center on the fact that Republicans are defending 23 seats this year, including five open seats (Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico and Virginia) and two seats up for special election (Wyoming and Mississippi). Democrats, meanwhile, are defending just 12 seats, all with returning incumbents. Only one, Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, is considered vulnerable.

One way the National Republican Senatorial Committee hopes to keep its losses down, as we wrote earlier this week, is on the issue of energy, which NRSC chair John Ensign said could be a winning issue for the party because of its support for expanding domestic drilling. "We are for alternative, clean, green conservation, but we're also for drilling," Ensign said Tuesday.

Last week JFK blurted out "tar baby" on MSNBC, which fortunately for him the mainstream media covered the way they have John Edwards' reputed love child, which is to say, not at all.

- Howie Carr ripping John Kerry in the Boston Herald today.

The bad economic news just keeps streaming out. Unemployment in July went up two tenths of a percent from June to 5.7%:

The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in July (-51,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries, while health care and mining continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.

Here's a look at payroll numbers since 2000. Obviously, conventional wisdom suggests the red lines are not the trend John McCain would like to see heading into November:

Once proud US car maker posts massive Q2 loss:

General Motors Corp. reported today a $15.5 billion loss in the second quarter, the third-largest quarterly loss in the company's 100-year history, which comes amid a weak auto and housing market, costly strikes at American Axle, massive restructuring and a money-losing financial unit.

Folks in Michigan have been understandably grumbling and asking the question: the government bailed out Bear Stearns and Fannie & Freddie, so why does it not seem interested in coming to the rescue of GM? Such is the slippery slope that government interventions puts us on.

In the Headlines

"Obama got no bounce in polls from foreign tour" (David Lightman, McClatchy) - Barack Obama got no lasting boost from his ballyhooed trip last week to Europe and the Middle East, according to new national and swing state polls released Thursday.

"McCain Camp Says Obama Is Playing 'Race Card'" (Michael Cooper and Michael Powell, New York Times) - Senator John McCain’s campaign accused Senator Barack Obama on Thursday of playing "the race card," citing his remarks that Republicans would try to scare voters by pointing out that he "doesn't look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills."

"McCain, Obama Tilt Over Taxes" (Laura Meckler, Wall Street Journal) - Sen. John McCain continues to slam rival Barack Obama for wanting to raise taxes on Social Security, even as he periodically explains that he might be willing to do the same.

"Campaigns' Iraq Stances Seem to Hit a Middle Ground" (Karen DeYoung, Washington Post) - When President Bush announced his plan, in January 2007, to launch a "surge" of U.S. troops in Iraq, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) called the initiative the "best possible chance" for success and proposed a Senate resolution supporting it. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) called the troop buildup "another tired and failed policy" and introduced a bill opposing it.

On the Morning Shows

Early Show - McCain campaign manager Rick Davis, arguing how Obama has played the race card: "In three separate appearances Obama made direct allusions that McCain himself would come after him in this way and we're not going to let this card get played, we're not going to put up with this. Since then I think the Obama campaign has retracted from this."

Obama strategist David Axelrod: "Obama never called McCain a racist, the audience laughed and applauded and it's because he's not exactly from central casting for presidential candidates. The quote itself was not interpreted that way from the audience. The McCain campaign has made the decision it's going to run 100% negative ads. This is not the John McCain we expected in this campaign."

From Late Night

Leno:

(Greg Bobrinskoy contributed to the Morning Report.)

The Obama campaign has launched a new site called McCain's Low Road Express to debunk ads and statements by the McCain campaign. The name comes from a New York Times editorial published yesterday that was critical of recent campaign tactics by McCain. Highlighted on the site now are newspaper editorials and videos that were critical of McCain's latest "Celeb" ad.

On an afternoon conference call announcing the site's launch, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said the site would be updated regularly and hopes the public and media use it often. "Unfortunately we think that the tenor of his campaign is unlikely to change," Plouffe said about the negative ads McCain has run. "People ought to just buckle up their seatbelts, because we think this is what their campaign is going to be all about."

Also on the call was Susan Eisenhower, granddaughter of the former president, who is a Republican unhappy with the tone of McCain's campaign. "I don't think it befits the campaign to have anyone's patriotism called into question, or anyone's credentials," Eisenhower said, "because we have two well-qualified people running for President of the United States."

Plouffe said ads like "Celeb" are "frivolous and demeans the dialogue of the campaign."

RACINE, WI - A young woman just asked Senator McCain if he'd gone back on his promise not to "sling mud" in this campaign with the ad his campaign released yesterday comparing Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. McCain responded that there are contrasts to be drawn and his campaign is merely drawing them based on substance, not style.

"Campaigns are tough, but I'm proud of the campaign we're running," McCain told the crowd. "We're proud of that commercial."

UPDATE: Here's the full quote, transcribed from tape:

First of all, let me say that there are differences, and we drawing those differences. I said earlier that I admire his campaign, but what we're talking about here is substance and not style. Campaigns are tough, but I'm proud of the campaign that we have run, I'm proud of the issues we are trying to address with the American people. And, again, I would hope that Senator Obama would join me so that we could discuss this - as he said he wanted a "duel" over taxes, as I think he said yesterday.

All I can say is that we are proud of that commercial. We think Americans need to know that I believe that we should be basing this campaign on what we can do for Americans here at home and how we can make America safe and prosperous, and that's the theme of my campaign.

I should also note that the crowd responded very favorably to McCain's answer.

Indeed, the very next questioner from the audience was another young woman who announced to the crowd: "I'm 18 and I just have to say that Obama, like, terrifies me. And I would just like to say I think you need to call him on every shot. Don't let him get away with a single thing. We can't afford it." This, too, generated hearty applause from the crowd.

RACINE, WI - John McCain is about to take the stage for one of his "Straight Talk Town Hall" meetings here in Racine, Wisconsin, a city of approximately 80,000 located 20 miles south of Milwaukee. After sitting through a 10 minute long bio of McCain's military service, the fairly enthusiastic crowd of roughly 500 watched is listening to the Chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party introduce Senator McCain.

More updates in a bit.

RACINE, WI - Things have been ratcheted up to a whole new level today. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis just released a statement saying, "Barack Obama has played the race card, and he played it from the bottom of the deck. It's divisive, negative, shameful and wrong."

Full text of the McCain press release below the jump.

Continue reading "McCain Camp: Obama Played Race Card" »